Dynamic individual vital sign trajectory early warning score (DyniEWS) versus snapshot national early warning score (NEWS) for predicting postoperative deterioration.

AIMS: International early warning scores (EWS) including the additive National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and logistic EWS currently utilise physiological snapshots to predict clinical deterioration. We hypothesised that a dynamic score including vital sign trajectory would improve discriminatory power. METHODS: Multicentre retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from postoperative patients admitted to cardiac surgical wards in four UK hospitals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-type regression (LASSO) was used to develop a dynamic model (DyniEWS) to predict a composite adverse event of cardiac arrest, unplanned intensive care re-admission or in-hospital death within 24 h. RESULTS: A total of 13,319 postoperative adult cardiac patients contributed 442,461 observations of which 4234 (0.96%) adverse events in 24 h were recorded. The new dynamic model (AUC = 0.80 [95% CI 0.78-0.83], AUPRC = 0.12 [0.10-0.14]) outperforms both an updated snapshot logistic model (AUC = 0.76 [0.73-0.79], AUPRC = 0.08 [0.60-0.10]) and the additive National Early Warning Score (AUC = 0.73 [0.70-0.76], AUPRC = 0.05 [0.02-0.08]). Controlling for the false alarm rates to be at current levels using NEWS cut-offs of 5 and 7, DyniEWS delivers a 7% improvement in balanced accuracy and increased sensitivities from 41% to 54% at NEWS 5 and 18% to -30% at NEWS 7. CONCLUSIONS: Using an advanced statistical approach, we created a model that can detect dynamic changes in risk of unplanned readmission to intensive care, cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality and can be used in real time to risk-prioritise clinical workload.

Impact of the anesthesiologist and surgeon on cardiac surgical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of anesthesiologists, surgeons, and their monthly caseload volume on mortality after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Ten-year audit of prospectively collected cardiac surgical data. SETTING: Large adult cardiothoracic hospital. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 18,569 cardiac surgical patients in the decade from April 2002 through March 2012, plus 21 consultant surgeons and 29 consultant anesthesiologists. INTERVENTIONS: Major risk-stratified cardiac surgical operations. METHODS: The primary outcome was in-hospital death. Random intercept models for the surgeon and anesthesiologist cluster, respectively, were fitted, achieving risk-adjustment through the logistic EuroSCORE. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) subsequently was used to measure the amount of outcome variation due to clustering. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After exclusions (duplicates, very-short-term appointments, and cases performed by more than one consultant), there were 18,426 patients with 581 (3.15%) in-hospital deaths. The overwhelming factor associated with outcome variation was the patient risk profile, accounting for 97.14% of the variation. The impact of the surgeon was small (ICC = 2.78%), and the impact of the anesthesiologist was negligible (ICC = 0.08%). Low monthly surgeon volume of surgery, adjusted for average case mix, was associated with higher risk-adjusted mortality (odds ratio = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Outcome was determined primarily by the patient. There were small but significant differences in outcome between surgeons. The attending anesthesiologist did not affect patient outcome in this institution. Low average monthly surgeon volume was a significant risk factor. In contrast, low average monthly anesthesiologist volume had no effect.

Six-year prospective audit of 'scoop and run' for chest-reopening after cardiac arrest in a cardiac surgical ward setting.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to identify which cardiac surgical ward patients benefit from 'scoop and run' to the operating room for chest reopening. METHODS: In-hospital arrests in a cardiothoracic hospital were prospectively audited over a 6-year period. The following pieces of information were collected for every patient who was scooped to the operating room following cardiac arrest on the postoperative cardiac surgical wards: type of arrest, time since surgery, patient physiology before arrest, time to chest reopening, location of chest opening, surgical findings on reopening, time to cardiopulmonary bypass (if used) and patient outcomes. EXCLUSIONS: arrests in intensive care unit (ICU) and operating rooms. The primary outcome measure was survival to discharge from the hospital. RESULTS: There were 99 confirmed ward arrests in 97 cardiac surgical patients. The overall survival rates to discharge and at 1 year were 53.6% (52 of 97 patients) and 44.3% (43 of 97 patients), respectively. Twenty-one of the 97 (21.6%) patients underwent scoop and run to the operating room or ICU. Five of 12 daytime 'scoop and runs' survived to discharge, whereas none of nine survived where scoop and run was undertaken at night (P < 0.05). There was a trend towards increased survival when 'scoop and run' was undertaken following ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia arrests (P = 0.06) and in younger patients (P = 0.12) but neither achieved statistical significance. The median time out from surgery of survivors was 4 days (range 2-14 days). The median time to chest opening in survivors was 22 min. Cardiopulmonary bypass was utilized in four of five survivors. The median ICU and hospital lengths of stay were 176 h (range 34-857) and 28 days (range 13-70), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The key determinant of a favourable 'scoop and run' outcome was whether the arrest occurred during daytime or night-time hours (P < 0.05). Despite a median time to chest opening of 22 min, all five survivors were discharged neurologically intact. The median time from surgery in these survivors was 4 days. Because of the risk of hypoxic brain damage, 'scoop and run' should be restricted to patients suffering witnessed arrests. The study has potential implications for resuscitation training and out-of-hours medical staffing in cardiothoracic hospitals.