ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: All-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease are increased in subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Risk scores are used to predict individual risk of heart disease. We performed a long-term follow-up study to investigate whether risk scores and cardiovascular risk factors such as arterial stiffness, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and oxidized LDL (OxLDL) can be used to predict cardiovascular events in Finnish men with MetS. METHODS: After baseline measurements we followed 105 Finnish men aged 30 to 65 years with MetS for a mean period of 16.4 years. The primary outcome of the study was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, symptomatic vascular disease diagnosed with invasive angiography, coronary or peripheral revascularization, amputation due to peripheral vascular disease, cardiovascular death and non-cardiovascular death. The endpoints were retrieved from electronic medical records. RESULTS: The number of acute myocardial infarctions and strokes during the first 10 years was lower than estimated by FINRISK score but SCORE predicted cardiovascular death correctly. During the whole follow-up period, 27 of 105 participants (25.8%) had 30 endpoint events. The incidence of the primary composite outcome was significantly lower in subjects with hs-CRP < 1.0 mg/L than in subjects with hs-CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/L (6 of 41 subjects [14.6%] vs. 21 of 64 subjects [32.8%]; p = 0.036). The incidence of the primary composite outcome was higher among subjects with large artery elasticity classified as borderline compared to subjects with normal large artery elasticity (5 of 10 subjects [50%] vs. 22 of 93 subjects [24%]; p = 0.05). There was no difference in the incidence of primary composite outcome in groups with different degrees of small artery elasticity or different level of oxLDL. CONCLUSIONS: Men with MetS who had hs-CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/L had higher risk for CVD and all-cause mortality than those with hs-CRP of < 1.0 mg/L. This also applies to subjects with borderline decreased large artery elasticity. The amount of OxLDL had no predictive value on the incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality. Men with MetS participating in the Hämeenlinna Metabolic Syndrome Research Program without lifestyle or drug intervention had better outcome for myocardial infarction or stroke than estimated by the FINRISK score. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01119404 retrospectively registered 07/05/2010.
