At-Home Versus In-Clinic INR Monitoring: A Cost-Utility Analysis from The Home INR Study (THINRS).

BACKGROUND: Effective management of patients using warfarin is resource-intensive, requiring frequent in-clinic testing of the international normalized ratio (INR). Patient self-testing (PST) using portable at-home INR monitoring devices has emerged as a convenient alternative. As revealed by The Home INR Study (THINRS), event rates for PST were not significantly different from those for in-clinic high-quality anticoagulation management (HQACM), and a cumulative gain in quality of life was observed for patients undergoing PST. OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-utility analysis of weekly PST versus monthly HQACM and to examine the sensitivity of these results to testing frequency. PATIENTS/INTERVENTIONS: In this study, 2922 patients taking warfarin for atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valve, and who demonstrated PST competence, were randomized to either weekly PST (n = 1465) or monthly in-clinic testing (n = 1457). In a sub-study, 234 additional patients were randomized to PST once every 4 weeks (n = 116) or PST twice weekly (n = 118). The endpoints were quality of life (measured by the Health Utilities Index), health care utilization, and costs over 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: PST and HQACM participants were similar with regard to gender, age, and CHADS2 score. The total cost per patient over 2 years of follow-up was $32,484 for HQACM and $33,460 for weekly PST, representing a difference of $976. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained with PST once weekly was $5566 (95 % CI, -$11,490 to $25,142). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was sensitive to testing frequency: weekly PST dominated PST twice weekly and once every 4 weeks. Compared to HQACM, weekly PST was associated with statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in quality of life. The ICER for weekly PST versus HQACM was well within accepted standards for cost-effectiveness, and was preferred over more or less frequent PST. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses of key assumptions. CONCLUSION: Weekly PST is a cost-effective alternative to monthly HQACM and a preferred testing frequency compared to twice weekly or monthly PST.

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. METHODS: A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. RESULTS: Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

The impact of frequency of patient self-testing of prothrombin time on time in target range within VA Cooperative Study #481: The Home INR Study (THINRS), a randomized, controlled trial.

Anticoagulation (AC) is effective in reducing thromboembolic events for individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) or mechanical heart valve (MHV), but maintaining patients in target range for international normalized ratio (INR) can be difficult. Evidence suggests increasing INR testing frequency can improve time in target range (TTR), but this can be impractical with in-clinic testing. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that more frequent patient-self testing (PST) via home monitoring increases TTR. This planned substudy was conducted as part of The Home INR Study, a randomized controlled trial of in-clinic INR testing every 4 weeks versus PST at three different intervals. The setting for this study was 6 VA centers across the United States. 1,029 candidates with AF or MHV were trained and tested for competency using ProTime INR meters; 787 patients were deemed competent and, after second consent, randomized across four arms: high quality AC management (HQACM) in a dedicated clinic, with venous INR testing once every 4 weeks; and telephone monitored PST once every 4 weeks; weekly; and twice weekly. The primary endpoint was TTR at 1-year follow-up. The secondary endpoints were: major bleed, stroke and death, and quality of life. Results showed that TTR increased as testing frequency increased (59.9 ± 16.7 %, 63.3 ± 14.3 %, and 66.8 ± 13.2 % [mean ± SD] for the groups that underwent PST every 4 weeks, weekly and twice weekly, respectively). The proportion of poorly managed patients (i.e., TTR <50 %) was significantly lower for groups that underwent PST versus HQACM, and the proportion decreased as testing frequency increased. Patients and their care providers were unblinded given the nature of PST and HQACM. In conclusion, more frequent PST improved TTR and reduced the proportion of poorly managed patients.

Optimal management of Riata leads with no known electrical abnormalities or externalization: a decision analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Riata and Riata ST implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) leads (St. Jude Medical, Sylmar, CA, USA) can develop conductor cable externalization and/or electrical failure. Optimal management of these leads remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model compared 4 lead management strategies: (1) routine device interrogation for electrical failure, (2) systematic yearly fluoroscopic screening and routine device interrogation, (3) implantation of new ICD lead with capping of the in situ lead, and (4) implantation of new ICD lead with extraction of the in situ lead. The base case was a 64-year-old primary prevention ICD patient. Modeling demonstrated average life expectancies as follows: capping with new lead implanted at 134.5 months, extraction with new lead implanted at 134.0 months, fluoroscopy with routine interrogation at 133.9 months, and routine interrogation at 133.5 months. One-way sensitivity analyses identified capping as the preferred strategy with only one parameter having a threshold value: when risk of nonarrhythmic death associated with lead abandonment is greater than 0.05% per year, lead extraction is preferred over capping. A second-order Monte Carlo simulation (n = 10,000), as a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, found that lead revision was favored with 100% certainty (extraction 76% and capping 24%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall there were minimal differences in survival with monitoring versus active lead management approaches. There is no evidence to support fluoroscopic screening for externalization of Riata or Riata ST leads.

Projecting the number of older singaporeans with activity of daily living limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.

INTRODUCTION: In the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The proportion of community-dwelling older adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030. RESULTS: By 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older). Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159 (53%) are estimated to have 3 or more. CONCLUSION: The number of elderly Singaporeans with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in 2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.

Implications of long-term care capacity response policies for an aging population: a simulation analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The demand for long-term care (LTC) services is likely to increase as a population ages. Keeping pace with rising demand for LTC poses a key challenge for health systems and policymakers, who may be slow to scale up capacity. Given that Singapore is likely to face increasing demand for both acute and LTC services, this paper examines the dynamic impact of different LTC capacity response policies, which differ in the amount of time over which LTC capacity is increased, on acute care utilization and the demand for LTC and acute care professionals. METHODS: The modeling methodology of System Dynamics (SD) was applied to create a simplified, aggregate, computer simulation model for policy exploration. This model stimulates the interaction between persons with LTC needs (i.e., elderly individuals aged 65 years and older who have functional limitations that require human assistance) and the capacity of the healthcare system (i.e., acute and LTC services, including community-based and institutional care) to provide care. Because the model is intended for policy exploration, stylized numbers were used as model inputs. To discern policy effects, the model was initialized in a steady state. The steady state was disturbed by doubling the number of people needing LTC over the 30-year simulation time. Under this demand change scenario, the effects of various LTC capacity response policies were studied and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Compared to proactive and quick adjustment LTC capacity response policies, slower adjustment LTC capacity response policies (i.e., those for which the time to change LTC capacity is longer) tend to shift care demands to the acute care sector and increase total care needs. CONCLUSIONS: Greater attention to demand in the acute care sector relative to demand for LTC may result in over-building acute care facilities and filling them with individuals whose needs are better suited for LTC. Policymakers must be equally proactive in expanding LTC capacity, lest unsustainable acute care utilization and significant deficits in the number of healthcare professionals arise. Delaying LTC expansion could, for example, lead to increased healthcare expenditure and longer wait lists for LTC and acute care patients.

Short-term caloric restriction, resveratrol, or combined treatment regimens initiated in late-life alter mitochondrial protein expression profiles in a fiber-type specific manner in aged animals.

Aging is associated with a loss in muscle known as sarcopenia that is partially attributed to apoptosis. In aging rodents, caloric restriction (CR) increases health and longevity by improving mitochondrial function and the polyphenol resveratrol (RSV) has been reported to have similar benefits. In the present study, we investigated the potential efficacy of using short-term (6 weeks) CR (20%), RSV (50 mg/kg/day), or combined CR+ RSV (20% CR and 50 mg/kg/day RSV), initiated at late-life (27 months) to protect muscle against sarcopenia by altering mitochondrial function, biogenesis, content, and apoptotic signaling in both glycolytic white and oxidative red gastrocnemius muscle (WG and RG, respectively) of male Fischer 344 × Brown Norway rats. CR but not RSV attenuated the age-associated loss of muscle mass in both mixed gastrocnemius and soleus muscle, while combined treatment (CR + RSV) paradigms showed a protective effect in the soleus and plantaris muscle (P < 0.05). Sirt1 protein content was increased by 2.6-fold (P < 0.05) in WG but not RG muscle with RSV treatment, while CR or CR + RSV had no effect. PGC-1α levels were higher (2-fold) in the WG from CR-treated animals (P < 0.05) when compared to ad-libitum (AL) animals but no differences were observed in the RG with any treatment. Levels of the anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 were significantly higher (1.6-fold) in the WG muscle of RSV and CR + RSV groups compared to AL (P < 0.05) but tended to occur coincident with elevations in the pro-apoptotic protein Bax so that the apoptotic susceptibility as indicated by the Bax to Bcl-2 ratio was unchanged. There were no alterations in DNA fragmentation with any treatment in muscle from older animals. Additionally, mitochondrial respiration measured in permeabilized muscle fibers was unchanged in any treatment group and this paralleled the lack of change in cytochrome c oxidase (COX) activity. These data suggest that short-term moderate CR, RSV, or CR + RSV tended to modestly alter key mitochondrial regulatory and apoptotic signaling pathways in glycolytic muscle and this might contribute to the moderate protective effects against aging-induced muscle loss observed in this study.

Simulating the impact of long-term care policy on family eldercare hours.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the effect of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore. DATA SOURCES: The Social Isolation Health and Lifestyles Survey, the Survey on Informal Caregiving, and the Singapore Government's Ministry of Health and Department of Statistics. STUDY DESIGN: An LTC Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with LTC experts. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (ADLs), the proportion of those with greater ADL limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours. CONCLUSION: System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.

Expert estimates of caregiver hours for older Singaporeans with dementia.

AIM: To obtain experts' estimates of the number of non-medical care hours required by older Singaporeans at different stages of ageing-related dementia, with low or high behavioural features. METHODS: Experts on dementia in Singapore attended one of two meetings where they provided estimates of the number of care hours required for individuals at mild, moderate and severe levels of dementia with either low or high behavioural features. The experts were shown the collated responses, given an opportunity to discuss as a group, and then polled again. RESULTS: The estimated mean care hours varied by dementia severity and the level of behavioural features. There was no interaction between dementia severity and behavioural features. CONCLUSION: Estimated care hours needed by individuals with dementia is independently influenced by severity of dementia and behavioural features. These estimates may be useful for policy-makers in projecting the impact of caregiving.