Do Demographic Factors Moderate How Well Criminal Thinking Predicts Recidivism?

Is the relationship between criminal thinking and recidivism the same for criminal justice-involved individuals from varying demographic backgrounds? Relying on two independent samples of offenders and two measures of criminal thinking, the current studies examined whether four demographic factors-gender, race, age, and education-moderated the relationship between criminal thinking and recidivism. Study 1 consisted of 226 drug-involved probationers enrolled in a randomized clinical trial. Study 2 consisted of 346 jail inmates from a longitudinal study. Logistic regression models suggested that the strength of the relationship between criminal thinking and subsequent recidivism did not vary based on participant demographics, regardless of justice system setting or measure of criminal thinking. Criminal thinking predicts recidivism similarly for people who are male, female, Black, White, older, younger, and more or less educated.

Does substance misuse moderate the relationship between criminal thinking and recidivism?

PURPOSE: Some differential intervention frameworks contend that substance use is less robustly related to recidivism outcomes than other criminogenic needs such as criminal thinking. The current study tested the hypothesis that substance use disorder severity moderates the relationship between criminal thinking and recidivism. METHODS: The study utilized two independent criminal justice samples. Study 1 included 226 drug-involved probationers. Study 2 included 337 jail inmates with varying levels of substance use disorder severity. Logistic regression was employed to test the main and interactive effects of criminal thinking and substance use on multiple dichotomous indicators of recidivism. RESULTS: Bivariate analyses revealed a significant correlation between criminal thinking and recidivism in the jail sample (r = .18, p < .05) but no significant relationship in the probation sample. Logistic regressions revealed that SUD symptoms moderated the relationship between criminal thinking and recidivism in the jail-based sample (B = -.58, p < .05). A significant moderation effect was not observed in the probation sample. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings indicate that substance use disorder symptoms moderate the strength of the association between criminal thinking and recidivism. These findings demonstrate the need for further research into the interaction between various dynamic risk factors.