Modeling group formation and activity patterns in self-organizing collectives of individuals.

We construct and analyze a nonlocal continuum model for group formation with application to self-organizing collectives of animals in homogeneous environments. The model consists of a hyperbolic system of conservation laws, describing individual movement as a correlated random walk. The turning rates depend on three types of social forces: attraction toward other organisms, repulsion from them, and a tendency to align with neighbors. Linear analysis is used to study the role of the social interaction forces and their ranges in group formation. We demonstrate that the model can generate a wide range of patterns, including stationary pulses, traveling pulses, traveling trains, and a new type of solution that we call zigzag pulses. Moreover, numerical simulations suggest that all three social forces are required to account for the complex patterns observed in biological systems. We then use the model to study the transitions between daily animal activities that can be described by these different patterns.

How parasitism affects critical patch-size in a host-parasitoid model: application to the forest tent caterpillar.

Habitat structure has broad impacts on many biological systems. In particular, habitat fragmentation can increase the probability of species extinction and on the other hand it can lead to population outbreaks in response to a decline in natural enemies. An extreme consequence of fragmentation is the isolation of small regions of suitable habitat surrounded by a large region of hostile matrix. This scenario can be interpreted as a critical patch-size problem, well studied in a continuous time framework, but relatively new to discrete time models. In this paper we present an integrodifference host-parasitoid model, discrete in time and continuous in space, to study how the critical habitat-size necessary for parasitoid survival changes in response to parasitoid life history traits, such as emergence time. We show that early emerging parasitoids may be able to persist in smaller habitats than late emerging species. The model predicts that these early emerging parasitoids lead to more severe host outbreaks. We hypothesise that promoting efficient late emerging parasitoids may be key in reducing outbreak severity, an approach requiring large continuous regions of suitable habitat. We parameterise the model for the host species of the forest tent caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hbn., a pest insect for which fragmented landscape increases the severity of outbreaks. This host is known to have several parasitoids, due to paucity of data and as a first step in the modelling we consider a single generic parasitoid. The model findings are related to observations of the forest tent caterpillar offering insight into this host-parasitoid response to habitat structure.

Persistence, spread and the drift paradox.

We derive conditions for persistence and spread of a population where individuals are either immobile or dispersing by advection and diffusion through a one-dimensional medium with a unidirectional flow. Reproduction occurs only in the stationary phase. Examples of such systems are found in rivers and streams, marine currents, and areas with prevalent wind direction. In streams, a long-standing question, dubbed 'the drift paradox', asks why aquatic insects faced with downstream drift are able to persist in upper stream reaches. For our two-phase model, persistence of the population is guaranteed if, at low population densities, the local growth rate of the stationary component of the population exceeds the rate of entry of individuals into the drift. Otherwise the persistence condition involves all the model parameters, and persistence requires a critical (minimum) domain size. We calculate the rate at which invasion fronts propagate up- and downstream, and show that persistence and ability to spread are closely connected: if the population cannot advance upstream against the flow, it also cannot persist on any finite spatial domain. By studying two limiting cases of our model, we show that residence in the immobile state always enhances population persistence. We use our findings to evaluate a number of mechanisms previously proposed in the ecological literature as resolutions of the drift paradox.