Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians.

Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.

Uso del análisis comparativo del riesgo de extinción para priorizar la reevaluación de los anfibios en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen El análisis del riesgo de extinción de una especie con base en la Lista Roja (LR) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) es clave para guiar las políticas de conservación y reducir la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, este proceso demanda recursos y requiere de actualizaciones continuas, lo que se complica conforme se añaden especies nuevas a la LR. Los métodos automáticos, como los análisis comparativos usados para predecir la categoría de la especie en la LR, pueden ser una alternativa eficiente para mantener actualizados los análisis. Usamos a los anfibios como grupo de estudio para predecir cuáles especies tienen mayor probabilidad de cambiar de categoría en la LR y que, por lo tanto, se debería priorizar su reevaluación. Usamos las características biológicas de la especie, las variables ambientales e indicadores climáticos y del cambio de uso de suelo como predictores de la categoría en la LR. Elaboramos una predicción de ensamble de la categoría en la LR de la UICN para cada especie mediante la combinación de cuatro algoritmos diferentes: modelos de vínculo acumulativo, menor número de cuadros filogenéticos generalizados, bosques aleatorios y redes neurales. Con la comparación entre las categorías de la LR y la predicción de ensamble y con considerar la incertidumbre entre los algoritmos identificamos especies que deberían ser prioridad para futuras reevaluaciones con base en el desfase entre los valores predichos y los observados. Las variables de predicción más importantes entre los modelos fueron el tamaño de la distribución de la especie y su configuración espacial, las características biológicas, el cambio climático y el cambio de uso de suelo. Comparamos nuestra propuesta de índice de priorización y los cambios predichos en la LR con las reevaluaciones independientes de la LR de la UICN y descubrimos un buen desempeño tanto para la priorización como para la direccionalidad predicha de los cambios en las categorías de la LR. El modelo de ensamble de la categoría de la LR esa una herramienta prometedora para priorizar la reevaluación de las especies a la vez que considera la incertidumbre del modelo. Esta estrategia puede generalizarse para aplicarse a todos los taxones de la LR de la UICN y a los análisis regionales y nacionales. También podría mejorar la asignación de los recursos humanos y económicos limitados disponibles para mantener actualizada la LR de la UICN.

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.

Ongoing declines for the world's amphibians in the face of emerging threats.

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.

Melanesia holds the world's most diverse and intact insular amphibian fauna.

Identifying hotspots of biological diversity is a key step in conservation prioritisation. Melanesia-centred on the vast island of New Guinea-is increasingly recognised for its exceptionally species-rich and endemic biota. Here we show that Melanesia has the world's most diverse insular amphibian fauna, with over 7% of recognised global frog species in less than 0.7% of the world's land area, and over 97% of species endemic. We further estimate that nearly 200 additional candidate species have been discovered but remain unnamed, pointing to a total fauna in excess of 700 species. Nearly 60% of the Melanesian frog fauna is in a lineage of direct-developing microhylids characterised by smaller distributions than co-occurring frog families, suggesting lineage-specific high beta diversity is a key driver of Melanesian anuran megadiversity. A comprehensive conservation status assessment further highlights geographic concentrations of recently described range-restricted threatened taxa that warrant urgent conservation actions. Nonetheless, by world standards, the Melanesian frog fauna is relatively intact, with 6% of assessed species listed as threatened and no documented extinctions; and thus it provides an unparalleled opportunity to understand and conserve a megadiverse and relatively intact insular biota.

Update on Distribution and Conservation Status of Amphibians in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea: Conclusions Based on Field Surveys, Environmental Modelling, Molecular Analyses and Call Properties.

Determining the range, status, ecology and behaviour of species from areas where surveys and samplings are uncommon or difficult to conduct is a challenge, such as in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPR Korea). Here, we used genetic samples, field surveys, call recordings, photographic identification and a literature review to estimate the presence, range and status of amphibians in the DPR Korea. From our combined results and based on the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, we were able to estimate the national threat levels for most species. Our results demonstrated the presence of 18 native species and the suspected presence of Karsenia koreana and two Onychodactylus species. We reported the first record for Rana uenoi in the vicinity of Pyongyang using molecular tools and similarly confirmed the presence of Dryophytes japonicus at the same location. Based on distribution and modelling, we can expect the contact zone between species within the Rana and Onychodactylus genera to be located along the Changbai Massif, a mountain range that marks a shift in ecoregions and acts as a barrier to dispersion. The species richness was higher in the lowlands and at lower latitudes, with such areas populated by up to 11 species, while more northern regions were characterised by species richness of about half of that value. The combination of ecological models and known threats resulted in the recommendation of ten species as threatened at the national level following the IUCN Red List categories and criteria. This high number of threatened species was anticipated based on the high threat level to amphibians in bordering nations and globally. While the ecology of species in the DPR Korea is still understudied, we argue that species relying on agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies are not under imminent threat due to the enduring presence of extensive agricultural landscapes with low rates of chemical use and mechanisation. The maintenance of such landscapes is a clear benefit to amphibian species, in contrast to more industrialised agricultural landscapes in neighbouring nations. In comparison, the status of species dependent on forested habitats is unclear and threat levels are likely to be higher because of deforestation, as in neighbouring nations.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical.

The effects of different maceration techniques on nuclear DNA amplification using human bone.

Forensic anthropologists routinely macerate human bone for the purposes of identity and trauma analysis, but the heat and chemical treatments used can destroy genetic evidence. As a follow-up to a previous study on nuclear DNA recovery that used pig ribs, this study utilizes human skeletal remains treated with various bone maceration techniques for nuclear DNA amplification using the standard Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) markers. DNA was extracted from 18 samples of human lower leg bones subjected to nine chemical and heat maceration techniques. Genotyping was carried out using the AmpFlSTR COfiler and AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus ID kits. Results showed that heat treatments via microwave or Biz/Na(2)CO(3) in sub-boiling water efficiently macerate bone and produce amplifiable nuclear DNA for genetic analysis. Long-term use of chemicals such as hydrogen peroxide is discouraged as it results in poor bone quality and has deleterious effects on DNA amplification.