A Scoping Review on the Epidemiology of Orthobunyaviruses of Canadian Public and Animal Health Relevance in the Context of Vector Species.

Background: Mosquito-borne orthobunyaviruses are a growing priority for public and animal health in Canada. It is anticipated that disease incidence will increase due to a warming climate, given that habitats are expanding for reservoir hosts and vectors, particularly in Canada. Little is known about the ecology of primary vectors that perpetuate these orthobunyaviruses, including the viral transmission cycle and the impact of climatic and landscape factors. Methods: A scoping review was conducted to describe the current state of knowledge on the epidemiology of orthobunyaviruses relevant to Canada. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines was used to characterize studies focused on vector species. A literature search was conducted in six databases and gray literature. Eligible studies characterized orthobunyavirus epidemiology related to vector species, including viral competency, geospatial distributions, seasonal trends, and/or risk factors. Results: A total of 1734 unique citations were identified. Screening of these citations revealed 172 relevant studies, from which 87 studies presented primary data related to vectors. The orthobunyaviruses included Cache Valley virus (CVV), Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV), Snowshoe Hare virus (SHV), and La Crosse virus (LACV). Surveillance was the predominant study focus, with most citations representing the United States, specifically, LACV surveillance in Tennessee, followed by CVV and JCV in Connecticut. Orthobunyaviruses were detected in many mosquito species across multiple genera, with high vector specificity only being reported for LACV, which included Aedes triseriatus, Aedes albopictus, and Aedes japonicus. Peridomestic areas were positively associated with infected mosquitoes compared with dense forests. Orthobunyavirus infections, coinfections, and gut microbiota affected mosquito feeding and breeding behavior. Conclusion: Knowledge gaps included Canadian surveillance data, disease modeling, and risk projections. Further research in these areas, especially accounting for climate change, is needed to guide health policy for prevention of orthobunyaviral disease.

Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach.

In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States. This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model. The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada, that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission. A Cellular Automata (CA) approach for multiple hosts (birds and humans) is used for a test region in eastern Ontario, Canada. The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity, host migration, and vector feeding preferences. We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 km2 rectangular cells. We used 2010-2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010-2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation. We considered heterogeneous bird densities (high and low suitability areas) and homogeneous mosquito and human densities. In high suitability areas for birds, we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds. We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software. The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics, supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito (c(B,M)) and mosquito natural mortality rate (dM), had a very limited effect on the total number of cases (newly infected birds and humans), prevalence peak, or date of occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.

A Scoping Review on the Epidemiology of Orthobunyaviruses in Canada, in the Context of Human, Wildlife, and Domestic Animal Host Species.

Background: Mosquito-borne orthobunyaviruses in Canada are a growing public health concern. Orthobunyaviral diseases are commonly underdiagnosed and in Canada, likely underreported as surveillance is passive. No vaccines or specific treatments exist for these disease agents. Further, climate change is facilitating habitat expansion for relevant reservoirs and vectors, and it is likely that the majority of the Canadian population is susceptible to these viruses. Methods: A scoping review was conducted to describe the current state of knowledge on orthobunyavirus epidemiology in Canada. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guideline was used. Literature searches were conducted in six databases and in gray literature. The epidemiology of orthobunyaviruses was characterized for studies focusing on host species, including spatiotemporal patterns, risk factors, and climate change impact. Results: A total of 172 relevant studies were identified from 1734 citations from which 95 addressed host species, including humans, wildlife, and domestic animals including livestock. The orthobunyaviruses-Cache Valley virus (CVV), Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV), Snowshoe Hare virus (SHV), and La Crosse virus (LACV)-were identified, and prevalence was widespread across vertebrate species. CVV, JCV, and SHV were detected across Canada and the United States. LACV was reported only in the United States, predominantly the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian regions. Disease varied by orthobunyavirus and was associated with age, environment, preexisting compromised immune systems, or livestock breeding schedule. Conclusion: Knowledge gaps included seroprevalence data in Canada, risk factor analyses, particularly for livestock, and disease projections in the context of climate change. Additional surveillance and mitigation strategies, especially accounting for climate change, are needed to guide future public health efforts to prevent orthobunyavirus exposure and disease.

A cost-effective RNA extraction and RT-qPCR approach to detect California serogroup viruses from pooled mosquito samples.

Mosquito-borne diseases pose ongoing global health concerns, demanding more cost-efficient methods to detect pathogens to support enhanced surveillance efforts. This study introduces an adapted TRIzol-based high-throughput RNA extraction protocol, tailored for the detection of California serogroup viruses in pooled mosquito samples in a rapid and cost-effective manner. This approach provided consistent RNA yields and sensitive viral detection relative to two commercial extraction kits (QIAGEN RNeasy Mini Kit and MACHEREY-NAGEL NucleoSpin RNA Plus Kit). The incorporation of a user-friendly and non-spiking-based RT-qPCR internal control designed for the 18S rRNA gene in mosquitoes minimizes potential false positives/negatives, improving the fidelity of viral detection outcomes. Effective RNA yields, purity, and successful target amplification across 25 mosquito species and varied pool sizes (1-50 mosquitoes per tube) affirm the reliability of our approach. The extraction method is cost-effective, with an incurred cost of $0.58 CAD per sample, in contrast to the $5.25 CAD cost per sample of the two kits, rendering it promising for mosquito-borne disease surveillance initiatives.

Relationships between water quality and mosquito presence and abundance: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are emerging in response to climate and land use changes. As mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) habitat selection is often contingent on water availability for egg and larval development, studies have recognized water quality also influences larval habitats. However, underlying species-, genera-, and mosquito level preferences for water quality conditions are varied. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify, characterize, appraise, and synthesize available global data on the relationships between water quality and mosquito presence and abundance (MPA); with the goal to further our understanding of the geographic expansion of MBD risks. A systematic review was conducted to identify studies investigating the relationships between water quality properties and MPA. Where appropriate, random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to provide pooled estimates for the association between the most reported water quality properties and MPA. The most reported water quality parameters were pH (87%), nitrogen concentrations (56%), turbidity (56%), electrical conductivity (54%), dissolved oxygen (43%), phosphorus concentrations (30%), and alkalinity (10%). Overall, pH (P = 0.05), turbidity (P < 0.0001), electrical conductivity (P = 0.005), dissolved oxygen (P < 0.0001), nitrogen (P < 0.0001), and phosphorus (P < 0.0001) showed significantly positive pooled correlations with MPA, while alkalinity showed a nonsignificant null pooled correlation (P = 0.85). We observed high heterogeneity in most meta-analyses, and climate zonation was shown to influence the pooled estimates. Linkages between MPA and water quality properties will enhance our capacity to predict MBD risks under changing environmental and land use changes.

Ecological Niche and Positive Clusters of Two West Nile Virus Vectors in Ontario, Canada.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen associated with uncommon but severe neurological complications in humans, especially among the elderly and immune-compromised. In Northeastern North America, the Culex pipiens/restuans complex and Aedes vexans are the two principal vector mosquito species/species groups of WNV. Using a 10-year surveillance dataset of WNV vector captures at 118 sites across an area of 40,000 km2 in Eastern Ontario, Canada, the ecological niches of Cx. pipiens/restuans and Aedes vexans were modeled by random forest analysis. Spatiotemporal clusters of WNV-positive mosquito pools were identified using Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. The study region encompasses land cover types and climate representative of highly populated Southeastern Canada. We found highest vector habitat suitability in the eastern half of the study area, where temperatures are generally warmer (variable importance > 0.40) and residential and agricultural cropland cover is more prominent (variable importance > 0.25). We found spatiotemporal clusters of high WNV infection rates around the city of Ottawa in both mosquito vector species. These results support the previous literature in the same region and elsewhere suggesting areas surrounding highly populated areas are also high-risk areas for vector-borne zoonoses such as the WNV.

Cache a Killer: Cache Valley virus seropositivity and associated farm management risk factors in sheep in Ontario, Canada.

Cache Valley virus (CVV) disease is a mosquito-borne zoonosis endemic to North America. CVV disease is reported most often in sheep, causing lethal congenital deformities. There are limited data on CVV in Ontario, which is the largest sheep producing province in Canada. This study aimed to determine CVV seroprevalence in Ontario sheep flocks and investigate farm management factors associated with CVV exposure. A cross-sectional study was performed including 364 mature ewes across 18 farms selected from the five largest sheep districts in the province. A questionnaire was administered at each farm to determine farm management practices pertinent to the flock and ewes specifically sampled. Mixed multivariable logistic regression with a random effect for farm was conducted to assess associations between CVV seropositivity (outcome variable) and farm management risk factors (predictor variables). CVV seroprevalence was 33.2% in individual ewes (95% CI: 28.4%-38.1%) as determined by a virus neutralization assay with a titre > 4. Sixteen of the eighteen flocks (88.9%) had at least one CVV seropositive ewe. Increased age, smaller flock size, and sheep housing near wetlands, lakes, or ponds were found to be significantly associated with higher odds of CVV seropositivity. These findings are valuable in guiding breeding practices and housing during mosquito season to minimize infection and, ultimately, CVV disease in the flock.

Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment.

Mosquitoes are known vectors for viral diseases in Canada, and their distribution is driven by climate and land use. Despite that, future land-use changes have not yet been used as a driver in mosquito distribution models in North America. In this paper, we developed land-use change projections designed to address mosquito-borne disease (MBD) prediction in a 38 761 km2 area of Eastern Ontario. The landscape in the study area is marked by urbanization and intensive agriculture and hosts a diverse mosquito community. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to project land-use for three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2070) based on historical trends (from 2014 to 2020) for water, forest, agriculture, and urban land uses. Five scenarios were generated to reflect urbanization, agricultural expansion, and natural areas. An ensemble of thirty simulations per scenario was run to account for land-use conversion uncertainty. The simulation closest to the average map generated was selected to represent the scenario. A concordance matrix generated using map pair analysis showed a good agreement between the simulated 2020 maps and 2020 observed map. By 2050, the most significant changes are predicted to occur mainly in the southeastern region's rural and forested areas. By 2070, high deforestation is expected in the central west. These results will be integrated into risk models predicting mosquito distribution to study the possibility of humans' increased exposure risk to MBDs.

Mapping the abundance of endemic mosquito-borne diseases vectors in southern Quebec.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the dispersion of mosquitoes and the spread of viruses of which some mosquitoes are the main vectors. In Quebec, the surveillance and management of endemic mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus or Eastern equine encephalitis, could be improved by mapping the areas of risk supporting vector populations. However, there is currently no active tool tailored to Quebec that can predict mosquito population abundances, and we propose, with this work, to help fill this gap. METHODS: Four species of mosquitos were studied in this project for the period from 2003 to 2016 for the southern part of the province of Quebec: Aedes vexans (VEX), Coquillettidia perturbans (CQP), Culex pipiens-restuans group (CPR) and Ochlerotatus stimulans group (SMG) species. We used a negative binomial regression approach, including a spatial component, to model the abundances of each species or species group as a function of meteorological and land-cover variables. We tested several sets of variables combination, regional and local scale variables for landcover and different lag period for the day of capture for weather variables, to finally select one best model for each species. RESULTS: Models selected showed the importance of the spatial component, independently of the environmental variables, at the larger spatial scale. In these models, the most important land-cover predictors that favored CQP and VEX were 'forest', and 'agriculture' (for VEX only). Land-cover 'urban' had negative impact on SMG and CQP. The weather conditions on the trapping day and previous weather conditions summarized over 30 or 90 days were preferred over a shorter period of seven days, suggesting current and long-term previous weather conditions effects on mosquito abundance. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of the spatial component highlights the difficulties in modelling the abundance of mosquito species and the model selection shows the importance of selecting the right environmental predictors, especially when choosing the temporal and spatial scale of these variables. Climate and landscape variables were important for each species or species group, suggesting it is possible to consider their use in predicting long-term spatial variationsin the abundance of mosquitoes potentially harmful to public health in southern Quebec.

Effects of land use and weather on the presence and abundance of mosquito-borne disease vectors in a urban and agricultural landscape in Eastern Ontario, Canada.

Weather and land use can significantly impact mosquito abundance and presence, and by consequence, mosquito-borne disease (MBD) dynamics. Knowledge of vector ecology and mosquito species response to these drivers will help us better predict risk from MBD. In this study, we evaluated and compared the independent and combined effects of weather and land use on mosquito species occurrence and abundance in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Data on occurrence and abundance (245,591 individuals) of 30 mosquito species were obtained from mosquito capture at 85 field sites in 2017 and 2018. Environmental variables were extracted from weather and land use datasets in a 1-km buffer around trapping sites. The relative importance of weather and land use on mosquito abundance (for common species) or occurrence (for all species) was evaluated using multivariate hierarchical statistical models. Models incorporating both weather and land use performed better than models that include weather only for approximately half of species (59% for occurrence model and 50% for abundance model). Mosquito occurrence was mainly associated with temperature whereas abundance was associated with precipitation and temperature combined. Land use was more often associated with abundance than occurrence. For most species, occurrence and abundance were positively associated with forest cover but for some there was a negative association. Occurrence and abundance of some species (47% for occurrence model and 88% for abundance model) were positively associated with wetlands, but negatively associated with urban (Culiseta melanura and Anopheles walkeri) and agriculture (An. quadrimaculatus, Cs. minnesotae and An. walkeri) environments. This study provides predictive relationships between weather, land use and mosquito occurrence and abundance for a wide range of species including those that are currently uncommon, yet known as arboviruses vectors. Elucidation of these relationships has the potential to contribute to better prediction of MBD risk, and thus more efficiently targeted prevention and control measures.

A meteorological-based forecasting model for predicting minimal infection rates in Culex pipiens-restuans complex using Québec's West Nile virus integrated surveillance system.

Background: The ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux (MSSS) du Québec (Québec's health authority) has expressed an interest in the development of an early warning tool to identify seasonal human outbreaks of West Nile virus infection in order to modulate public health interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if a user-friendly meteorological-based forecasting tool could be used to predict minimal infection rates for the Culex pipiens-restuans complex-a proxy of human risk-ahead of mosquito season. Methods: Annual minimal infection rate (number of positive pools/number of mosquitoes) was calculated for 856 mosquito traps set from 2003 to 2006 and 2013 to 2018 throughout the south of Québec's. Coefficient of determination (R2) were estimated using the validation dataset (one third of the database by random selection) with generalized estimation equations, which were prior fitted backwards with polynomial terms using the training dataset (two thirds of the database), in order to minimize the Bayesian information criteria. Mean temperatures and precipitation were grouped at five temporal scales (by month, by season and by 4, 6 and 10-months groupings). Results: Mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation from the previous months of March (R2=0.37), May (R2=0.36), December (R2=0.35) and the autumn season (R2=0.38) accounted for ~40% of Cx. pipiens-restuans annual minimal infection rates variations. Including the "year of sampling" variable in all regression models increased the predictive abilities (R2 between 0.42 and 0.57). Conclusion: All regression models explored have too weak predictive abilities to be useful as a public health tool. Other factors implicated in the epidemiology of the West Nile virus need to be incorporated in a meteorological-based early warning model for it to be useful to the provincial health authorities.

Mosquitoes Know No Borders: Surveillance of Potential Introduction of Aedes Species in Southern Québec, Canada.

Current climatic conditions limit the distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse, Diptera: Culicidae) in the north, but predictive climate models suggest this species could establish itself in southern Canada by 2040. A vector of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, Zika and West Nile viruses, the Ae. Albopictus has been detected in Windsor, Ontario since 2016. Given the potential public health implications, and knowing that Aedes spp. can easily be introduced by ground transportation, this study aimed to determine if specimens could be detected, using an adequate methodology, in southern Québec. Mosquitoes were sampled in 2016 and 2017 along the main roads connecting Canada and the U.S., using Biogent traps (Sentinel-2, Gravide Aedes traps) and ovitraps. Overall, 24 mosquito spp. were captured, excluding Ae. Albopictus, but detecting one Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Skuse) specimen (laid eggs). The most frequent species among captured adults were Ochlerotatus triseriatus, Culex pipiens complex, and Ochlerotatus japonicus (31.0%, 26.0%, and 17.3%, respectively). The present study adds to the increasing number of studies reporting on the range expansions of these mosquito species, and suggests that ongoing monitoring, using multiple capture techniques targeting a wide range of species, may provide useful information to public health with respect to the growing risk of emerging mosquito-borne diseases in southern Canada.

Modelling scenarios of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), likely a bat-origin coronavirus, spilled over from wildlife to humans in China in late 2019, manifesting as a respiratory disease. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread initially within China and then globally, resulting in a pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This article describes predictive modelling of COVID-19 in general, and efforts within the Public Health Agency of Canada to model the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian population to support public health decisions. METHODS: The broad objectives of two modelling approaches, 1) an agent-based model and 2) a deterministic compartmental model, are described and a synopsis of studies is illustrated using a model developed in Analytica 5.3 software. RESULTS: Without intervention, more than 70% of the Canadian population may become infected. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, applied with an intensity insufficient to cause the epidemic to die out, reduce the attack rate to 50% or less, and the epidemic is longer with a lower peak. If NPIs are lifted early, the epidemic may rebound, resulting in high percentages (more than 70%) of the population affected. If NPIs are applied with intensity high enough to cause the epidemic to die out, the attack rate can be reduced to between 1% and 25% of the population. CONCLUSION: Applying NPIs with intensity high enough to cause the epidemic to die out would seem to be the preferred choice. Lifting disruptive NPIs such as shut-downs must be accompanied by enhancements to other NPIs to prevent new introductions and to identify and control any new transmission chains.

Bird Species Involved in West Nile Virus Epidemiological Cycle in Southern Québec.

Despite many studies on West Nile Virus (WNV) in the US, including the reservoir role of bird species and the summer shifts of the Culex mosquito, feeding from birds to mammals, there have been few equivalent studies in the neighboring regions of Canada where WNV is endemic. Here, a priority list of bird species likely involved in WNV transmission in the greater Montréal area is constructed by combining three sources of data: (i) from WNV surveillance in wild birds (2002-2015); (ii) blood meal analysis of Culex pipiens-restuans (CPR), the primary enzootic vectors of WNV in the region, collected from surveillance in 2008 and 2014; (iii) literature review on the sero-prevalence/host competence of resident birds. Each of these data sources yielded 18, 23 and 53 species, and overall, 67 different bird species were identified as potential WNV amplifiers/reservoirs. Of those identified from CPR blood meals, Common starlings, American robins, Song sparrows and House sparrows ranked the highest and blood meal analysis demonstrated a seasonal shift in feed preference from birds to mammals by CPR. Our study indicates that there are broad similarities in the ecology of WNV between our region and the northeastern US, although the relative importance of bird species varies somewhat between regions.

Assessing the impact of varying levels of case detection and contact tracing on COVID-19 transmission in Canada during lifting of restrictive closures using a dynamic compartmental model.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began with a detected cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Endemic transmission was recognized in Canada in early February 2020, making it urgent for public health stakeholders to have access to robust and reliable tools to support decision-making for epidemic management. The objectives of this paper are to present one of these tools-an aged-stratified dynamic compartmental model developed by the Public Health Agency of Canada in collaboration with Statistics Canada-and to model the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the attack rate of COVID-19 infection in Canada. METHODS: This model simulates the impact of different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including case detection/isolation, contact tracing/quarantine and changes in the level of physical distancing in Canada, as restrictive closures began to be lifted in May 2020. RESULTS: This model allows us to highlight the importance of a relatively high level of detection and isolation of cases, as well as tracing and quarantine of individuals in contact with those cases, in order to avoid a resurgence of the epidemic in Canada as restrictive closures are lifted. Some level of physical distancing by the public will also likely need to be maintained. CONCLUSION: This study underlines the importance of a cautious approach to lifting restrictive closures in this second phase of the epidemic. This approach includes efforts by public health to identify cases and trace contacts, and to encourage Canadians to get tested if they are at risk of having been infected and to maintain physical distancing in public areas.

Predicted Northward Expansion of the Geographic Range of the Tick Vector Amblyomma americanum in North America under Future Climate Conditions.

BACKGROUND: The geographic range of the tick Amblyomma americanum, a vector of diseases of public health significance such as ehrlichiosis, has expanded from the southeast of the United States northward during the 20th century. Recently, populations of this tick have been reported to be present close to the Canadian border in Michigan and New York states, but established populations are not known in Canada. Previous research suggests that changing temperature patterns with climate change may influence tick life cycles and permit northward range expansion of ticks in the northern hemisphere. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick's range and to investigate the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades. METHODS: A simulation model of the tick A. americanum was used, via simulations using climate data from meteorological stations in the United States and Canada, to estimate minimal temperature conditions for survival of A. americanum populations at the northern edge of the tick's range. RESULTS: The predicted geographic scope of temperature suitability [≥3,285 annual cumulative degree days (DD) >0°C] included most of the central and eastern U.S. states east of longitude 110°W, which is consistent with current surveillance data for the presence of the tick in this region, as well as parts of southern Quebec and Ontario in Canada. Regional climate model output raises the possibility of northward range expansion into all provinces of Canada from Alberta to Newfoundland and Labrador during the coming decades, with the greatest northward range expansion (up to 1,000km by the year 2100) occurring under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Predicted northward range expansion was reduced by approximately half under the reduced GHG emissions of RCP4.5. DISCUSSION: Our results raise the possibility of range expansion of A. americanum into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades, and conclude that surveillance for this tick, and the diseases it transmits, would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5668.

Phylogenetic analysis of West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, 2004-2016: Co-circulation of distinct variants harbouring conserved amino acid motifs in North America.

West Nile virus (WNV) was introduced for the first time in the western hemisphere in 1999 in New York City. In 2002, a phenotype-modifying mutation (Env-V159A) defined the first North American genotype WN02. So far, three genotypes has been described in North America but little is known about WNV evolution in Canada. We report the phylogenetic characterization of twenty-six WNV genomes isolated from mosquitoes in the province of Quebec. WNV strains found in Quebec are phylogenetically related to American strains collected in northern and southern regions. We also noted the presence of two robust monophyletic groups of isolates characterized by distinct conserved amino acid motifs. These emerging genotypes were detected for several years in different ecosystems. These results highlight the need for the maintenance of a nationwide surveillance to follow the dispersion of emergent WNV genotypes.

Short-term Forecasting of Daily Abundance of West Nile Virus Vectors Culex pipiens-restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes vexans Based on Weather Conditions in Southern Québec (Canada).

Since 2002, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred every year in southern Canada, but WNV risk remains challenging to predict. Here, we explored the ability of weather-based forecasting models to predict the seasonal abundance of two WNV vector species (Culex pipiens-restuans and Aedes vexans) in Québec, Canada, and explored the importance of accounting for larvicide use and local habitat (forest park vs residential garden). A gamma-generalized linear model predicting mosquito abundance was developed based on an approach previously used in Ontario combining temperature and precipitation during the days preceding mosquito captures. This model was calibrated and validated for each species with independent entomological datasets from the Montréal region collected in 2013 and 2014. Culex pipiens-restuans abundance was associated with mean degree days (dd; >9°C) over the 22 d before mosquito capture and with mean precipitation over the 71 d before capture; Ae. vexans abundance with the mean dd (>12°C) over the 24 d before capture and mean precipitation over the 30 d before capture. These results are consistent with temperature effects on immature development rates and adult activity, and effects of precipitation on the abundance and suitability of breeding sites. Taking into account larvicide use and habitat significantly improved the predictions. This study provides evidence that weather conditions can yield robust short-term predictions of the regional daily mosquito abundance, particularly when accounting for local variation in habitat or mosquito control efforts, and may provide real-time indicators of WNV or other mosquito-borne disease risks during the summer.

Passive Tick Surveillance Provides an Accurate Early Signal of Emerging Lyme Disease Risk and Human Cases in Southern Canada.

Lyme disease is an emerging public health threat in Canada. In this context, rapid detection of new risk areas is essential for timely application of prevention and control measures. In Canada, information on Lyme disease risk is collected through three surveillance activities: active tick surveillance, passive tick surveillance, and reported human cases. However, each method has shortcomings that limit its ability to rapidly and reliably identify new risk areas. We investigated the relationships between risk signals provided by human cases, passive and active tick surveillance to assess the performance of tick surveillance for early detection of emerging risk areas. We used regression models to investigate the relationships between the reported human cases, Ixodes scapularis (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) ticks collected on humans through passive surveillance and the density of nymphs collected by active surveillance from 2009 to 2014 in the province of Quebec. We then developed new risk indicators and validated their ability to discriminate risk levels used by provincial public health authorities. While there was a significant positive relationship between the risk signals provided all three surveillance methods, the strongest association was between passive tick surveillance and reported human cases. Passive tick submissions were a reasonable indicator of the abundance of ticks in the environment (sensitivity and specificity [Se and Sp] < 0.70), but were a much better indicator of municipalities with more than three human cases reported over 5 yr (Se = 0.88; Sp = 0.90). These results suggest that passive tick surveillance provides a timely and reliable signal of emerging risk areas for Lyme disease in Canada.

Multi-Scale Clustering of Lyme Disease Risk at the Expanding Leading Edge of the Range of Ixodes scapularis in Canada.

Since its detection in Canada in the early 1990s, Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of Lyme disease in eastern North America, has continued to expand northward. Estimates of the tick's broad-scale distribution are useful for tracking the extent of the Lyme disease risk zone; however, tick distribution may vary widely within this zone. Here, we investigated I. scapularis nymph distribution at three spatial scales across the Lyme disease emergence zone in southern Quebec, Canada. We collected ticks and compared the nymph densities among different woodlands and different plots and transects within the same woodland. Hot spot analysis highlighted significant nymph clustering at each spatial scale. In regression models, nymph abundance was associated with litter depth, humidity, and elevation, which contribute to a suitable habitat for ticks, but also with the distance from the trail and the type of trail, which could be linked to host distribution and human disturbance. Accounting for this heterogeneous nymph distribution at a fine spatial scale could help improve Lyme disease management strategies but also help people to understand the risk variation around them and to adopt appropriate behaviors, such as staying on the trail in infested parks to limit their exposure to the vector and associated pathogens.