Estimated Number of People who Inject Drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Findings from a Two-survey Capture-Recapture Population Size Estimation Exercise.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS program managers in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam have always relied on the police reports and the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package for population size estimation of People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). METHODS: We used Respondent-driven Sampling (RDS) to implement a two-source capture-recapture study to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017. The study was implemented in seven out of 24 districts and included men and women ages 18 years and older who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days, and who had lived in the city for the past six months. Estimates of the PWID population size for each of the seven districts were calculated accounting for the RDS sampling design. These were then adjusted to account for the district sampling probabilities to give an estimate for HCMC. Chapman two-source capture-recapture estimates of population size, based on simple random sampling assumptions, were also calculated for comparison. RESULTS: The estimates resulted in a population size for HCMC of 19,155 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 17,006-25,039] using the RDS approach and 17,947 (95% CI: 15,968-19,928), using the Chapman approach. CONCLUSION: The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided estimates of PWID in HCMC - based on Chapman estimator and RDS approach - are similar. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

Population Size Estimation of Venue-Based Female Sex Workers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Capture-Recapture Exercise.

BACKGROUND: There is limited population size estimation of female sex workers (FSWs) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)-the largest city in Vietnam. Only 1 population size estimation among venue-based female sex workers (VFSWs) was conducted in 2012 in HCMC. Appropriate estimates of the sizes of key populations are critical for resource allocation to prevent HIV infection. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the population size of the VFSWs from December 2016 to January 2017 in HCMC, Vietnam. METHODS: A multistage capture-recapture study was conducted in HCMC. The capture procedures included selection of districts using stratified probability proportion to size, mapping to identify venues, approaching all VFSWs to screen their eligibility, and then distribution of a unique object (a small pink makeup bag) to all eligible VFSWs in all identified venues. The recapture exercise included equal probability random selection of a sample of venues from the initial mapping and then approaching FSWs in those venues to determine the number and proportion of women who received the unique object. The proportion and associated confidence bounds, calculated using sampling weights and accounting for study design, were then divided by the number of objects distributed to calculate the number of VFSWs in the selected districts. This was then multiplied by the inverse of the proportion of districts selected to calculate the number of VFSWs in HCMC as a whole. RESULTS: Out of 24 districts, 6 were selected for the study. Mapping identified 573 venues across which 2317 unique objects were distributed in the first capture. During the recapture round, 103 venues were selected and 645 VFSWs were approached and interviewed. Of those, 570 VFSWs reported receiving the unique object during the capture round. Total estimated VFSWs in the 6 selected districts were 2616 (95% CI 2445-3014), accounting for the fact that only 25% (6/24) of total districts were selected gives an overall estimate of 10,465 (95% CI 9782-12,055) VFSWs in HCMC. CONCLUSIONS: The capture-recapture exercise provided an estimated number of VFSWs in HCMC. However, for planning HIV prevention and care service needs among all FSWs, studies are needed to assess the number of sex workers who are not venue-based, including those who use social media platforms to sell services.