First experiences with machine learning predictions of accelerated declining eGFR slope of living kidney donors 3 years after donation.

BACKGROUND: Living kidney donors are screened pre-donation to estimate the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). We evaluate Machine Learning (ML) to predict the progression of kidney function deterioration over time using the estimated GFR (eGFR) slope as the target variable. METHODS: We included 238 living kidney donors who underwent donor nephrectomy. We divided the dataset based on the eGFR slope in the third follow-up year, resulting in 185 donors with an average eGFR slope and 53 donors with an accelerated declining eGFR-slope. We trained three Machine Learning-models (Random Forest [RF], Extreme Gradient Boosting [XG], Support Vector Machine [SVM]) and Logistic Regression (LR) for predictions. Predefined data subsets served for training to explore whether parameters of an ESKD risk score alone suffice or additional clinical and time-zero biopsy parameters enhance predictions. Machine learning-driven feature selection identified the best predictive parameters. RESULTS: None of the four models classified the eGFR slope with an AUC greater than 0.6 or an F1 score surpassing 0.41 despite training on different data subsets. Following machine learning-driven feature selection and subsequent retraining on these selected features, random forest and extreme gradient boosting outperformed other models, achieving an AUC of 0.66 and an F1 score of 0.44. After feature selection, two predictive donor attributes consistently appeared in all models: smoking-related features and glomerulitis of the Banff Lesion Score. CONCLUSIONS: Training machine learning-models with distinct predefined data subsets yielded unsatisfactory results. However, the efficacy of random forest and extreme gradient boosting improved when trained exclusively with machine learning-driven selected features, suggesting that the quality, rather than the quantity, of features is crucial for machine learning-model performance. This study offers insights into the application of emerging machine learning-techniques for the screening of living kidney donors.

2-Step-Scores with optional nephropathology for the prediction of adverse outcomes for brain-dead donor kidneys in Eurotransplant.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The decision for acceptance or discard of the increasingly rare and marginal brain-dead donor kidneys in Eurotransplant (ET) countries has to be made without solid evidence. Thus, we developed and validated flexible clinicopathological scores called 2-Step Scores for the prognosis of delayed graft function (DGF) and one-year death-censored transplant loss (1y-tl) reflecting the current practice of six ET countries including Croatia and Belgium. METHODS: The training set was n=620 for DGF and n=711 for 1y-tl, with validation sets n=158 and n=162. In step 1, stepwise logistic regression models including only clinical predictors were used to estimate the risks. In step 2, risk estimates were updated for statistically relevant intermediate risk percentiles with nephropathology. RESULTS: Step 1 revealed an increased risk of DGF with increased cold ischaemia time, donor and recipient BMI, dialysis vintage, number of HLA-DR mismatches or recipient CMV IgG positivity. On the training and validation set, c-statistics were 0.672 and 0.704, respectively. At a range between 18% and 36%, accuracy of DGF-prognostication improved with nephropathology including number of glomeruli and Banff cv (updated overall c statistics of 0.696 and 0.701, respectively).Risk of 1y-tl increased in recipients with cold ischaemia time, sum of HLA-A. -B, -DR mismatches and donor age. On training and validation sets, c-statistics were 0.700 and 0.769, respectively. Accuracy of 1y-tl prediction improved (c-statistics = 0.706 and 0.765) with Banff ct. Overall, calibration was good on the training, but moderate on the validation set; discrimination was at least as good as established scores when applied to the validation set. CONCLUSION: Our flexible 2-Step Scores with optional inclusion of time-consuming and often unavailable nephropathology should yield good results for clinical practice in ET, and may be superior to established scores. Our scores are adaptable to donation after cardiac death and perfusion pump use.

[Tailored surgery in the treatment of gastroesophageal cancer]. / Maßgeschneiderte Chirurgie in der Behandlung gastroösophagealer Tumoren.

The surgical options and particularly perioperative treatment, have significantly advanced in the case of gastroesophageal cancer. This progress enables a 5-year survival rate of nearly 50% to be achieved through curative multimodal treatment concepts for locally advanced cancer. Therefore, in tumor boards and surgical case discussions the question increasingly arises regarding the type of treatment that provides optimal oncological and functional outcomes for individual patients with pre-existing diseases. It is therefore essential to carefully assess whether organ-preserving treatment might also be considered in the future or in what way minimally invasive or robotic surgery can offer advantages. Simultaneously, the boundaries of surgical and oncological treatment are currently being shifted in order to enable curative forms of treatment for patients with pre-existing conditions or those with oligometastatic diseases. With the integration of artificial intelligence into decision-making processes, new possibilities for information processing are increasingly becoming available to incorporate even more data into making decisions in the future.