A sequential approach to the diagnosis of coronary artery disease using multivariate analysis.

There has been considerable interest in recent years in enhancing the accuracy of noninvasive tests in diagnosing coronary artery disease. The recognition that no currently available test is a perfect predictor has led to the use of probability analysis as a means of assessing the presence or absence of coronary disease. In this article we present a multivariate approach to the diagnosis of coronary disease. One hundred forty-seven patients undergoing coronary angiography, thallium-201 imaging, and exercise ECG were studied. Patients were classified according to age, sex, and typical vs atypical chest pain. Sequential stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to develop probability statements prior to testing, after exercise ECG, and after exercise ECG and thallium-201. The results indicate that this sequential approach can be used to develop strategies for the diagnosis of coronary disease in the same way as Bayes' theorem, while permitting integration of multiple characteristics into one model.

Quantitative thallium-201 imaging: limitations in detecting pathophysiologically significant obstructive coronary artery disease.

Washout of thallium-201 after stress testing has been proposed as a method of detecting abnormal zonal myocardial perfusion without relating it to a reference "normal" area. Therefore, 18 patients with single-vessel coronary artery disease, undergoing percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, underwent maximum stress testing and thallium imaging. A myocardial perfusion defect was seen in the immediate postexercise images in all 19 zones (one patient studied twice) supplied by the vessel with the obstructive lesion. Delayed images showed improvement in 15 of the 19 segments. Of the four zones which did not improve, three had evidence of a prior nontransmural myocardial infarction. Quantitative analysis of washout curves showed that counts decreased in 17 of 19 zones after background subtraction and in all 19 zones if background was not subtracted. In the corresponding normal zones directionally similar decreases in counts were seen. Thus washout characteristics were similar for both diseased and normal zones. These data indicate that washout curves are limited in their ability to detect the presence of a physiologically significant lesion.

Critical analysis of the application of Bayes' theorem to sequential testing in the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

The utility of Bayes' theorem in the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) was analyzed in 147 patients who underwent electrocardiographic stress testing, thallium-201 perfusion imaging and coronary angiography. Eighty-nine patients had typical anginal chest discomfort and 58 had atypical chest pain. Sensitivity and specificity of the tests and prevalence of CAD at each level of testing were tabulated and compared with the results generated from Bayes' theorem. The sensitivity of electrocardiographic stress was higher in patients with multivessel CAD than in patients with 1-vessel CAD. Sensitivity, but not specificity, of each test was dependent, in part, on the result of the other test. However, the probabilities calculated from Bayes' theorem when used for sequential testing are remarkably close to the tabulated data. Thus, Bayes' theorem is useful clinically despite some evidence of test dependence. Sequential test analysis by Bayes' theorem is most useful in establishing or ruling out a diagnosis when the pretest prevalence is approximately 50% and when the 2 tests are concordant.