ABSTRACT
High northern latitude changes with Arctic amplification across a latitudinal forest gradient suggest a shift towards an increased presence of trees and shrubs. The persistence of change may depend on the future scenarios of climate and on the current state, and site history, of forest structure. Here, we explore the persistence of a gradient-based shift in the boreal by connecting current forest patterns to recent tree cover trends and future modeled estimates of canopy height through 2100. Results show variation in the predicted potential height changes across the structural gradient from the boreal forest through the taiga-tundra ecotone. Positive potential changes in height are concentrated in transitional forests, where recent positive changes in cover prevail, while potential change in boreal forest is highly variable. Results are consistent across climate scenarios, revealing a persistent biome shift through 2100 in North America concentrated in transitional landscapes regardless of climate scenario.
ABSTRACT
Rapid atmospheric warming and sea-ice retreat are driving widespread changes in Arctic ecosystems, among the most pervasive of which is the "greening of the Arctic"-an increase in the cover and biomass of vegetation observed by satellites across much of the Arctic tundra biome. Determining the drivers, impacts, and feedbacks of Arctic greening requires continued investment in robust field, remote-sensing, and model-based capabilities, and improved integration of the knowledge base of Arctic peoples. These tools and approaches support the triangulation of complex problems and the development of improved projections for the warmer Arctic tundra biome of the future.
