Response to Critique of "The Insignificance of Thresholds in Environmental Impact Assessment: An Illustrative Case Study in Canada".

Our paper, "The Insignificance of Thresholds in Environmental Impact Assessment: An Illustrative Case Study in Canada" received a critique that challenged us on a number of grounds. Namely, that we defame EIA practitioners, that we advocate EIAs to become a scientific enterprise, that we do not recognize the complexity inherent in EIA, and that EIA undergo an independent assessment by regulators. We respond to all of these points, and argue that conflict of interest is an institutional issue (not one of corrupt practitioners), and that we critique the science that forms the basis of evidence in EIA. Further, we show that the complexity and uncertainty in the critique cannot explain the findings from our paper that all cases of impact threshold exceedance were determined to be not significant in EIA. Finally, we compare the significance determinations in proponent reports to final regulator decisions and determine that they are overwhelmingly identical (93-95%). Regulators are financially independent of proponents, but their decisions on significant are heavily dependent on the information and analysis provided by the proponent reports. As regulators rely on these reports, environmental impact assessments must be based on rigorous and transparent analysis.

The Insignificance of Thresholds in Environmental Impact Assessment: An Illustrative Case Study in Canada.

Environmental assessment is the process that decision-makers rely on to predict, evaluate, and prevent biophysical, social, and economic impacts of potential project developments. The determination of significance in environmental assessment is central to environmental management in many nations. We reviewed ten recent environmental impact assessments from British Columbia, Canada and systematically reviewed and scored significance determination and the approaches used by assessors, the use of thresholds in significance determination, threshold exceedances, and the outcomes. Findings of significant impacts were exceedingly rare and practitioners used a combination of significance determination approaches, most commonly relying upon reasoned argumentation. Quantitative thresholds were rarely employed, with less than 10% of the valued components evaluated using thresholds. Even where quantitative thresholds for significance were exceeded, in every case practitioners used a variety of rationales to demote negative impacts to non-significance. These reasons include combinations of scale (temporal and spatial) of impacts, an already exceeded baseline, model uncertainty and/or substituting less stringent thresholds. Governments and agencies can better protect resources by requiring clear and defensible significance determinations, by making government-defined thresholds legally enforceable and accountable, and by requiring or encouraging significance determination through inclusive and collaborative approaches.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

Trading green backs for green crabs: evaluating the commercial shellfish harvest at risk from European green crab invasion.

Nonnative species pose a threat to native biodiversity and can have immense impacts on biological communities, altering the function of ecosystems. How much value is at risk from high-impact invasive species, and which parameters determine variation in that value, constitutes critical knowledge for directing both management and research, but it is rarely available. We evaluated the value of the commercial shellfish harvest that is at risk in nearshore ecosystems of Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, from the invasive European green crab, Carcinus maenas. We assessed this value using a simple static ecological model combined with an economic model using data from Puget Sound's shellfish harvest and revenue and the relationship between C. maenas abundance and the consumption rate of shellfish. The model incorporates a range in C. maenas diet preference, calories consumed per year, and crab densities. C. maenas is likely to prey on commercially harvested hardshell clams, oysters, and mussels, which would likely reduce additional revenue from processing and distribution, and the number of jobs associated with these fisheries. The model results suggest possible revenue losses of these shellfish ranging from $1.03-23.8 million USD (2.8-64% losses), with harvesting and processing losses up to $44 million USD (40%) and 303 job positions each year associated with a range of plausible parameter values. The broad range of values reflects the uncertainty in key factors underlying impacts, factors that are highly variable across invaded regions and so not knowable a priori. However, future research evaluating species invasions can reduce the uncertainty of impacts by characterizing several key parameters: density of individuals, number of arrivals, predation and competition interactions, and economic impacts. This study therefore provides direction for research to inform more accurate estimates of value-at-risk, and suggests substantial motivation for strong measures to prevent, monitor, and manage the possible invasion of C. maenas.

Regional differentiation and post-glacial expansion of the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, an annual fish with high dispersal potential.

The coastal marine environment of the Northwest Atlantic contains strong environmental gradients that create distinct marine biogeographic provinces by limiting dispersal, recruitment, and survival. This region has also been subjected to numerous Pleistocene glacial cycles, resulting in repeated extirpations and recolonizations in northern populations of marine organisms. In this study, we examined patterns of genetic structure and historical demography in the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, an annual marine fish with high dispersal potential but with well-documented patterns of clinal phenotypic adaptation along the environmental gradients of the Northwest Atlantic. Contrary to previous studies indicating genetic homogeneity that should preclude regional adaptation, results demonstrate subtle but significant (FST = 0.07; P < 0.0001) genetic structure among three phylogeographic regions that partially correspond with biogeographic provinces, suggesting regional limits to gene flow. Tests for non-equilibrium population dynamics and latitudinal patterns in genetic diversity indicate northward population expansion from a single southern refugium following the last glacial maximum, suggesting that phylogeographic and phenotypic patterns have relatively recent origins. The recovery of phylogeographic structure and the partial correspondence of these regions to recognized biogeographic provinces suggest that the environmental gradients that shape biogeographic patterns in the Northwest Atlantic may also limit gene flow in M. menidia, creating phylogeographic structure and contributing to the creation of latitudinal phenotypic clines in this species.