Risk factor analysis and prediction model for papillary thyroid carcinoma with lymph node metastasis.

Objective: We aimed to identify the clinical factors associated with lymph node metastasis (LNM) based on ultrasound characteristics and clinical data, and develop a nomogram for personalized clinical decision-making. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 252 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The patient's information was subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors. A nomogram to predict LNM was established combining the risk factors. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, cross-validation, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve. Results: There are significant differences between LNM and non-LNM groups in terms of age, sex, tumor size, hypoechoic halo around the nodule, thyroid capsule invasion, lymph node microcalcification, lymph node hyperechoic area, peak intensity of contrast (PI), and area under the curve (AUC) of the time intensity curve of contrast (P<0.05). Age, sex, thyroid capsule invasion, lymph node microcalcification were independent predictors of LNM and were used to establish the predictive nomogram. The ROC was 0.800, with excellent discrimination and calibration. The predictive accuracy of 0.757 and the Kappa value was 0.508. The calibration curve, DCA and calibration curve demonstrated that the prediction model had excellent net benefits and clinical practicability. Conclusion: Age, sex, thyroid capsule invasion, and lymph node microcalcification were identified as significant risk factors for predicting LNM in patients with PTC. The visualized nomogram model may assist clinicians in predicting the likelihood of LNM in patients with PTC prior to surgery.

Evaluation of diagnostic efficacy of multimode ultrasound in BI-RADS 4 breast neoplasms and establishment of a predictive model.

Objectives: To explore the diagnostic efficacy of ultrasound (US), two-dimensional and three-dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE and 3D-SWE), and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in breast neoplasms in category 4 based on the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) from the American College of Radiology (ACR) and to develop a risk-prediction nomogram based on the optimal combination to provide a reference for the clinical management of BI-RADS 4 breast neoplasms. Methods: From September 2021 to April 2022, a total of 104 breast neoplasms categorized as BI-RADS 4 by US were included in this prospective study. There were 78 breast neoplasms randomly assigned to the training cohort; the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), 95% confidence interval (95% CI), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 2D-SWE, 3D-SWE, CEUS, and their combination were analyzed and compared. The optimal combination was selected to develop a risk-prediction nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by a validation cohort of 26 neoplasms. Results: Of the 78 neoplasms in the training cohort, 16 were malignant and 62 were benign. Among the 26 neoplasms in the validation cohort, 6 were malignant and 20 were benign. The AUC values of 2D-SWE, 3D-SWE, and CEUS were not significantly different. After a comparison of the different combinations, 2D-SWE+CEUS showed the optimal performance. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to filter the variables in this combination, and the variables included Emax, Eratio, enhancement mode, perfusion defect, and area ratio. Then, a risk-prediction nomogram with BI-RADS was built. The performance of the nomogram was better than that of the radiologists in the training cohort (AUC: 0.974 vs. 0.863). In the validation cohort, there was no significant difference in diagnostic accuracy between the nomogram and the experienced radiologists (AUC: 0.946 vs. 0.842). Conclusions: US, 2D-SWE, 3D-SWE, CEUS, and their combination could improve the diagnostic efficiency of BI-RADS 4 breast neoplasms. The diagnostic efficacy of US+3D-SWE was not better than US+2D-SWE. US+2D-SWE+CEUS showed the optimal diagnostic performance. The nomogram based on US+2D-SWE+CEUS performs well.