ABSTRACT
Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and chronic cutaneous leishmaniasis (CCL) are known to overlap in Central Tunisia. Sandflies were collected using sticky traps and CDC light-traps set in rodent burrows at the ecotones surrounding the village, in houses, and in animal shelters during July-October 2017, 2018, and 2019. A total of 17,175 sandflies were collected during the three sandfly seasons and identified morphologically to species level. Of a total of 18 sandfly species reported in Tunisia, 16 were identified in this mixed focus of ZCL and CCL. Except for the rocky mountainous areas, Phlebotomus papatasi was the most abundant sandfly species in all biotopes. In the mountainous areas, Phlebotomus sergenti is the most abundant sandfly species belonging to the genus Phlebotomus. Female sandflies were tested for the presence of Leishmania species by PCR. The overall infection prevalence of sandflies with Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica was 0.42% and 0.065%, respectively. The sequencing of PCR-amplified ITS1 products showed that L. major is the predominant species in all biotopes and transmitted mostly by P. papaptasi followed by Phlebotomus longicuspis and Sergentomyia species. Leishmania tropica was detected in Phlebotomus sergenti and in Phlebotomus longicuspis collected in bedrooms and in the ecotone of rocky mountainous areas. Our results provided strong evidence that the proximity of human settlements to biotopes of rodent reservoir hosts of L. major and of L. tropica resulted into the cocirculation of both Leishmania species leading to a mixed focus of ZCL and CCL. The epidemiology of leishmaniases in North Africa is highly complex by the high diversity of sandfly vectors and their associated Leishmania species, leading to a mixed form of cutaneous leishmaniasis. It is of major epidemiological importance to point to the risk of spillover from rural to urban areas leading to the anthroponization of cutaneous leishmaniasis. Therefore, efficient control to reduce the indoor abundance of sandfly vectors in order to reduce the incidence of leishmaniases is urgently needed.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: When vaccines against the novel COVID-19 were available in Senegal, many questions were raised. How long should non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) be maintained during vaccination roll-out? What are the best vaccination strategies? METHODS: In this study, we used an age-structured dynamic mathematical model. This model uses parameters based on SARS-CoV-2 virus, information on different types of NPIs, epidemiological and demographic data, some parameters relating to hospitalisations and vaccination in Senegal. RESULTS: In all scenarios explored, the model predicts a larger third epidemic wave of COVID-19 in terms of new cases and deaths than the previous waves. In a context of limited vaccine supply, vaccination alone will not be sufficient to control the epidemic, and the continuation of NPIs is necessary to flatten the epidemic curve. Assuming 20% of the population have been vaccinated, the optimal period to relax NPIs would be a few days from the last peak. Regarding the prioritisation of age groups to be vaccinated, the model shows that it is better to vaccinate individuals aged 5-60 years and not just the elderly (over 60 years) and those in high-risk groups. This strategy could be more cost-effective for the government, as it would reduce the high costs associated with hospitalisation. In terms of vaccine distribution, the optimal strategy would be to allocate full dose to the elderly. If vaccine doses are limited, half dose followed by full dose would be sufficient for people under 40 years because whether they receive half or full dose, the reduction in hospitalisations would be similar and their death-to-case ratio is very low. CONCLUSIONS: This study could be presented as a decision support tool to help devise strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic and help the Ministry of Health to better manage and allocate the available vaccine doses.
