Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents

Abstract Objective: To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents. Method: An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters. Results: Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/ 100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region. Conclusion: The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.

Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents. METHOD: An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters. RESULTS: Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region. CONCLUSION: The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.

Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health.

In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Self-reported clinical history of misdiagnosed leprosy cases in the State of Mato Grosso, Brzil, 2016-2019.

This study aimed to analyze the self-reported clinical history of patients misdiagnosed with leprosy in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study of new leprosy cases diagnosed in the State of Mato Grosso from 2016 to 2019, with individuals who were released from multidrug therapy due to misdiagnosis after starting treatment. Data were collected via telephone interviews. Over the study period, 354 leprosy cases were released from treatment due to misdiagnosis, of which 162 (45.8%) could be interviewed. All interviewees expressed dissatisfaction with their treatment, which prompted them to seek a reevaluation of their diagnosis before they were released due to "misdiagnosis". Among them, 35.8% received a final diagnosis of a musculoskeletal or connective tissue disease - mainly fibromyalgia and degenerative changes in the spine - followed by 13.6% with diagnoses of skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases. For 23.5% of the respondents, no alternative diagnosis was established, whereas 7.4% were later re-diagnosed with leprosy. Fibromyalgia and spinal problems were the most common alternative diagnoses for erroneous leprosy. Although the diagnosis of leprosy is usually clinical and does not require access to technical infrastructure in most cases, some more complex situations require diagnostic support via complementary tests, as well as close collaboration between primary care and reference services.

Self-reported clinical history of misdiagnosed leprosy cases in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2016-2019 / Histórico clínico autorreferido de casos mal classificados de hanseníase no Estado do Mato Grosso, Brasil, 2016-2019 / Historia clínica autorreportada de casos de lepra mal diagnosticados en el estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, 2016-2019

This study aimed to analyze the self-reported clinical history of patients misdiagnosed with leprosy in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study of new leprosy cases diagnosed in the State of Mato Grosso from 2016 to 2019, with individuals who were released from multidrug therapy due to misdiagnosis after starting treatment. Data were collected via telephone interviews. Over the study period, 354 leprosy cases were released from treatment due to misdiagnosis, of which 162 (45.8%) could be interviewed. All interviewees expressed dissatisfaction with their treatment, which prompted them to seek a reevaluation of their diagnosis before they were released due to "misdiagnosis". Among them, 35.8% received a final diagnosis of a musculoskeletal or connective tissue disease - mainly fibromyalgia and degenerative changes in the spine - followed by 13.6% with diagnoses of skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases. For 23.5% of the respondents, no alternative diagnosis was established, whereas 7.4% were later re-diagnosed with leprosy. Fibromyalgia and spinal problems were the most common alternative diagnoses for erroneous leprosy. Although the diagnosis of leprosy is usually clinical and does not require access to technical infrastructure in most cases, some more complex situations require diagnostic support via complementary tests, as well as close collaboration between primary care and reference services.

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o histórico clínico autorreferido de pacientes diagnosticados erroneamente com hanseníase no Estado do Mato Grosso, Brasil. Trata-se de um estudo transversal de novos casos de hanseníase diagnosticados no Estado do Mato Grosso, de 2016 a 2019, que após o início da poliquimioterapia foram liberados do tratamento devido a erros de diagnóstico. Para a coleta de dados, foram realizadas entrevistas telefônicas. Durante o período do estudo, 354 indivíduos com hanseníase foram liberados do tratamento por erro de diagnóstico, dos quais 162 (45,8%) puderam ser entrevistados. Todos os entrevistados expressaram insatisfação com o tratamento, levando à reavaliação do diagnóstico antes de serem liberados por "erro de diagnóstico". Dentre eles, 35,8% tinham como diagnóstico final uma doença musculoesquelética ou do tecido conjuntivo, principalmente fibromialgia e alterações na coluna vertebral, seguidos por 13,6% com diagnósticos de doenças de pele e tecido subcutâneo. Para 23,5% dos entrevistados, nenhum diagnóstico alternativo foi estabelecido, enquanto 7,4% foram posteriormente rediagnosticados com hanseníase. Diagnósticos errôneos de hanseníase foram mais frequentemente reclassificados como fibromialgia e problemas na coluna vertebral. Embora o diagnóstico da hanseníase seja geralmente clínico e não exija acesso à infraestrutura técnica na maioria dos casos, algumas situações mais complexas requerem apoio ao diagnóstico por meio de exames complementares, bem como estreita colaboração entre a atenção primária e os serviços de referência.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la historia clínica autorreportada de pacientes con diagnóstico erróneo de lepra en el estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Se trata de un estudio transversal de nuevos casos de lepra diagnosticados en el estado de Mato Grosso, en el periodo de 2016 a 2019, que, después de iniciar la quimioterapia multimedicamentosa, fueron dados de alta del tratamiento por errores diagnósticos. Para la recolección de datos se realizaron entrevistas telefónicas. Durante el periodo de estudio, 354 individuos con lepra fueron dados de alta del tratamiento por diagnóstico erróneo, de los cuales 162 (45,8%) fueron entrevistados. Todos los encuestados manifestaron su insatisfacción con el tratamiento, lo que llevó a una reevaluación del diagnóstico antes de ser dados de alta por "error de diagnóstico". Entre ellos, el 35,8% tenía como diagnóstico final una enfermedad musculoesquelética o del tejido conectivo, principalmente fibromialgia y cambios en la columna, seguidos de un 13,6% con diagnóstico de enfermedades de la piel y del tejido subcutáneo. El 23,5% de los encuestados no recibieron un diagnóstico alternativo, mientras que el 7,4% fueron rediagnosticados posteriormente con lepra. Los diagnósticos erróneos de lepra se reclasificaron con mayor frecuencia como fibromialgia y problemas de columna. Aunque el diagnóstico de lepra es generalmente clínico y, en la mayoría de los casos, no requiere acceso a infraestructura técnica, algunas situaciones más complejas necesitan pruebas complementarias para su diagnóstico, así como una estrecha colaboración entre la atención primaria y los servicios de referencia.

Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health / Poluição do ar por queimadas florestais como risco ambiental para milhões de habitantes da Amazônia brasileira: um indicador de exposição para a saúde humana / Contaminación del aire por incendios forestales como riesgo ambiental para millones de habitantes de la Amazonía brasileña: un indicador de exposición para la salud humana

Abstract: In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Resumo: Este estudo propõe um indicador de exposição à poluição do ar para identificar potenciais áreas de risco para a saúde humana na região amazônica e no Centro-oeste do Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Esse indicador agrega as concentrações e o tempo de exposição à partículas finas de poluição (PM2.5), de acordo com o limite atual recomendado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Foram utilizadas médias diárias de PM2.5 obtidas do Sistema de Informações Ambientais Integrado a Saúde (SISAM) para o cálculo dos percentuais de dias cujas concentrações ultrapassaram o limite de 15μg/m³ por ano e por mês. De 2010 a 2019, os meses de agosto a outubro apresentaram as maiores áreas e os maiores percentuais de dias com valores de concentração inaceitáveis para a saúde humana. Tais áreas estavam concentradas na região do arco do desmatamento. Além disso, 60% dos moradores da região amazônica e do Centro-oeste eram expostos a uma qualidade inadequada do ar por aproximadamente seis meses por ano. O indicador proposto é reprodutível e adequado para monitorizar as áreas de exposição e de risco para a saúde humana.

Resumen: Este estudio propone un indicador de exposición a la contaminación del aire para identificar posibles áreas de riesgo para la salud humana en la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste de Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Este indicador agrega las concentraciones y el tiempo de exposición a partículas finas de contaminación (PM2.5), de acuerdo con el límite actual recomendado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). Se utilizaron los promedios diarios de PM2.5 obtenidos del Sistema Integrado de Información Ambiental en Salud (SISAM) para calcular el porcentaje de días cuyas concentraciones superaron el límite de 15μg/m³ por año y por mes. En la década de 2010 a 2019, los meses de agosto a octubre tuvieron las áreas más grandes y los porcentajes más altos de días con valores de concentración inaceptables para la salud humana. Tales áreas se concentraron en la región del arco de la deforestación. Además, el 60% de los residentes de la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste estuvieron sujetos a una calidad del aire inadecuada durante aproximadamente seis meses al año. El indicador propuesto es reproducible y adecuado para monitorizar las áreas de exposición y de riesgo para la salud humana.

Trends in mortality from heart failure in Brazil: 1998 to 2019. / Tendência da mortalidade por insuficiência cardíaca no Brasil: 1998 a 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trend of mortality from heart failure in Brazilians aged 50 years and over, within 21 years. METHODS: Ecological study with time series analysis of mortality from heart failure in Brazil, according to regions and Federation Units, in individuals aged 50 years or older in the period from 1998 to 2019. Deaths that had heart failure as the underlying cause (coded as I50 according to the International Classification of Diseases) that occurred during the study period were included in the study. Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Statistical analyses were performed using the Stata 11.1 program, by estimating the mortality rate due to heart failure per 100 thousand inhabitants. In the trend analysis, the Prais-Winsten regression was used. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2019, 567,789 deaths from heart failure were recorded in adults aged over 50 years, which corresponds to an average rate of 75.5 per 100 thousand inhabitants. There was a downward trend per sex, regions, and in 23 Federation Units. The highest mortality rates were observed for older ages in all regions of the country. CONCLUSION: The trend in mortality rates from heart failure among Federation Units and Brazilian regions was downward over 21 years. There was an upward trend in mortality from heart failure in the northern region and in the category "other health facilities."

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por insuficiência cardíaca (IC) em brasileiros com 50 anos ou mais, em um período de 21 anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico com análise de série temporal da mortalidade por IC no Brasil, segundo regiões e Unidades Federativas (UF), em indivíduos com 50 anos ou mais, no período de 1998 a 2019. Foram incluídos todos os óbitos registrados que tinham por causa básica a IC, codificada na Classificação Internacional de Doenças como I50, no período de 1998 a 2019. Os dados foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde. As análises estatísticas foram realizadas no programa Stata 11.1, por meio do cálculo do coeficiente de mortalidade por IC por 100 mil habitantes. Na análise de tendência, foi utilizada a regressão de Prais-Winsten. RESULTADOS: Entre os anos de 1998 a 2019, foram registrados 567.789 óbitos por IC em adultos com idade acima de 50 anos, o que corresponde à taxa média de 75,5 a cada 100 mil habitantes. A tendência foi decrescente por sexo, regiões e em 23 UF. As maiores taxas de mortalidade observadas ocorreram nas idades mais avançadas em todas as regiões do país. CONCLUSÃO: A tendência das taxas de mortalidade por IC entre as UF e regiões brasileiras foi decrescente ao longo de 21 anos. Houve tendência crescente da mortalidade por IC na região Norte e na categoria outros estabelecimentos de saúde.

Spatio-temporal analysis of leprosy risks in a municipality in the state of Mato Grosso-Brazilian Amazon: results from the leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis program in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis (LPEP) with single dose rifampicin (SDR) can be integrated into different leprosy control program set-ups once contact tracing has been established. We analyzed the spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of index cases (IC) and co-prevalent cases among contacts of leprosy patients (CP) over the course of the LPEP program in one of the four study areas in Brazil, namely the municipality of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, in the Brazilian Amazon basin. METHODS: Leprosy cases were mapped, and socioeconomic indicators were evaluated to explain the leprosy distribution of all leprosy cases diagnosed in the period 2016-2018. Data were obtained on new leprosy cases [Notifiable diseases information system (Sinan)], contacts traced by the LPEP program, and socioeconomic variables [Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)]. Kernel, SCAN, factor analysis and spatial regression were applied to analyze changes. RESULTS: Overall, the new case detection rate (NCDR) was 20/10 000 inhabitants or 304 new cases, of which 55 were CP cases among the 2076 examined contacts. Changes over time were observed in the geographic distribution of cases. The highest concentration of cases was observed in the northeast of the study area, including one significant cluster (Relative risk = 2.24; population 27 427, P-value < 0.001) in an area characterized by different indicators associated with poverty as identified through spatial regression (Coefficient 3.34, P-value = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The disease distribution was partly explained by poverty indicators. LPEP influences the spatial dynamic of the disease and results highlighted the relevance of systematic contact surveillance for leprosy elimination.

Tendência da mortalidade por insuficiência cardíaca no Brasil: 1998 a 2019 / Trends in mortality from heart failure in Brazil: 1998 to 2019

ABSTRACT Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por insuficiência cardíaca (IC) em brasileiros com 50 anos ou mais, em um período de 21 anos. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com análise de série temporal da mortalidade por IC no Brasil, segundo regiões e Unidades Federativas (UF), em indivíduos com 50 anos ou mais, no período de 1998 a 2019. Foram incluídos todos os óbitos registrados que tinham por causa básica a IC, codificada na Classificação Internacional de Doenças como I50, no período de 1998 a 2019. Os dados foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde. As análises estatísticas foram realizadas no programa Stata 11.1, por meio do cálculo do coeficiente de mortalidade por IC por 100 mil habitantes. Na análise de tendência, foi utilizada a regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: Entre os anos de 1998 a 2019, foram registrados 567.789 óbitos por IC em adultos com idade acima de 50 anos, o que corresponde à taxa média de 75,5 a cada 100 mil habitantes. A tendência foi decrescente por sexo, regiões e em 23 UF. As maiores taxas de mortalidade observadas ocorreram nas idades mais avançadas em todas as regiões do país. Conclusão: A tendência das taxas de mortalidade por IC entre as UF e regiões brasileiras foi decrescente ao longo de 21 anos. Houve tendência crescente da mortalidade por IC na região Norte e na categoria outros estabelecimentos de saúde.

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the trend of mortality from heart failure in Brazilians aged 50 years and over, within 21 years. Methods: Ecological study with time series analysis of mortality from heart failure in Brazil, according to regions and Federation Units, in individuals aged 50 years or older in the period from 1998 to 2019. Deaths that had heart failure as the underlying cause (coded as I50 according to the International Classification of Diseases) that occurred during the study period were included in the study. Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Statistical analyses were performed using the Stata 11.1 program, by estimating the mortality rate due to heart failure per 100 thousand inhabitants. In the trend analysis, the Prais-Winsten regression was used. Results: Between 1998 and 2019, 567,789 deaths from heart failure were recorded in adults aged over 50 years, which corresponds to an average rate of 75.5 per 100 thousand inhabitants. There was a downward trend per sex, regions, and in 23 Federation Units. The highest mortality rates were observed for older ages in all regions of the country. Conclusion: The trend in mortality rates from heart failure among Federation Units and Brazilian regions was downward over 21 years. There was an upward trend in mortality from heart failure in the northern region and in the category "other health facilities."

Misdiagnosis of leprosy in Brazil in the period 2003 - 2017: spatial pattern and associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy causes a range of symptoms, and most diagnoses are established based on the clinical picture. Therefore, false negative and positive diagnoses are relatively common. We analyzed the spatial pattern of leprosy misdiagnosis and associated factors in Brazil. METHOD: Exploratory analyses of Kernel density of the new case detection rate (NCDR) and proportion of misdiagnosis in Brazil, 2003-2017. Factors associated with misdiagnosis were identified by logistic regression at the 5% significance level. RESULT: A total of 574,181 new leprosy cases were recorded in Brazil within the study period, of which 7,477 (1.3%) were misdiagnoses. No spatial correlation was observed between the proportion of misdiagnoses and the NCDR. The likelihood of misdiagnosis was elevated for females [OR: 1.58 (1.51-1.66)], children [OR: 1.49 (1.36-1.64)]; paucibacillary [OR: 1.08 (1.02-1.13)], indeterminate clinical forms [OR: 2.37 (2.15-2.62)], for cases diagnosed in the frame of mass screenings [OR: 3.36 (3.09- 3.73)] and contact examination [OR: 2.30 (2.13-2.49)] and for cases with affected nerves but no skin lesions [OR: 2.47 (2.19-2.77)] when compared with those presenting both skin lesion and affected nerves. CONCLUSION: Misdiagnosis of leprosy is not correlated with the endemicity level in Brazil but rather with personal, diagnosis-related and disease characteristics.