Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management.

Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0-1.2 °C and water column stability by 11-19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.

Evaluating the use of lake sedimentary DNA in palaeolimnology: A comparison with long-term microscopy-based monitoring of the phytoplankton community.

Palaeolimnological records provide valuable information about how phytoplankton respond to long-term drivers of environmental change. Traditional palaeolimnological tools such as microfossils and pigments are restricted to taxa that leave sub-fossil remains, and a method that can be applied to the wider community is required. Sedimentary DNA (sedDNA), extracted from lake sediment cores, shows promise in palaeolimnology, but validation against data from long-term monitoring of lake water is necessary to enable its development as a reliable record of past phytoplankton communities. To address this need, 18S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing was carried out on lake sediments from a core collected from Esthwaite Water (English Lake District) spanning ~105 years. This sedDNA record was compared with concurrent long-term microscopy-based monitoring of phytoplankton in the surface water. Broadly comparable trends were observed between the datasets, with respect to the diversity and relative abundance and occurrence of chlorophytes, dinoflagellates, ochrophytes and bacillariophytes. Up to 20% of genera were successfully captured using both methods, and sedDNA revealed a previously undetected community of phytoplankton. These results suggest that sedDNA can be used as an effective record of past phytoplankton communities, at least over timescales of <100 years. However, a substantial proportion of genera identified by microscopy were not detected using sedDNA, highlighting the current limitations of the technique that require further development such as reference database coverage. The taphonomic processes which may affect its reliability, such as the extent and rate of deposition and DNA degradation, also require further research.

Annual water residence time effects on thermal structure: A potential lake restoration measure?

Innovative methods to combat internal loading issues in eutrophic lakes are urgently needed to speed recovery and restore systems within legislative deadlines. In stratifying lakes, internal phosphorus loading is particularly problematic during the summer stratified period when anoxia persists in the hypolimnion, promoting phosphorus release from the sediment. A novel method to inhibit stratification by reducing residence times is proposed as a way of controlling the length of the hypolimnetic anoxic period, thus reducing the loading of nutrients from the sediments into the water column. However, residence time effects on stratification length in natural lakes are not well understood. We used a systematic modelling approach to investigate the viability of changes to annual water residence time in affecting lake stratification and thermal dynamics in Elterwater, a small stratifying eutrophic lake in the northwest of England. We found that reducing annual water residence times shortened and weakened summer stratification. Based on finer-scale dynamics of lake heat fluxes and water column stability we propose seasonal or sub-seasonal management of water residence time is needed for the method to be most effective at reducing stratification as a means of controlling internal nutrient loading.

Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake?

Anthropogenic eutrophication caused by excess loading of nutrients, especially phosphorus (P), from catchments is a major cause of lake water quality degradation. The release of P from bed sediments to the water column, termed internal loading, can exceed catchment P load in eutrophic lakes, especially those that stratify during warm summer periods. Managing internal P loading is challenging, and although a range of approaches have been implemented, long-term success is often limited, requiring lake-specific solutions. Here, we assess the manipulation of lake residence time to inhibit internal loading in Elterwater, a shallow stratifying lake in the English Lake District, UK. Since 2016, additional inflowing water has been diverted into the inner basin of Elterwater to reduce its water residence time, with the intention of limiting the length of the stratified period and reducing internal loading. Combining eight years of field data in a Before-After-Control-Impact study with process-based hydrodynamic modelling enabled the quantification of the residence time intervention effects on stratification length, water column stability, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and P. Annual water residence time was reduced during the study period by around 40% (4.9 days). Despite this change, the lake continued to stratify and developed hypolimnetic anoxia. As a result, there was little significant change in phosphorus (as total or soluble reactive phosphorus) or chlorophyll a concentrations. Summer stratification length was 2 days shorter and 7% less stable with the intervention. Our results suggest that the change to water residence time in Elterwater was insufficient to induce large enough physical changes to improve water quality. However, the minor physical changes suggest the management measure had some impact and that larger changes in water residence time may have the potential to induce reductions in internal loading. Future assessments of management requirements should combine multi-year observations and physical lake modelling to provide improved understanding of the intervention effect size required to alter the physical structure of the lake, leading to increased hypolimnetic oxygen and reduced potential for internal loading.

Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes.

The concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems helps to regulate biodiversity1,2, nutrient biogeochemistry3, greenhouse gas emissions4, and the quality of drinking water5. The long-term declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations in coastal and ocean waters have been linked to climate warming and human activity6,7, but little is known about the changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes. Although the solubility of dissolved oxygen decreases with increasing water temperatures, long-term lake trajectories are difficult to predict. Oxygen losses in warming lakes may be amplified by enhanced decomposition and stronger thermal stratification8,9 or oxygen may increase as a result of enhanced primary production10. Here we analyse a combined total of 45,148 dissolved oxygen and temperature profiles and calculate trends for 393 temperate lakes that span 1941 to 2017. We find that a decline in dissolved oxygen is widespread in surface and deep-water habitats. The decline in surface waters is primarily associated with reduced solubility under warmer water temperatures, although dissolved oxygen in surface waters increased in a subset of highly productive warming lakes, probably owing to increasing production of phytoplankton. By contrast, the decline in deep waters is associated with stronger thermal stratification and loss of water clarity, but not with changes in gas solubility. Our results suggest that climate change and declining water clarity have altered the physical and chemical environment of lakes. Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75 to 9.3 times greater than observed in the world's oceans6,7 and could threaten essential lake ecosystem services2,3,5,11.

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Wide-spread inconsistency in estimation of lake mixed depth impacts interpretation of limnological processes.

The mixed layer, or epilimnion, is a physical concept referring to an isothermal layer at the surface of a water body. This concept is ubiquitous within limnology, is fundamental to our understanding of chemical and ecological processes, and is an important metric for water body monitoring, assessment and management. Despite its importance as a metric, many different approaches to approximating mixed depth currently exist. Using data from field campaigns in a small meso-eutrophic lake in the UK in 2016 and 2017 we tested whether different definitions of mixed depth resulted in comparable estimates and whether variables other than temperature could be assumed to be mixed within the layer. Different methods resulted in very different estimates for the mixed depth and ecologically important variables were not necessarily homogenously spread through the epilimnion. Furthermore, calculation of simple ecologically relevant metrics based on mixed depth showed that these metrics were highly dependent on the definition of mixed depth used. The results demonstrate that an idealised concept of a well-defined fully mixed layer is not necessarily appropriate. The widespread use of multiple definitions for mixed depth impairs the comparability of different studies while associated uncertainty over the most appropriate definition limits the confirmability of studies utilising the mixed depths.

Protecting and restoring Europe's waters: An analysis of the future development needs of the Water Framework Directive.

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a pioneering piece of legislation that aims to protect and enhance aquatic ecosystems and promote sustainable water use across Europe. There is growing concern that the objective of good status, or higher, in all EU waters by 2027 is a long way from being achieved in many countries. Through questionnaire analysis of almost 100 experts, we provide recommendations to enhance WFD monitoring and assessment systems, improve programmes of measures and further integrate with other sectoral policies. Our analysis highlights that there is great potential to enhance assessment schemes through strategic design of monitoring networks and innovation, such as earth observation. New diagnostic tools that use existing WFD monitoring data, but incorporate novel statistical and trait-based approaches could be used more widely to diagnose the cause of deterioration under conditions of multiple pressures and deliver a hierarchy of solutions for more evidence-driven decisions in river basin management. There is also a growing recognition that measures undertaken in river basin management should deliver multiple benefits across sectors, such as reduced flood risk, and there needs to be robust demonstration studies that evaluate these. Continued efforts in 'mainstreaming' water policy into other policy sectors is clearly needed to deliver wider success with WFD goals, particularly with agricultural policy. Other key policy areas where a need for stronger integration with water policy was recognised included urban planning (waste water treatment), flooding, climate and energy (hydropower). Having a deadline for attaining the policy objective of good status is important, but even more essential is to have a permanent framework for river basin management that addresses the delays in implementation of measures. This requires a long-term perspective, far beyond the current deadline of 2027.

Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities.

The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species.

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy.

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Editorial - A critical perspective on geo-engineering for eutrophication management in lakes.

Eutrophication is the primary worldwide water quality issue. Reducing excessive external nutrient loading is the most straightforward action in mitigating eutrophication, but lakes, ponds and reservoirs often show little, if any, signs of recovery in the years following external load reduction. This is due to internal cycling of phosphorus (P). Geo-engineering, which we can here define as activities intervening with biogeochemical cycles to control eutrophication in inland waters, represents a promising approach, under appropriate conditions, to reduce P release from bed sediments and cyanobacteria accumulation in surface waters, thereby speeding up recovery. In this overview, we draw on evidence from this special issue Geoengineering in Lakes, and on supporting literature to provide a critical perspective on the approach. We demonstrate that many of the strong P sorbents in the literature will not be applicable in the field because of costs and other constraints. Aluminium and lanthanum modified compounds are among the most effective compounds for targeting P. Flocculants and ballast compounds can be used to sink cyanobacteria, in the short term. We emphasize that the first step in managing eutrophication is a system analysis that will reveal the main water and P flows and the biological structure of the waterbody. These site specific traits can be significant confounding factors dictating successful eutrophication management. Geo-engineering techniques, considered collectively, as part of a tool kit, may ensure successful management of eutrophication through a range of target effects. In addition, novel developments in modified zeolites offer simultaneous P and nitrogen control. To facilitate research and reduce the delay from concept to market a multi-national centre of excellence is required.

A meta-analysis of water quality and aquatic macrophyte responses in 18 lakes treated with lanthanum modified bentonite (Phoslock(®)).

Lanthanum (La) modified bentonite is being increasingly used as a geo-engineering tool for the control of phosphorus (P) release from lake bed sediments to overlying waters. However, little is known about its effectiveness in controlling P across a wide range of lake conditions or of its potential to promote rapid ecological recovery. We combined data from 18 treated lakes to examine the lake population responses in the 24 months following La-bentonite application (range of La-bentonite loads: 1.4-6.7 tonnes ha(-1)) in concentrations of surface water total phosphorus (TP; data available from 15 lakes), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP; 14 lakes), and chlorophyll a (15 lakes), and in Secchi disk depths (15 lakes), aquatic macrophyte species numbers (6 lakes) and aquatic macrophyte maximum colonisation depths (4 lakes) across the treated lakes. Data availability varied across the lakes and variables, and in general monitoring was more frequent closer to the application dates. Median annual TP concentrations decreased significantly across the lakes, following the La-bentonite applications (from 0.08 mg L(-1) in the 24 months pre-application to 0.03 mg L(-1) in the 24 months post-application), particularly in autumn (0.08 mg L(-1) to 0.03 mg L(-1)) and winter (0.08 mg L(-1) to 0.02 mg L(-1)). Significant decreases in SRP concentrations over annual (0.019 mg L(-1) to 0.005 mg L(-1)), summer (0.018 mg L(-1) to 0.004 mg L(-1)), autumn (0.019 mg L(-1) to 0.005 mg L(-1)) and winter (0.033 mg L(-1) to 0.005 mg L(-1)) periods were also reported. P concentrations following La-bentonite application varied across the lakes and were correlated positively with dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Relatively weak, but significant responses were reported for summer chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi disk depths following La-bentonite applications, the 75th percentile values decreasing from 119 µg L(-1) to 74 µg L(-1) and increasing from 398 cm to 506 cm, respectively. Aquatic macrophyte species numbers and maximum colonisation depths increased following La-bentonite application from a median of 5.5 species to 7.0 species and a median of 1.8 m to 2.5 m, respectively. The aquatic macrophyte responses varied significantly between lakes. La-bentonite application resulted in a general improvement in water quality leading to an improvement in the aquatic macrophyte community within 24 months. However, because, the responses were highly site-specific, we stress the need for comprehensive pre- and post-application assessments of processes driving ecological structure and function in candidate lakes to inform future use of this and similar products.