Bifurcation analysis of a discrete SIS model with bilinear incidence depending on new infection.

A discrete SIS epidemic model with the bilinear incidence depending on the new infection is formulated and studied. The condition for the global stability of the disease free equilibrium is obtained. The existence of the endemic equilibrium and its stability are investigated. More attention is paid to the existence of the saddle-node bifurcation, the flip bifurcation, and the Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for those bifurcations have been obtained. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical results and the complexity of the model.

Effects of allelochemicals produced by one population in a chemostat-like environment.

In this paper, we study some general models suggested to describe the effects of chemical compounds produced by an algal population on its survival in a chemostat-like environment. The conditions for its persistence and extinction are found. In particular, in the first model we make very general assumptions to represent the uptake, the regulative and the inhibiting functions, and analyze its global stability completely. In the second one we specify the first two functions and leave general the third one. Here the regulative function has different property from that in the first model, and a saddle-node bifurcation phenomenon occurs. In addition, according to the experimental data reported in DellaGreca et al. [2010. Fatty acids released by Clorella vulgaris and their role in interference with Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata: experiments and modelling. J. Chem. Ecol. 36, 339-349], we present a further model in which a new inhibiting function gives rise to a complex dynamics. The three models exhibit different dynamical behaviors, in particular the number of positive equilibria associated with each model varies resulting one, two and three, respectively. We also point out that the main differences exhibited by these models result from different specializations of the regulative and the inhibiting functions.

Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China.

Since the emergence of influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus in March-April 2009, very stringent interventions including Fengxiao were implemented to prevent importation of infected cases and decelerate the disease spread in mainland China. The extent to which these measures have been effective remains elusive. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of Fengxiao that may inform policy decisions on improving community-based interventions for management of on-going outbreaks in China, in particular during the Spring Festival in mid-February 2010 when nationwide traveling will be substantially increased. We obtained data on initial laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1 in the province of Shaanxi and used Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulations to estimate the reproduction number. Given the estimates for the exposed and infectious periods of the novel H1N1 virus, we estimated a mean reproduction number of 1.68 (95% CI 1.45-1.92) and other A/H1N1 epidemiological parameters. Our results based on a spatially stratified population dynamical model show that the early implementation of Fengxiao can delay the epidemic peak significantly and prevent the disease spread to the general population but may also, if not implemented appropriately, cause more severe outbreak within universities/colleges, while late implementation of Fengxiao can achieve nothing more than no implementation. Strengthening local control strategies (quarantine and hygiene precaution) is much more effective in mitigating outbreaks and inhibiting the successive waves than implementing Fengxiao. Either strong mobility or high transport-related transmission rate during the Spring Festival holiday will not reverse the ongoing outbreak, but both will result in a large new wave. The findings suggest that Fengxiao and travel precautions should not be relaxed unless strict measures of quarantine, isolation, and hygiene precaution practices are put in place. Integration and prompt implementation of these interventions can significantly reduce the overall attack rate of pandemic outbreaks.

Global stability of a class of discrete age-structured SIS models with immigration.

Immigration has an important influence on the growth of population and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. A discrete age-structured epidemic SIS model with immigration is formulated and its dynamical behavior is studied in this paper. It is found that population growth will be determined by the reproductive number and the immigration rate. In the simple case without infected immigration, the basic reproductive number is defined, and the global stability of equilibria is investigated. In the case with infected immigration, there is no disease-free equilibrium, and there always exists an endemic equilibrium, and the global stability conditions of the unique endemic equilibrium is obtained.

An HBV model with diffusion and time delay.

In this paper, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model with spatial diffusion and saturation response of the infection rate is investigated, in which the intracellular incubation period is modelled by a discrete time delay. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an infected steady state and an uninfected steady state is discussed. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproductive number is less than unity, the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproductive number is greater than unity, by successively modifying the coupled lower-upper solution pairs, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the infected steady state. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.

Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages.

HIV transmission process involves a long incubation and infection period, and the transmission rate varies greatly with infection stage. Consequently, modeling analysis based on the assumption of a constant transmission rate during the entire infection period yields an inaccurate description of HIV transmission dynamics and long-term projections. Here we develop a general framework of mathematical modeling that takes into account this heterogeneity of transmission rate and permits rigorous estimation of important parameters using a regression analysis of the twenty-year reported HIV infection data in China. Despite the large variation in this statistical data attributable to the knowledge of HIV, surveillance efforts, and uncertain events, and although the reported data counts individuals who might have been infected many years ago, our analysis shows that the model structured on infection age can assist us in extracting from this data set very useful information about transmission trends and about effectiveness of various control measures.

Global analysis of discrete-time SI and SIS epidemic models.

Discrete-time SI and SIS models formulated as the discretization of a continuous-time model may exhibit behavior different from that of the continuous-time model such as period-doubling and chaotic behavior unless the step size in the model is sufficiently small. Some new discrete-time SI and SIS epidemic models with vital dynamics are formulated and analyzed. These new models do not exhibit period doubling and chaotic behavior and are thus better approximations to continuous models. However, their reproduction numbers and therefore their asymptotic behavior can differ somewhat from that of the corresponding continuous-time model.

The stability of an sir epidemic model with time delays.

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model for the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors (mosquitoes ) which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point (if it exists) is globally stable with respect to a "weak delay". Some known results are generalized.

Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced seir models.

In this paper we derive threshold conditions for eradication of diseases that can be described by seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infectious- recovered (SEIR) models or their variants. For autonomous models, the basic reproduction number R(0) < 1 is usually both necessary and sufficient for the extinction of diseases. For seasonally forced models, R(0) is a function of time t. We find that for models without recruitment of susceptible individuals (via births or loss of immunity), max(t) {R(0)(t)} < 1 is required to prevent outbreaks no matter when and how the disease is introduced. For models with recruitment, if the latent period can be neglected, the disease goes extinct if and only if the basic reproduction number R' of the time-average systems (the autonomous systems obtained by replacing the time-varying parameters with their long-term time averages) is less than 1. Otherwise, R' < 1 is sufficient but not necessary for extinction. Thus, reducing R' of the average system to less than 1 is sufficient to prevent or curtail the spread of an endemic disease.

A compartmental model for the analysis of SARS transmission patterns and outbreak control measures in China.

We propose a compartmental model BloComp(2,7) that mimics the SARS control strategies implemented by the Chinese government after the middle of April 2003: the division of the whole population into two parallel blocks corresponding to the so-called free environment and the isolated environment and the partition of these blocks further into the compartments of susceptible, exposed, infective, possible, diagnosed, removed and the health care workers. We introduce a novel approach to calculate the transfer rate from the free environment to the isolated environment, and we incorporate into the model the fact that many individuals were misdiagnosed as SARS suspected and hence were mistakenly put in the isolated environment due to lack of fast and effective SARS diagnostic tests. We develop some methods for the parameter identification using the daily reported data from the Ministry of Health of China. Simulations based on these parameters agree with the accural data well, thus provide additional validation of the model. We then vary some parameters to assess the effectiveness of different control measures: these new parameters correspond to the situation when the quarantine measures in the free-environment were prematurely relaxed (we thus observe the second outbreak with the maximal number of daily SARS patients much higher than the first outbreak) or when the quarantine time of SARS patients is postponed (we observe delayed peak time but with much higher number of SARS patients at the peak). We also calculate the basic reproductive number and the basic adequate contact rate.

A predator-prey model with infected prey.

A predator-prey model with logistic growth in the prey is modified to include an SIS parasitic infection in the prey with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator population survives and when the disease remains endemic. For some parameter values the greater vulnerability of the infected prey allows the predator population to persist, when it would otherwise become extinct. Also the predation on the more vulnerable prey can cause the disease to die out, when it would remain endemic without the predators.

A discrete epidemic model for SARS transmission and control in China.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a rapidly spreading infectious disease which was transmitted in late 2002 and early 2003 to more than 28 countries through the medium of international travel. The evolution and spread of SARS has resulted in an international effort coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO). We have formulated a discrete mathematical model to investigate the transmission of SARS and determined the basic reproductive number for this model to use as a threshold to determine the asymptotic behavior of the model. The dependence of the basic reproductive number on epidemic parameters has been studied. The parameters of the model have been estimated on the basis of statistical data and numerical simulations have been carried out to describe the transmission process for SARS in China. The simulation results matches the statistical data well and indicate that early quarantine and a high quarantine rate are crucial to the control of SARS.

Coexistence of pathogens in sexually-transmitted disease models.

We present a sexually-transmitted disease (STD) model for two strains of pathogen in a one-sex, heterogeneously-mixing population, where the dynamics are of SIS (susceptible/infected/susceptible) type, and there are two different groups of individuals. We analyze all equilibria for the case where contacts are modeled via proportionate (random) mixing. We find that both strains may under suitable circumstances coexist, and that it is the heterogeneous mixing that creates "refuges" for each strain as each population group favors one particular strain.

Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate.

Heesterbeek and Metz [J. Math. Biol. 31 (1993) 529] derived an expression for the saturating contact rate of individual contacts in an epidemiological model. In this paper, the SEIR model with this saturating contact rate is studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is proved to be a sharp threshold which completely determines the global dynamics and the outcome of the disease. If R0 < or =1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If R0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and the disease persists at an endemic equilibrium state if it initially exists. The contribution of the saturating contact rate to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium is also analyzed.