Early prediction of in-hospital mortality utilizing multivariate predictive modelling of electronic medical records and socio-determinants of health of the first day of hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: In France an average of 4% of hospitalized patients die during their hospital stay. To aid medical decision making and the attribution of resources, within a few days of admission the identification of patients at high risk of dying in hospital is essential. METHODS: We used de-identified routine patient data available in the first 2 days of hospitalization in a French University Hospital (between 2016 and 2018) to build models predicting in-hospital mortality (at ≥ 2 and ≤ 30 days after admission). We tested nine different machine learning algorithms with repeated 10-fold cross-validation. Models were trained with 283 variables including age, sex, socio-determinants of health, laboratory test results, procedures (Classification of Medical Acts), medications (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code), hospital department/unit and home address (urban, rural etc.). The models were evaluated using various performance metrics. The dataset contained 123,729 admissions, of which the outcome for 3542 was all-cause in-hospital mortality and 120,187 admissions (no death reported within 30 days) were controls. RESULTS: The support vector machine, logistic regression and Xgboost algorithms demonstrated high discrimination with a balanced accuracy of 0.81 (95%CI 0.80-0.82), 0.82 (95%CI 0.80-0.83) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.80-0.83) and AUC of 0.90 (95%CI 0.88-0.91), 0.90 (95%CI 0.89-0.91) and 0.90 (95%CI 0.89-0.91) respectively. The most predictive variables for in-hospital mortality in all three models were older age (greater risk), and admission with a confirmed appointment (reduced risk). CONCLUSION: We propose three highly discriminating machine-learning models that could improve clinical and organizational decision making for adult patients at hospital admission.

Cohort profile for development of machine learning models to predict healthcare-related adverse events (Demeter): clinical objectives, data requirements for modelling and overview of data set for 2016-2018.

PURPOSE: In-hospital health-related adverse events (HAEs) are a major concern for hospitals worldwide. In high-income countries, approximately 1 in 10 patients experience HAEs associated with their hospital stay. Estimating the risk of an HAE at the individual patient level as accurately as possible is one of the first steps towards improving patient outcomes. Risk assessment can enable healthcare providers to target resources to patients in greatest need through adaptations in processes and procedures. Electronic health data facilitates the application of machine-learning methods for risk analysis. We aim, first to reveal correlations between HAE occurrence and patients' characteristics and/or the procedures they undergo during their hospitalisation, and second, to build models that allow the early identification of patients at an elevated risk of HAE. PARTICIPANTS: 143 865 adult patients hospitalised at Grenoble Alpes University Hospital (France) between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2018. FINDINGS TO DATE: In this set-up phase of the project, we describe the preconditions for big data analysis using machine-learning methods. We present an overview of the retrospective de-identified multisource data for a 2-year period extracted from the hospital's Clinical Data Warehouse, along with social determinants of health data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, to be used in machine learning (artificial intelligence) training and validation. No supplementary information or evaluation on the part of medical staff will be required by the information system for risk assessment. FUTURE PLANS: We are using this data set to develop predictive models for several general HAEs including secondary intensive care admission, prolonged hospital stay, 7-day and 30-day re-hospitalisation, nosocomial bacterial infection, hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism, and in-hospital mortality.

COVID-19 Geographical Maps and Clinical Data Warehouse PREDIMED.

PREDIMED, Clinical Data Warehouse of Grenoble Alps University Hospital, is currently participating in daily COVID-19 epidemic follow-up via spatial and chronological analysis of geographical maps. This monitoring is aimed for cluster detection and vulnerable population discovery. Our real-time geographical representations allow us to track the epidemic both inside and outside the hospital.

ODIASP: Clinically Contextualized Image Analysis Using the PREDIMED Clinical Data Warehouse, Towards a Better Diagnosis of Sarcopenia.

Big Data and Deep Learning approaches offer new opportunities for medical data analysis. With these technologies, PREDIMED, the clinical data warehouse of Grenoble Alps University Hospital, sets up first clinical studies on retrospective data. In particular, ODIASP study, aims to develop and evaluate deep learning-based tools for automatic sarcopenia diagnosis, while using data collected via PREDIMED, in particular, medical images. Here we describe a methodology of data preparation for a clinical study via PREDIMED.

Cohort Creation and Visualization Using Graph Model in the PREDIMED Health Data Warehouse.

Grenoble Alpes University Hospital (CHUGA) is currently deploying a health data warehouse called PREDIMED [1], a platform designed to integrate and analyze for research, education and institutional management the data of patients treated at CHUGA. PREDIMED contains healthcare data, administrative data and, potentially, data from external databases. PREDIMED is hosted by the CHUGA Information Systems Department and benefits from its strict security rules. CHUGA's institutional project PREDIMED aims to collaborate with similar projects in France and worldwide. In this paper, we present how the data model defined to implement PREDIMED at CHUGA is useful for medical experts to interactively build a cohort of patients and to visualize this cohort.

PREDIMED: Clinical Data Warehouse of Grenoble Alpes University Hospital.

Grenoble Alpes University Hospital (CHUGA) currently deploys a clinical data warehouse PREDIMED to integrate and analyze for research, education and institutional management the data of patients treated at CHUGA. In this poster, we present the methodology used to implement PREDIMED and illustrate its functionality through three first research use cases.