Are Late Bloomers Real? Identification and Comparison of Late-Onset Offending Patterns from Ages 14-40.

Numerous studies have identified a late-onset pattern of offending, yet debate remains over whether this pattern is real or attributable to measurement error. The goal of the present study is to identify whether this late-onset trajectory exists. We used prospective longitudinal data from the Rochester Youth Development Study and group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct developmental patterns in self-reported incidence of general delinquency from approximately ages 14 to age 31. We then examined and compared the means of general, violent, street, and property offending for individuals belonging to late bloomer, chronic, and low-level offending trajectories across three periods: 1) pre-onset (ages 14-17), 2) post-onset (ages 29-31), and, 3) for a subset of participants participating in a follow-up study, post-trajectory (ages 32-40). Results confirmed the existence of a distinct late bloomers offending trajectory characterized by low rates of delinquency throughout adolescence and high levels throughout adulthood. Furthermore, late bloomers had similar mean levels of delinquency as low-level offenders and that were considerably lower than chronic offenders in the pre-onset period and similar means of offending as chronic offenders that were considerably higher than low-level offenders in the post-onset and post-trajectory periods. Comparisons of these three groups on adolescent risk and protective factors indicated that late bloomers were more similar to individuals in the low-level trajectory and had fewer risk and more protective factors than individuals following a chronic trajectory. Contrary to prior work which attributes late-onset offending to reliance on official data which fails to detect adolescent offending, late bloomer offending appears to be a genuine phenomenon. These results lend greater support to dynamic theories of crime.

Intergenerational Continuity and Discontinuity in Substance Use: The Role of Concurrent Parental Marijuana Use.

PURPOSE: This study examines whether parental marijuana use that occurs during the life of a child impacts patterns of continuity and discontinuity in adolescent substance use among father-child dyads. METHODS: The study uses data from 263 father-child-mother triads involved in the Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS) and the Rochester Intergenerational Study (RIGS). We use a dual trajectory model is used to examine the research questions. RESULTS: Results suggest that both paternal and maternal marijuana use during the child's life increase the probability that a child will follow a moderate or high substance use trajectory during adolescence, beyond the risk incurred from paternal adolescent history of substance use. Some nuances related to the timing of concurrent parental marijuana use emerge across parent sex. CONCLUSION: Concurrent parental marijuana use predicts child's substance use beyond a parent's prior substance use history. The results highlight the important role of both caregivers in the explanation of patterns of discontinuity across generations, as well as the relevance of considering when the use occurred.

Proximal predictors of gun violence among adolescent males involved in crime.

The growing public health and legal concerns regarding gun violence has led to a call for research that investigates risk factors for gun violence across a variety of domains. Individual and sociocontextual risk factors have been associated with violence more broadly, and in some instances gun-carrying, however no prior research has investigated the role of these factors in explaining gun violence using longitudinal data. The current study utilized a subsample (N = 161) from the Pathways to Desistance Study, which is a longitudinal sample of serious adolescent offenders to evaluate interindividual and intraindividual differences in relevant risk factors of gun violence. Results suggest that there are a few key proximal individual-level and sociocontextual predictors for gun violence, including witnessing nongun violence, future orientation, and perceived personal rewards to crime. Findings demonstrate the salience of exposure to violence in contributing to gun violence and identify levers of action for public policy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Parallel-process trajectories of exposure to violence and psychological distress among justice-involved youth.

BACKGROUND: Researchers have raised awareness of high levels of violence exposure among justice-involved adolescents and its association with psychological distress, yet the relationship between the violence and psychological distress has rarely been studied longitudinally. AIM: This study aimed to gain understanding of the relationship between long-term exposure to violence and the development of psychological distress among justice-involved adolescents. METHODS: We examined exposure to violence and emergent psychological distress among adolescents using latent growth model analyses with a sample of 1,336 young people-male and female-who completed 10 follow-up interviews over 7 years as part of the Pathways to Desistance study. We tested four models: (a) changes in exposure to violence over time, (b) changes in psychological distress over time, (c) the contemporaneous, parallel processes of changes in exposure to violence and psychological distress over time, and (d) differences in the evolution of violence exposure and psychological distress across sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: For the sample as a whole, exposure to violence decreased over time, as did psychological distress, but their relationship to each other was consistent. There were individual differences, however, and the subgroup of young African Americans did not experience the reduction in exposure to violence reported by the young Whites and Hispanics. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Trajectories of exposure to violence and related psychological distress did not escalate over time as expected. In light of these findings, more research is needed on the heterogeneity of violence exposure and its negative psychological impacts.

Definitional Elasticity in the Measurement of Intergenerational Continuity in Substance Use.

Increasingly, three generation studies have investigated intergenerational (IG) continuity and discontinuity in substance use and related problem behaviors. However, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the conceptual definition of continuity or to different types of discontinuity (resilience and escalation) or to measurement sensitivity, which affects not only the magnitudes of observed continuity but also factors that correlate with this linkage. This study uses longitudinal data on 427 parent-child dyads from the Rochester IG Study to study continuity and discontinuity in substance use over ages 14-18. Results suggest that the degree of IG continuity, resilience, and escalation in adolescent substance use, as well as correlates of each, depend heavily on how heterogeneity in the behavior is taken into account.

The Relationships Among Exposure to Violence, Psychological Distress, and Gun Carrying Among Male Adolescents Found Guilty of Serious Legal Offenses: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Gun violence and psychological problems are often conflated in public discourse on gun safety. However, few studies have empirically assessed the effect of exposure to violence when exploring the association between gun carrying and psychological distress. OBJECTIVE: To examine the potential effect of exposure to violence on the associations between gun carrying and psychological distress among vulnerable adolescents. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: The Pathways to Desistance study, a study of youths found guilty of a serious criminal offense in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, or Maricopa County, Arizona. PARTICIPANTS: 1170 male youths aged 14 to 19 years who had been found guilty of a serious criminal offense. MEASUREMENTS: Youths were assessed at baseline and at four 6-month intervals with regard to gun carrying ("Have you carried a gun?"), psychological distress (Global Severity Index), and exposure to violence (modified version of the Exposure to Violence Inventory). RESULTS: At the bivariate level, gun carrying was consistently associated with higher levels of psychological distress. However, the association between psychological distress and gun carrying diminished or disappeared when exposure to violence was considered. Exposure to violence (as either a victim or a witness) was significantly related to gun carrying at all follow-up assessments, with increased odds of gun carrying ranging from 1.43 to 1.87 with each additional report of exposure to violence. LIMITATIONS: The study sample was limited to justice-involved male youths. Precarrying distress and exposure to violence could not be fully captured because many participants had initiated gun carrying before baseline. CONCLUSION: In male youths involved in the criminal justice system, the relationship between psychological distress and gun carrying seems to be influenced by exposure to violence (either experiencing or witnessing it). Further study is warranted to explore whether interventions after exposure to violence could reduce gun carrying in this population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Explaining Adolescent Drug Use in Adjacent Generations: Testing the Generality of Theoretical Explanations.

We tested the assumption that theories of drug use are able to account for behavior across varying contexts and populations by examining whether control, learning, and elaborated theories provide similar explanations for adolescent drug use in adjacent generations. We used data from the Rochester Youth Development Study and Rochester Intergenerational Study which followed a sample of adolescents starting at age 14 and their oldest biological child. Cross-generational analysis between theoretical variables measured at age 14 and drug use measured at approximately ages 15 and 16 were used. Regression models testing for each theoretical framework found that in general, they appear to operate similarly in adjacent generations. We conducted 14 tests of equality for pairs of coefficients across the generations; no statistically significant differences are observed. Overall, these theories offer general explanations for adolescent drug use with respect to risk and protective factors for parents and their children. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

Effect of Gun Carrying on Perceptions of Risk Among Adolescent Offenders.

OBJECTIVES: We observed how perceptions of risks, costs, crime rewards, and violence exposure change as individual gun-carrying behavior changes among high-risk adolescents. METHODS: We analyzed a longitudinal study (2000-2010) of serious juvenile offenders in Maricopa County, Arizona, or Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, assessing within-person changes in risk and reward perceptions, and violence exposure as individuals initiated or ceased gun carrying. RESULTS: Despite being associated with heightened exposure to violence, gun carrying was linked to lower perceptions of risks and costs and higher perceived rewards of offending. Gun carrying was not time-stable, as certain individuals both started and stopped carrying during the study. Within-person changes in carrying guns were associated with shifting perceptions of risks, costs, and rewards of crime, and changes in exposure to violence in expected directions. CONCLUSIONS: Gun carrying reduces perceptions of risks associated with offending while increasing actual risk of violence exposure. This suggests that there is an important disconnect between perceptions and objective levels of safety among high-risk youths. Gun-carrying decisions may not only be influenced by factors of protection and self-defense, but also by perceptions of risks and reward associated with engaging in crime more generally.

Which matters most? Demographic, neuropsychological, personality, and situational factors in long-term marijuana and alcohol trajectories for justice-involved male youth.

Justice-involved youth have high rates of alcohol and marijuana use. However, little is known about what may drive these rates over time. Using a large-scale (N = 1,056; 41.4% African American, 33.5% Hispanic) longitudinal study with strong retention (M retention = 90% over Years 1-7), we utilized random-effects regression to determine the comparative contribution of four sets of factors in justice-involved males' patterns of marijuana and heavy alcohol use (number of times drunk) over 7 years of follow-up: demographic, personality, situational, and neuropsychological factors. Across both marijuana and heavy alcohol use models, three factors were particularly strong contributors to lower rates of substance use: (a) Hispanic ethnicity, (b) less exposure (street) time, and (c) better impulse control. Similarly, two factors were strong contributors to increased rates of marijuana and heavy alcohol use: (a) delinquent peers and (b) family member arrest. Together, these findings indicate the relative superiority of these independent variables over other categories (i.e., neuropsychological factors) in predicting high-risk youths' long-term (7-year) rates of substance use. These findings also suggest the importance of evaluating the connection of these areas for high-risk, adjudicated youth.

Comparing patterns and predictors of immigrant offending among a sample of adjudicated youth.

Research on immigration and crime has only recently started to consider potential heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns of immigrant offending. Guided by segmented assimilation and life course criminology frameworks, this article advances prior research on the immigration-crime nexus in three ways: using a large sample of high-risk adjudicated youth containing first and second generation immigrants; examining longitudinal trajectories of official and self-reported offending; and merging segmented assimilation and life course theories to distinguish between offending patterns. Data come from the Pathways to Desistance study containing detailed offending and socio-demographic background information on 1,354 adolescents (13.6 % female; n = 1,061 native-born; n = 210 second generation immigrants; n = 83 first generation immigrants) as they transition to young adulthood (aged 14-17 at baseline). Over 84 months we observe whether patterns of offending, and the correlates that may distinguish them, operate differently across immigrant generations. Collectively, this study offers the first investigation of whether immigrants, conditioned on being adjudicated, are characterized by persistent offending. Results show that first generation immigrants are less likely to be involved in serious offending and to evidence persistence in offending, and appear to be on a path toward desistance much more quickly than their peers. Further, assimilation and neighborhood disadvantage operate in unique ways across generational status and relate to different offending styles. The findings show that the risk for persistent offending is greatest among those with high levels of assimilation who reside in disadvantaged contexts, particularly among the second generation youth in the sample.

Do individual characteristics explain variation in sanction risk updating among serious juvenile offenders? Advancing the logic of differential deterrence.

Recent theoretical and empirical research in deterrence has detected evidence of differential deterrability, or that the effect of sanctions is not uniform across persons. Important questions in this area remain to be explored, and this study considered a central question: Whether important across-individual variability in risk perceptions can be tied to important individual-level factors. This article extends the Bayesian risk updating model developed by Anwar and Loughran (2011) to determine whether the weight individuals place on new offending information differs across persons on the basis of individual characteristics. Using longitudinal data from a sample of serious youthful offenders, we found that the effect of an arrest on updated risk perceptions differs as a function of IQ and early behavioral problems. In particular, individuals low in verbal IQ and those who display early behavioral problems place greater weight on new information, suggesting that individuals who are traditionally viewed as being high in criminal propensity are more affected by arrest such that they are more likely to increase their perceived risk of getting caught when offending after experiencing an arrest. Findings support the idea that high-propensity offenders are more responsive to formal sanctions, and thus (potentially) more deterrable, than low-propensity individuals.

Psychiatric symptoms and alcohol use in community violence by persons with a psychotic disorder or depression.

OBJECTIVE: Prior studies have shown a significant but modest association between mental disorders and violence and an increased risk in the presence of co-occurring substance use disorders. Categorical diagnoses, however, have limited utility when assessing dynamic risk state over time. This study used data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study to examine the relationship of symptom levels and alcohol use to violence in repeated observations within two diagnostic groups. METHODS: Participants with a primary categorical diagnosis of depression (N=386) or a psychotic disorder (N=201) were identified. Subscale scores for affective or positive symptoms from the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and self-reported alcohol consumption were tested in panel logistic models over five ten-week intervals for their concurrent and lagged relationship to violence. An interaction term between each type of symptom and alcohol use was also tested. RESULTS: In models including the amount of alcohol consumed and symptom levels, a high level of affective symptoms was associated with violence during the next follow-up period only for participants with depression. There was a significant interaction between alcohol use and affective symptoms for participants with depression. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship of symptoms and alcohol use to community violence should be considered in the context of the individual's primary diagnosis. Further characterization of interactions between symptoms and substance use in relation to violent behavior may allow for more effective assessment of risk state and interventions for violence prevention.

A longitudinal examination of serious adolescent offenders' perceptions of chances for success and engagement in behaviors accomplishing goals.

We examined antisocial adolescents' perceptions of the importance of and their ability to accomplish positive life outcomes (e.g., employment) and avoid negative ones (e.g., arrests) during their transition from adolescence to young adulthood. Participants were 1,354 adolescents from the Pathways to Desistance project, a multisite longitudinal study of seriously antisocial adolescents. Participants' perceptions of the importance and likelihood of accomplishing positive adult goals at one age uniquely predicted how often they engaged in behaviors that were consistent with these goals the following year. Our findings suggest that among serious adolescent offenders aspirations to achieve positive goals are related to engaging in behaviors that bring adolescents' current selves more in line with their aspired-to future selves. We discuss the implications of these findings for prevention and intervention efforts.

Predicting outcomes for youth transferred to adult court.

Extant research regarding juvenile transfer has focused primarily on the negative effects of current policies, with little consistent and rigorous work on the variation among the adolescents transferred to adult court and their later adjustment in the community. Using a sample of 193 transferred youth from Arizona, we consider how certain individual characteristics are related to four post-release outcomes (antisocial activity, re-arrest, re-institutionalization, and gainful activity). We find considerable variability in outcomes, with adjustment significantly and consistently related to certain legal and risk-need factors. These results indicate that some transferred youth may experience negative outcomes, and that refinements to transfer policy may benefit from consideration of these factors in determining which serious adolescent offenders are most appropriate for transfer.

Differential effects of adult court transfer on juvenile offender recidivism.

Prior research indicates that adolescent offenders transferred to adult court are more likely to recidivate than those retained in the juvenile system. The studies supporting this conclusion, however, are limited in addressing the issue of heterogeneity among transferred adolescents. This study estimates the effect of transfer on later crime using a sample of 654 serious juvenile offenders, 29% of whom were transferred. We use propensity score matching to reduce potential selection bias, and we partition the sample on legal characteristics to examine subgroup effects. We find an overall null effect of transfer on re-arrest, but evidence of differential effects of transfer for adolescents with different offending histories. These results suggest that evaluating the effects of transfer for all transferred adolescents together may lead to misguided policy conclusions.

ESTIMATING A DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS.

The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose-response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined.