ABSTRACT
The H1N1 "Spanish influenza" pandemic of 1918-1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings.
ABSTRACT
Understanding the context from which evidence emerges is of paramount importance in reaching robust conclusions in scientific inquiries. This is as true of the present as it is of the past. In a trans-disciplinary study such as More et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000064) and many others appearing in this and similar journals, a proper analysis of context demands the use of historical evidence. This includes demographic, epidemiological, and socio-economic data-common in many studies of the impact of anthropogenic pollution on human health-and, as in this specific case, also geoarchaeological evidence. These records anchor climate and pollution data in the geographic and human circumstances of history, without which we lose a fundamental understanding of the data itself. This article addresses Hinkley (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GH000105) by highlighting the importance of context, focusing on the historical and archaeological evidence, and then discussing atmospheric deposition and circulation in the specific region of our study. Since many of the assertions in Bindler (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GH000135) are congruent with our findings and directly contradict Hinkley (2018), this reply refers to Bindler (2018), whenever appropriate, and indicates where our evidence diverges.
ABSTRACT
Contrary to widespread assumptions, next-generation high (annual to multiannual) and ultra-high (subannual) resolution analyses of an Alpine glacier reveal that true historical minimum natural levels of lead in the atmosphere occurred only once in the last ~2000 years. During the Black Death pandemic, demographic and economic collapse interrupted metal production and atmospheric lead dropped to undetectable levels. This finding challenges current government and industry understanding of preindustrial lead pollution and its potential implications for human health of children and adults worldwide. Available technology and geographic location have limited previous ice core investigations. We provide new high- (discrete, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, ICP-MS) and ultra-high resolution (laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, LA-ICP-MS) records of atmospheric lead deposition extracted from the high Alpine glacier Colle Gnifetti, in the Swiss-Italian Alps. We show that contrary to the conventional wisdom, low levels at or approaching natural background occurred only in a single 4 year period in ~2000 years documented in the new ice core, during the Black Death (~1349-1353 C.E.), the most devastating pandemic in Eurasian history. Ultra-high chronological resolution allows for the first time detailed and decisive comparison of the new glaciochemical data with historical records. Historical evidence shows that mining activity ceased upwind of the core site from ~1349 to 1353, while concurrently on the glacier lead (Pb) concentrations-dated by layer counting confirmed by radiocarbon dating-dropped to levels below detection, an order of magnitude beneath figures deemed low in earlier studies. Previous assumptions about preindustrial "natural" background lead levels in the atmosphere-and potential impacts on humans-have been misleading, with significant implications for current environmental, industrial, and public health policy, as well as for the history of human lead exposure. Trans-disciplinary application of this new technology opens the door to new approaches to the study of the anthropogenic impact on past and present human health.
