Potential impact of blood cholesterol guidelines on statin treatment in the U.S. population using interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline was a paradigm shift in lipid management and identified the four statin-benefit groups. Many have studied the guideline's potential impact, but few have investigated its potential long-term impact on MACE. Furthermore, most studies also ignored the confounding effect from the earlier release of generic atorvastatin in Dec 2011. METHODS: To evaluate the potential (long-term) impact of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release in Nov 2013 in the U.S., we investigated the association of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline with the trend changes in 5-Year MACE survival and three other statin-related outcomes (statin use, optimal statin use, and statin adherence) while controlling for generic atorvastatin availability using interrupted time series analysis, called the Chow's test. Specifically, we conducted a retrospective study using U.S. nationwide de-identified claims and electronic health records from Optum Labs Database Warehouse (OLDW) to follow the trends of 5-Year MACE survival and statin-related outcomes among four statin-benefit groups that were identified in the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline. Then, Chow's test was used to discern trend changes between generic atorvastatin availability and guideline potential impact. RESULTS: 197,021 patients were included (ASCVD: 19,060; High-LDL: 33,907; Diabetes: 138,159; High-ASCVD-Risk: 5,895). After the guideline release, the long-term trend (slope) of 5-Year MACE Survival for the Diabetes group improved significantly (P = 0.002). Optimal statin use for the ASCVD group also showed immediate improvement (intercept) and long-term positive changes (slope) after the release (P < 0.001). Statin uses did not have significant trend changes and statin adherence remained unchanged in all statin-benefit groups. Although no other statistically significant trend changes were found, overall positive trend change or no changes were observed after the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release. CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline release is associated with trend improvements in the long-term MACE Survival for Diabetes group and optimal statin use for ASCVD group. These significant associations might indicate a potential positive long-term impact of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline on better health outcomes for primary prevention groups and an immediate potential impact on statin prescribing behaviors in higher-at-risk groups. However, further investigation is required to confirm the causal effect of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline.

Development and Validation of the Pharmacological Statin-Associated Muscle Symptoms Risk Stratification Score Using Electronic Health Record Data.

Statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMS) can lead to statin nonadherence. This paper aims to develop a pharmacological SAMS risk stratification (PSAMS-RS) score using a previously developed PSAMS phenotyping algorithm that distinguishes objective vs. nocebo SAMS using electronic health record (EHR) data. Using our PSAMS phenotyping algorithm, SAMS cases and controls were identified from Minnesota Fairview EHR, with the statin user cohort divided into derivation (January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018) and validation (January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020) cohorts. A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression model was applied to identify significant features for PSAMS. PSAMS-RS scores were calculated and the clinical utility of stratifying PSAMS risk was assessed by comparing hazard ratios (HRs) between fourth vs. first score quartiles. PSAMS cases were identified in 1.9% (310/16,128) of the derivation and 1.5% (64/4,182) of the validation cohorts. Sixteen out of 38 clinical features were determined to be significant predictors for PSAMS risk. Patients within the fourth quartile of the PSAMS scores had an over sevenfold (HR: 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.03-12.45, derivation cohort) or sixfold (HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 2.15-17.45, validation cohort) higher hazard of developing PSAMS vs. those in their respective first quartile. The PSAMS-RS score is a simple tool to stratify patients' risk of developing PSAMS after statin initiation which could inform clinician-guided pre-emptive measures to prevent PSAMS-related statin nonadherence.

Personalized statin treatment plan using counterfactual approach with multi-objective optimization over benefits and risks.

Background: Statins are a class of drugs that lower cholesterol levels in the blood by inhibiting an enzyme called 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase. High cholesterol levels can lead to plaque buildup in the arteries, which can cause Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease(ASCVD). Statins can reduce the risk of ASCVD events by about 25-35% but they might be associated with symptoms such as muscle pain, liver damage, or diabetes. As a result, this leads to a strong reason to discontinue statin therapy, which increases the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality and becomes a public-health problem.To solve this problem, in the previous work, we proposed a framework to produce a proactive strategy, called a personalized statin treatment plan (PSTP) to minimize the risks of statin-associated symptoms and therapy discontinuation when prescribing statin. In our previous PSTP framework, three limitations remain, and they can influence PSTP usability: (1) Not taking the counterfactual predictions and confounding bias into account. (2) The balance between multiple drug-prescribing objectives (especially trade-off objectives), such as tradeoff between benefits and risks. (3) Evaluating PSTP in retrospective data. Objectives: This manuscript aimed to provide solutions for the three abovementioned problems to improve PSTP robustness to produce a proactive strategy for statin prescription that can maximize the benefits (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction) and minimize risks (statin-associated symptoms and therapy discontinuation) at the same time. Methods: We applied overlapping weighting counterfactual survival risk prediction (CP), multiple objective optimization (MOO), and clinical trial simulation (CTS) which consists of Random Arms, Clinical Guideline arms, PSTP Arms, and Practical Arms to improve the PSTP framework and usability. Results: In addition to highly balanced covariates, in the CTS, the revised PSTP showed improvements in lowering the SAS risks overall compared to other arms across all time points by at most 7.5% to at least 1.0% (Fig. 8(a)). It also has the better flexibility of identifying the optimal Statin across all time points within one year. Conclusion: We demonstrated feasibility of robust and trustworthy counterfactual survival risk prediction model. In CTS, we also demonstrated the PSTP with Pareto optimization can personalize optimal balance between Statin benefits and risks.

Development and application of pharmacological statin-associated muscle symptoms phenotyping algorithms using structured and unstructured electronic health records data.

Importance: Statins are widely prescribed cholesterol-lowering medications in the United States, but their clinical benefits can be diminished by statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMS), leading to discontinuation. Objectives: In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a pharmacological SAMS clinical phenotyping algorithm using electronic health records (EHRs) data from Minnesota Fairview. Materials and Methods: We retrieved structured and unstructured EHR data of statin users and manually ascertained a gold standard set of SAMS cases and controls using the published SAMS-Clinical Index tool from clinical notes in 200 patients. We developed machine learning algorithms and rule-based algorithms that incorporated various criteria, including ICD codes, statin allergy, creatine kinase elevation, and keyword mentions in clinical notes. We applied the best-performing algorithm to the statin cohort to identify SAMS. Results: We identified 16 889 patients who started statins in the Fairview EHR system from 2010 to 2020. The combined rule-based (CRB) algorithm, which utilized both clinical notes and structured data criteria, achieved similar performance compared to machine learning algorithms with a precision of 0.85, recall of 0.71, and F1 score of 0.77 against the gold standard set. Applying the CRB algorithm to the statin cohort, we identified the pharmacological SAMS prevalence to be 1.9% and selective risk factors which included female gender, coronary artery disease, hypothyroidism, and use of immunosuppressants or fibrates. Discussion and Conclusion: Our study developed and validated a simple pharmacological SAMS phenotyping algorithm that can be used to create SAMS case/control cohort to enable further analysis which can lead to the development of a SAMS risk prediction model.

Development and validation of the pharmacological statin-associated muscle symptoms risk stratification (PSAMS-RS) score using real-world electronic health record data.

Introduction: Statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMS) contribute to the nonadherence to statin therapy. In a previous study, we successfully developed a pharmacological SAMS (PSAMS) phenotyping algorithm that distinguishes objective versus nocebo SAMS using structured and unstructured electronic health records (EHRs) data. Our aim in this paper was to develop a pharmacological SAMS risk stratification (PSAMS-RS) score using these same EHR data. Method: Using our PSAMS phenotyping algorithm, SAMS cases and controls were identified using University of Minnesota (UMN) Fairview EHR data. The statin user cohort was temporally divided into derivation (1/1/2010 to 12/31/2018) and validation (1/1/2019 to 12/31/2020) cohorts. First, from a feature set of 38 variables, a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression model was fitted to identify important features for PSAMS cases and their coefficients. A PSAMS-RS score was calculated by multiplying these coefficients by 100 and then adding together for individual integer scores. The clinical utility of PSAMS-RS in stratifying PSAMS risk was assessed by comparing the hazard ratio (HR) between 4th vs 1st score quartile. Results: PSAMS cases were identified in 1.9% (310/16128) of the derivation and 1.5% (64/4182) of the validation cohort. After fitting LASSO regression, 16 out of 38 clinical features were determined to be significant predictors for PSAMS risk. These factors are male gender, chronic pulmonary disease, neurological disease, tobacco use, renal disease, alcohol use, ACE inhibitors, polypharmacy, cerebrovascular disease, hypothyroidism, lymphoma, peripheral vascular disease, coronary artery disease and concurrent uses of fibrates, beta blockers or ezetimibe. After adjusting for statin intensity, patients in the PSAMS score 4th quartile had an over seven-fold (derivation) (HR, 7.1; 95% CI, 4.03-12.45) and six-fold (validation) (HR, 6.1; 95% CI, 2.15-17.45) higher hazard of developing PSAMS versus those in 1st score quartile. Conclusion: The PSAMS-RS score can be a simple tool to stratify patients' risk of developing PSAMS after statin initiation which can facilitate clinician-guided preemptive measures that may prevent potential PSAMS-related statin non-adherence.

Development and Application of Pharmacological Statin-Associated Muscle Symptoms Phenotyping Algorithms Using Structured and Unstructured Electronic Health Records Data.

Background: Statins are widely prescribed cholesterol-lowering medications in the US, but their clinical benefits can be diminished by statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMS), leading to discontinuation. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a pharmacological SAMS clinical phenotyping algorithm using electronic health records (EHRs) data from Minnesota Fairview. Methods: We retrieved structured and unstructured EHR data of statin users and manually ascertained a gold standard set of SAMS cases and controls using the SAMS-CI tool from clinical notes in 200 patients. We developed machine learning algorithms and rule-based algorithms that incorporated various criteria, including ICD codes, statin allergy, creatine kinase elevation, and keyword mentions in clinical notes. We applied the best performing algorithm to the statin cohort to identify SAMS. Results: We identified 16,889 patients who started statins in the Fairview EHR system from 2010-2020. The combined rule-based (CRB) algorithm, which utilized both clinical notes and structured data criteria, achieved similar performance compared to machine learning algorithms with a precision of 0.85, recall of 0.71, and F1 score of 0.77 against the gold standard set. Applying the CRB algorithm to the statin cohort, we identified the pharmacological SAMS prevalence to be 1.9% and selective risk factors which included female gender, coronary artery disease, hypothyroidism, use of immunosuppressants or fibrates. Conclusion: Our study developed and validated a simple pharmacological SAMS phenotyping algorithm that can be used to create SAMS case/control cohort for further analysis such as developing SAMS risk prediction model.

Producing personalized statin treatment plans to optimize clinical outcomes using big data and machine learning.

Almost half of Americans 65 years of age and older take statins, which are highly effective in lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and reducing all-cause mortality. Unfortunately, ∼50% of patients prescribed statins do not obtain these critical benefits because they discontinue use within one year of treatment initiation. Therefore, statin discontinuation has been identified as a major public health concern due to the increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs associated with ASCVD. In clinical practice, statin-associated symptoms (SAS) often result in dose reduction or discontinuation of these life-saving medications. Currently, physician decision-making in statin prescribing typically relies on only a few patient data elements. Physicians then employ reactive strategies to manage SAS concerns after they manifest (e.g., offering an alternative statin treatment plan or a statin holiday). A preferred approach would be a proactive strategy to identify the optimal treatment plan (statin agent + dosage) to prevent/minimize SAS and statin discontinuation risks for a particular individual prior to initiating treatment. Given that using a single patient's data to identify the optimal statin regimen is inadequate to ensure that the harms of statin use are minimized, alternative tactics must be used to address this problem. In this proof-of-concept study, we explore the use of a machine-learning personalized statin treatment plan (PSTP) platform to assess the numerous statin treatment plans available and identify the optimal treatment plan to prevent/minimize harms (SAS and statin discontinuation) for an individual. Our study leveraged de-identified administrative insurance claims data from the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, which includes medical and pharmacy claims, laboratory results, and enrollment records for more than 130 million commercial and Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees, to successfully develop the PSTP platform. In this study, we found three results: (1) the PSTP platform recommends statin prescription with significantly lower risks of SAS and discontinuation compared with standard-practice, (2) because machine learning can consider many more dimensions of data, the performance of the proactive prescription strategy with machine-learning support is better, especially the artificial neural network approach, and (3) we demonstrate a method of incorporating optimization constraints for individualized patient-centered medicine and shared decision making. However, more research into its clinical use is needed. These promising results show the feasibility of using machine learning and big data approaches to produce personalized healthcare treatment plans and support the precision-health agenda.

A Population-Based Study of Simvastatin Drug-Drug Interactions in Cardiovascular Disease Patients.

Simvastatin is a commonly used medication for lipid management and cardiovascular disease, however, the risk of adverse events (AEs) with its use increases via drug-drug interaction (DDI) exposures. Patients were extracted if initially diagnosed with cardiovascular disease and newly initiated simvastatin therapy. The cohort was divided into a DDI-exposed group and a non-DDI exposed group. The DDI-exposed group was further divided into gemfibrozil, clarithromycin, and erythromycin exposure groups. The outcome was defined as a composite of predefined AEs. Our results show that the simvastatin-DDI group had a higher illness burden with longer simvastatin exposure time and more medical care follow-up compared with the simvastatin-non-DDI exposed group. AEs occurred more frequently in subjects exposed to interacting drugs with a higher risk for clarithromycin and erythromycin exposed subjects than for gemfibrozil subjects.