Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. METHODS: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. RESULTS: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 µg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 µg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Links between the concentrations of gaseous pollutants measured in different regions of Estonia.

The factors that determine the concentrations of air pollutants (NO, NO2, SO2, O3), measured in 8 monitoring stations (4 rural background, 3 urban, and 1 industrial) in Estonia, are studied applying the factor analysis. The factor analysis reveals remarkable impact of COVID-19 lockdown, effects caused by dramatic decrease in oil-shale based energy production in Estonia provoked by new socio-economic conditions such as elevated price for CO2 emission quota, differences between rural and urban stations, maritime-continental difference for NO2 and ozone, and specific industrial impact in case of SO2. The multiple regression analysis to predict the ozone concentration in one rural background station at Tahkuse was performed, based on the ozone concentrations measured in other stations and the concentrations of NO, NO2, and CO2, recorded in the same station. It was found that the ozone concentration at Tahkuse is rather well predictable (determination coefficient, i.e., correlation coefficient squared, R 2 = 0.714), using only the concentrations from another rural station at Saarejärve that is about 110 km away from Tahkuse. Adding all the available data into the list of regression analysis arguments, the model predictability is improved moderately (determination coefficient R 2 = 0.795). Large model residuals above all tend to occur with the values measured and predicted at summer nights. Surprisingly, neither NO nor NO2 concentration measured in the Tahkuse station did appear a good predictor for ozone (R 2 = 0.02 and 0.05, respectively), possibly long-range transport of ozone (that has also experienced NO and/or NO2 influence during transport) overrides the local effects of NO and/or NO2.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

European aerosol phenomenology - 8: Harmonised source apportionment of organic aerosol using 22 Year-long ACSM/AMS datasets.

Organic aerosol (OA) is a key component of total submicron particulate matter (PM1), and comprehensive knowledge of OA sources across Europe is crucial to mitigate PM1 levels. Europe has a well-established air quality research infrastructure from which yearlong datasets using 21 aerosol chemical speciation monitors (ACSMs) and 1 aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) were gathered during 2013-2019. It includes 9 non-urban and 13 urban sites. This study developed a state-of-the-art source apportionment protocol to analyse long-term OA mass spectrum data by applying the most advanced source apportionment strategies (i.e., rolling PMF, ME-2, and bootstrap). This harmonised protocol was followed strictly for all 22 datasets, making the source apportionment results more comparable. In addition, it enables quantification of the most common OA components such as hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA), cooking-like OA (COA), more oxidised-oxygenated OA (MO-OOA), and less oxidised-oxygenated OA (LO-OOA). Other components such as coal combustion OA (CCOA), solid fuel OA (SFOA: mainly mixture of coal and peat combustion), cigarette smoke OA (CSOA), sea salt (mostly inorganic but part of the OA mass spectrum), coffee OA, and ship industry OA could also be separated at a few specific sites. Oxygenated OA (OOA) components make up most of the submicron OA mass (average = 71.1%, range from 43.7 to 100%). Solid fuel combustion-related OA components (i.e., BBOA, CCOA, and SFOA) are still considerable with in total 16.0% yearly contribution to the OA, yet mainly during winter months (21.4%). Overall, this comprehensive protocol works effectively across all sites governed by different sources and generates robust and consistent source apportionment results. Our work presents a comprehensive overview of OA sources in Europe with a unique combination of high time resolution (30-240 min) and long-term data coverage (9-36 months), providing essential information to improve/validate air quality, health impact, and climate models.

Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. METHODS: We applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators. RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.

BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. RESULTS: On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm or ≤2.5 µm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.

Mineral and Heavy Metal Composition of Oil Shale Ash from Oxyfuel Combustion.

Oxyfuel combustion can reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Hence, it is currently being investigated for potential use in oil shale-fired power plants, which currently produce most of Estonia's electricity. Here, experiments were performed with kukersite oil shale for both oxyfuel and conventional combustion in a 60 kWth circulating fluidized bed combustor. In this paper, we provide data on the ash composition including mineral compositions and heavy metal concentrations. Oxyfuel conditions did not noticeably influence the concentrations of heavy metals in the ash but did have significantly lower amounts of free lime because of inhibition of the carbonate decomposition reactions. The results suggest that oxyfuel combustion would produce no significant problems in terms of the behavior of the ash or the fate of heavy metals contained in the ash.

Association Between Health Symptoms and Particulate Matter from Traffic and Residential Heating - Results from RHINE III in Tartu.

BACKGROUND: Traffic and residential heating are the main sources of particulate matter (PM) in Northern Europe. Wood is widely used for residential heating and vehicle numbers are increasing. Besides traffic exhaust, studded tires produce road dust that is the main source of traffic-related PM10. Several studies have associated total PM mass with health symptoms; however there has been little research on the effects of PM from specific sources. OBJECTIVE: To study the health effects resulting from traffic and local heating PM. METHODS: Data on respiratory and cardiac diseases were collected within the framework of RHINE III (2011/2012) in Tartu, Estonia. Respondents' geocoded home addresses were mapped in ArcGIS and linked with local heating-related PM2.5, traffic-related PM10 and total PM2.5 concentrations. Association between self-reported health and PM was assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The annual mean modelled exposure for local heating PM2.5 was 2.3 µg/m3, for traffic PM10 3.3 µg/m3 and for all sources PM2.5 5.6 µg/m3. We found relationship between traffic induced PM10 as well as all sources induced PM2.5 with cardiac disease, OR=1.45 (95% CI 1.06-1.93) and 1.42 (95% CI 1.02-1.95), respectively. However, we did not find any significant association between residential heating induced particles and self-reported health symptoms. People with longer and better confirmed exposure period were also significantly associated with traffic induced PM10, all sources induced PM2.5 and cardiac diseases. CONCLUSION: Traffic-related PM10 and all sources induced PM2.5 associated with cardiac disease; whereas residential heating induced particles did not.

Well-being and environmental quality: Does pollution affect life satisfaction?

PURPOSE: We aimed to explore the effect of ambient air pollution on individual persons' levels of subjective well-being. Our research question was: to what extent is an individual's life satisfaction shaped by exposure to PM10? METHODS: We used regression models to analyse data on subjective well-being indicators from the last two waves of the European social survey (ESS) and detailed information on local levels of the air pollutant PM10. RESULTS: An increase in PM10 annual concentrations by 1 µg/m(3) was associated with a significant reduction in life satisfaction of .017 points on the ESS 10-point life satisfaction scale. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that even in cases of relatively low levels of PM10 air pollution (mean annual concentration of 8.3 ± 3.9 µg/m(3)), in addition to the effects on physical health, exposure negatively affects subjective assessments of well-being.