Assessment and monitoring in clinical trials when survival curves have distinct shapes: a Bayesian approach with Weibull modelling.

The comparison of Weibull distributions with unequal shape parameters, in the case of right censored survival data obtained from independent samples, is considered within the framework of Bayesian statistical methodology. The procedures are illustrated with the example of a mortality study where a new treatment is compared to a placebo. The posterior distributions about relevant parameters, which may provide support for a conclusion of clinical superiority of the treatment, and the predictive distributions, which may guide decision about early stopping at an interim analysis, are considered for a class of appropriate priors.