Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 in patients with hepatitis B and C: a pre-vaccination study.

The serological markers for the diagnosis of COVID-19 plays an important role in the epidemiological investigation of the pandemic. This study aims to assess the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 in hepatitis B and C patients in a pre-vaccination of COVID-19 period. Between March 2020 and January 2021, 199 serum samples from individuals with HBsAg/HBV DNA or anti-HCV/HCV RNA positivity were tested for antibodies (IgM and IgG) against SARS-CoV-2 using Electrochemiluminescent Immunoassay (ECLIA). Among these, 50.3 % (100/199) tested positive for hepatitis C virus infection and 49.7 % (99/199) for hepatitis B virus, confirmed through molecular and serological diagnosis. The anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 24.1 % (48/199) in this population, with 23.23 % (23/99) hepatitis B and 25 % (25/100) hepatitis C patients tested positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2. The higher seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 (16.58 %, 33/199) was detected among those over-40 years of age and the month of November 2020 had the highest number of detections 9 % (18/199) with the majority living in impoverished and neglected neighborhoods in the city of Rio de Janeiro. We found a high prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 in patients with viral hepatitis before COVID-19 vaccination. This demonstrates the high exposure of this population during the period of social isolation.

Spatial-temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2020: expansion and challenges.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis results from complex interactions among humans, dogs and environment. Brazil accounts for 97% of cases in the Americas. METHODS: Twenty years (2001-2020) of the endemic disease in the state of Rio de Janeiro were studied. Incidence, lethality, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were investigated, complemented with spatial methodologies (kernel and clusters). RESULTS: Ninety-seven human cases and 625 dogs were reported. Of the 92 cities, 22 were human endemic areas. The state had a low incidence level (0.6 per 100 000). Lethality was higher compared with the Brazilian average. More than 90% of infections occurred in urban areas. Most cases (66%) occurred in men. The predominant age groups were 0-4 y (28.7%) and 20-39 y (32.9%). Fever (89.5%), splenomegaly (83.2%) and hepatomegaly (76.8%) were the main clinical manifestations. Spatial analysis showed a displacement of the human endemic: in the first decade (2001-2010), cases were concentrated in the Metropolitan region, and in the second decade (2011-2020) in the Médio Paraíba region of the state. Most of the endemic area (56.4%) had canine infections without reported human cases. CONCLUSIONS: Disorderly urbanisation and precarious living conditions favour the transmission of the disease. Changes in the environment and migratory processes contribute to its expansion.

Characteristics of women diagnosed with mpox infection compared to men: A case series from Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cisgender men were mostly affected during the 2022 mpox multinational outbreak, with few cases reported in women. This study compares the characteristics of individuals diagnosed with mpox infection according to gender in Rio de Janeiro. METHODS: We obtained surveillance data of mpox cases notified to Rio de Janeiro State Health Department (June 12 to December 15, 2022). We compared women (cisgender or transgender) to men (cisgender or transgender) using chi-squared, Fisher's exact, and Mood's median tests. RESULTS: A total of 1306 mpox cases were reported; 1188 (91.0%) men (99.8% cisgender, 0.2% transgender), 108 (8.3%) women (87.0% cisgender, 13.0% transgender), and 10 (0.8%) non-binary persons. Compared to men, women were more frequently older (40+years: 34.3% vs. 25.1%; p < 0.001), reported more frequent non-sexual contact with a potential mpox case (21.4% vs. 9.8%; p = 0.004), fewer sexual partnerships (10.9 vs. 54.8%; p < 0.001), less sexual contact with a potential mpox case (18.5% vs. 43.0%; p < 0.001), fewer genital lesions (31.8% vs. 57.9%; p < 0.001), fewer systemic mpox signs/symptoms (38.0% vs. 50.1%; p = 0.015) and had a lower HIV prevalence (8.3% vs. 46.3%; p < 0.001), with all cases among transgender women. Eight women were hospitalized; no deaths occurred. The highest number of cases among women were notified in epidemiological week 34, when the number of cases among men started to decrease. CONCLUSIONS: Women diagnosed with mpox presented differences in epidemiological, behavioral, and clinical characteristics compared to men. Health services should provide a comprehensive assessment that accounts for gender diversity.

Evaluation of Mpox Knowledge, Stigma, and Willingness to Vaccinate for Mpox: Cross-Sectional Web-Based Survey Among Sexual and Gender Minorities.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 multicountry mpox outbreak positioned the condition as a public health emergency of international concern. By May 2023, Brazil ranked second globally in the cumulative number of mpox cases and deaths. The higher incidence of mpox among gay and other men who have sex with men in the current mpox outbreak deepens the stigma and discrimination against sexual and gender minorities (SGM). This might worsen the structural barriers impacting access to health services, which ultimately leads to undertesting and underreporting of cases. There are no data available on mpox knowledge and stigma in Latin America. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate mpox knowledge, stigma, and willingness to vaccinate for mpox among SGM, and to describe sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics according to self-reported mpox diagnosis. METHODS: A cross-sectional, internet-based survey was conducted in a convenience sample of adults (aged >18 years) living in Brazil recruited through advertisements on dating apps, social media, referral institutions for infectious diseases websites, and mass media (October-November 2022). We compared participants' characteristics according to self-reported mpox diagnosis using chi-square test or Fisher exact test for qualitative variables and Kruskal-Wallis test for quantitative variables. RESULTS: We enrolled 6236 participants: 5685 (91.2%) were cisgender men; 6032 (96.7%) were gay, bisexual, or pansexual; 3877 (62.2%) were White; 4902 (78.7%) had tertiary education; and 4070 (65.2%) reported low or middle income. Most participants (n=5258, 84.4%) agreed or strongly agreed that "LGBTQIA+ individuals are being discriminated and stigmatized due to mpox." Mpox awareness was 96.9% (n=6044), and 5008 (95.1%) were willing to get vaccinated for mpox. Overall, 324 (5.2%) reported an mpox diagnosis. Among these, 318 (98.1%) reported lesions, 178 (56%) local pain, and 316 (99.4%) sought health care. Among participants not reporting a diagnosis, 288 (4.9%) had a suspicious lesion, but only 158 (54.9%) of these had sought health care. Compared to participants with no diagnosis, those reporting an mpox diagnosis were younger (P<.001), reported more sex partners (P<.001), and changes in sexual behavior after mpox onset (P=.002). Moreover, participants diagnosed with mpox reported more frequently being tested for HIV in the prior 3 months (P<.001), living with HIV (P<.001), currently using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (P<.001), and previous sexually transmitted infection diagnosis (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to high mpox knowledge and willingness to vaccinate among SGM in Brazil. Participants self-reporting mpox diagnosis more frequently reported to be living with HIV, STI diagnosis, and current pre-exposure prophylaxis use, highlighting the importance of an mpox assessment that includes comprehensive sexual health screenings. Efforts to decrease stigma related to mpox among SGM are necessary to avoid mpox underdiagnosis.

Ambulatory and hospitalized patients with suspected and confirmed mpox: an observational cohort study from Brazil.

Background: By October 30, 2022, 76,871 cases of mpox were reported worldwide, with 20,614 cases in Latin America. This study reports characteristics of a case series of suspected and confirmed mpox cases at a referral infectious diseases center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Methods: This was a single-center, prospective, observational cohort study that enrolled all patients with suspected mpox between June 12 and August 19, 2022. Mpox was confirmed by a PCR test. We compared characteristics of confirmed and non-confirmed cases, and among confirmed cases according to HIV status using distribution tests. Kernel estimation was used for exploratory spatial analysis. Findings: Of 342 individuals with suspected mpox, 208 (60.8%) were confirmed cases. Compared to non-confirmed cases, confirmed cases were more frequent among individuals aged 30-39 years, cisgender men (96.2% vs. 66.4%; p < 0.0001), reporting recent sexual intercourse (95.0% vs. 69.4%; p < 0.0001) and using PrEP (31.6% vs. 10.1%; p < 0.0001). HIV (53.2% vs. 20.2%; p < 0.0001), HCV (9.8% vs. 1.1%; p = 0.0046), syphilis (21.2% vs. 16.3%; p = 0.43) and other STIs (33.0% vs. 21.6%; p = 0.042) were more frequent among confirmed mpox cases. Confirmed cases presented more genital (77.3% vs. 39.8%; p < 0.0001) and anal lesions (33.1% vs. 11.5%; p < 0.0001), proctitis (37.1% vs. 13.3%; p < 0.0001) and systemic signs and symptoms (83.2% vs. 64.5%; p = 0.0003) than non-confirmed cases. Compared to confirmed mpox HIV-negative, HIV-positive individuals were older, had more HCV coinfection (15.2% vs. 3.7%; p = 0.011), anal lesions (45.7% vs. 20.5%; p < 0.001) and clinical features of proctitis (45.2% vs. 29.3%; p = 0.058). Interpretation: Mpox transmission in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, rapidly evolved into a local epidemic, with sexual contact playing a crucial role in its dynamics and high rates of coinfections with other STI. Preventive measures must address stigma and social vulnerabilities. Funding: Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (INI-Fiocruz).

Characterizing altruistic motivation in potential volunteers for SARS-CoV-2 challenge trials.

In human challenge trials (HCTs), volunteers are deliberately infected with an infectious agent. Such trials can be used to accelerate vaccine development and answer important scientific questions. Starting early in the COVID-19 pandemic, ethical concerns were raised about using HCTs to accelerate development and approval of a vaccine. Some of those concerns pertained to potential exploitation of and/or lack of truly informed consent from volunteers. Specific areas of concern arose around individuals who may be unusually risk-seeking or too economically vulnerable to refuse the payments these trials provide, as opposed to being motivated primarily by altruistic goals. This pre-registered study is the first large-scale survey to characterize people who, early in the pandemic, expressed interest and intention to volunteer to participate in COVID-19 HCTs. We found that individuals expressing interest in SARS-CoV-2 HCTs exhibit consistently altruistic motivations without any special indication of poor risk perception or economic vulnerability. In finding that, early in the pandemic, COVID-19 HCTs were able to attract volunteers whose values align with the nature of these trials, and who are not unusually vulnerable to exploitation, this study may allay some ethical concerns about the volunteers interested in participating in such trials.

Spatial Distribution of Canine Sporotrichosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1998-2018) and Its Correlation with Socioeconomic Conditions.

Canine sporotrichosis is a poorly described global disease and a spatial approach has not yet been used to assess the disease in dogs. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the occurrence of canine sporotrichosis in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2018 and its correlation with socioeconomic characteristics using exploratory spatial data analysis. A total of 295 cases of canine sporotrichosis were identified and 249 were georeferenced. There was a higher concentration of cases in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, as well as along the border of the city and the adjacent municipalities in the great metropolitan area. The cases occurred in areas where most of the dwellings are houses. Moreover, no focus of disease density was found in the southern part of Rio de Janeiro city over the period studied, possibly due to better socioeconomic conditions. Areas with a high concentration of canine sporotrichosis cases coincided with regions that possessed a low proportion of households without paving, suggesting that the disease is not necessarily linked to extreme poverty. The mapping of areas with a greater density of cases is fundamental to formulate targeted and strategic plans in order to implement effective public health prevention and control measures.

The ethical case for placebo control in HIV-cure-related studies with ART interruption.

Many studies that seek to cure HIV must ask participants to interrupt their antiretroviral treatment. In such circumstances, is it permissible to include a placebo group in the study? We explain why doing so is a scientific and an ethical necessity, and more benign than imagined.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against coronavirus disease 2019 in Brazil?

BACKGROUND: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. METHODS: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. RESULTS: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.

A Spatial Analysis of the Spread of Hyperendemic Sporotrichosis in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Sporotrichosis is a subacute/chronic subcutaneous mycosis. Since the late 1990s, there has been a hyperendemic zoonotic transmission in the state of Rio de Janeiro, involving Sporothrix brasiliensis, the most virulent causative species, and a "belt" was described along the limits between the capital and its outskirts ("Baixada Fluminense"). This study analyzes the distribution of sporotrichosis using secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) of the Rio de Janeiro State Health Department (SES/RJ) from 2011 to 2015 and from the INI Electronic Patient Record System (Sipec) from 2008 to 2015. Cases diagnosed since the onset of the hyperendemic exceed all previously reported case series of the disease and there is a progressive expansion in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The study suggests the spread of the mycosis to all regions of the state and the expansion of the previously described "belt", despite public health measures and changes in its profile over the years, with great social impact.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine Prioritization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries May Justifiably Depart From High-Income Countries' Age Priorities.

In high-income countries that were first to roll out coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, older adults have thus far usually been prioritized for these vaccines over younger adults. Age-based priority primarily resulted from interpreting evidence available at the time, which indicated that vaccinating the elderly first would minimize COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations. The World Health Organization counsels a similar approach for all countries. This paper argues that some low- and middle-income countries that are short of COVID-19 vaccine doses might be justified in revising this approach and instead prioritizing certain younger persons when allocating current vaccines or future variant-specific vaccines.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting transmission of sylvatic yellow fever in the 2017-2019 outbreak in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that, despite the existence of a safe and effective vaccine, continues to cause outbreaks of varying dimensions in the Americas and Africa. Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil registered un unprecedented sylvatic YFV outbreak whose severity was the result of its spread into zones of the Atlantic Forest with no signals of viral circulation for nearly 80 years. METHODS: To investigate the influence of climatic, environmental, and ecological factors governing the dispersion and force of infection of YFV in a naïve area such as the landscape mosaic of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), we combined the analyses of a large set of data including entomological sampling performed before and during the 2017-2019 outbreak, with the geolocation of human and nonhuman primates (NHP) and mosquito infections. RESULTS: A greater abundance of Haemagogus mosquitoes combined with lower richness and diversity of mosquito fauna increased the probability of finding a YFV-infected mosquito. Furthermore, the analysis of functional traits showed that certain functional groups, composed mainly of Aedini mosquitoes which includes Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes, are also more representative in areas where infected mosquitoes were found. Human and NHP infections were more common in two types of landscapes: large and continuous forest, capable of harboring many YFV hosts, and patches of small forest fragments, where environmental imbalance can lead to a greater density of the primary vectors and high human exposure. In both, we show that most human infections (~ 62%) occurred within an 11-km radius of the finding of an infected NHP, which is in line with the flight range of the primary vectors. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our data suggest that entomological data and landscape composition analyses may help to predict areas permissive to yellow fever outbreaks, allowing protective measures to be taken to avoid human cases.

Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability. RESULTS: Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability.

Should rare diseases get special treatment?

Orphan drug policy often gives 'special treatment' to rare diseases, by giving additional priority or making exceptions to specific drugs, based on the rarity of the conditions they aim to treat. This essay argues that the goal of orphan drug policy should be to make prevalence irrelevant to funding decisions. It aims to demonstrate that it is severity, not prevalence, which drives our judgments that important claims are being overlooked when treatments for severe rare diseases are not funded. It shows that prioritising severity avoids problems caused by prioritising rarity, and that it is compatible with a range of normative frameworks. The implications of a severity-based view for drug development are then derived. The severity-based view also accounts for what is wrong with how the current system of drug development unfairly neglects common diseases that burden the developing world. Lastly, the implications of a severity-based view for current orphan drug policies are discussed.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against coronavirus disease 2019 in Brazil?

ABSTRACT Background: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. Methods: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. Results: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. Conclusions: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against covid-19 in Brazil? / Como superar a estagnação da curva de cobertura vacinal de primeira dose contra covid-19 no Brasil?

This study described the temporal evolution of first-dose vaccination coverage against Covid-19 in Brazil and in the states. The country has 84.86% of the population eligible for vaccination and currently coverage for the first dose is 74.95%. There has been a slowdown in the application of first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (APC 0.83%, 95% CI 0.75 - 0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation, synchronized with the beginning of the debate on the effectiveness of vaccine and proximity to the population limit eligible for vaccination. It is important to create strategies to increase the population's access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is urgent to seek approval for vaccination in children, increasing the eligible population.

Este estudo descreveu a evolução temporal da cobertura vacinal de primeira dose contra a Covid-19 no Brasil e estados. O país possui 84,86% da população elegível para vacinação e atualmente a cobertura de primeira dose é de 74,95%. Há uma desaceleração na aplicação de primeiras doses no Brasil desde a semana epidemiológica 36 (APC 0,83%, IC 95% 0,75 ­ 0,91%), com tendência próxima de estagnação, sincronizadas com o início do debate sobre efetividade da vacina e proximidade do limite de população elegível à vacinação. É importante criar estratégias para aumentar o acesso da população aos postos de vacinação. Além disso, é urgente buscar a aprovação da vacinação em crianças, aumentando a população elegível.

[Spatial and temporal patterns of mortality among motorcyclists in a State of the Brazilian Northeast in the 21st century]. / Padrões espaciais e temporais da mortalidade de motociclistas em estado do nordeste brasileiro no século XXI.

The scope of this work was to analyze the trend and distribution of mortality among motorcyclists in traffic accidents in the State of Alagoas. It involved an ecological study relating to all deaths resulting from motorcycle accidents in the state in the period from 2001 to 2015. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (MIS). Mortality rates were calculated and stratified by gender. The joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis and the Annual Percentage Variation (APV) was calculated with a significance rate of 5%. For the spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian modeling and Moran statistics and spatial scanning statistics were applied. There were 1,458 deaths of motorcyclists in the period studied, 91.3% of which were men. Three temporal behaviors were observed in this population group: growth (2001-2005), stationary pattern (2005-2013) and decline from 2013 onwards. The highest rates were observed in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' regions of the state of Alagoas. Five spatial clusters were revealed with relation to general and male mortality, all located in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' hinterlands of Alagoas. The modeling showed a reduction of mortality from 2013 onwards and the spatial analysis revealed that the problem is more acute in the interior of the state.

Este trabalho objetivou analisar a tendência e a distribuição espacial da mortalidade de motociclistas em acidentes de transporte no estado de Alagoas. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico referente a todos os óbitos decorrentes de acidentes motociclísticos no estado no período 2001-2015. Os dados de mortalidade foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas e estratificadas por sexo. Para a análise de tendência, foi empregado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão. Calculou-se a Variação Percentual Anual (VPA). Significância de 5%. Para a análise espacial, aplicou-se modelagem bayesiana empírica local, estatística de Moran e estatística de varredura espacial. Foram registrados 1.458 óbitos de motociclistas no período estudado, sendo 91,3% homens. Três comportamentos temporais foram observados nessa população: crescimento (2001-2005), padrão estacionário (2005-2013) e declínio a partir de 2013. As maiores taxas foram observadas no agreste e sertão. Cinco aglomerados espaciais foram evidenciados no que se refere à mortalidade geral e masculina, todos situados no agreste e sertão alagoanos. A modelagem mostrou redução da mortalidade a partir de 2013 e a análise espacial evidenciou que o problema é mais grave no interior do estado.

Padrões espaciais e temporais da mortalidade de motociclistas em estado do nordeste brasileiro no século XXI / Spatial and temporal patterns of mortality among motorcyclists in a State of the Brazilian Northeast in the 21st century

Resumo Este trabalho objetivou analisar a tendência e a distribuição espacial da mortalidade de motociclistas em acidentes de transporte no estado de Alagoas. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico referente a todos os óbitos decorrentes de acidentes motociclísticos no estado no período 2001-2015. Os dados de mortalidade foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas e estratificadas por sexo. Para a análise de tendência, foi empregado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão. Calculou-se a Variação Percentual Anual (VPA). Significância de 5%. Para a análise espacial, aplicou-se modelagem bayesiana empírica local, estatística de Moran e estatística de varredura espacial. Foram registrados 1.458 óbitos de motociclistas no período estudado, sendo 91,3% homens. Três comportamentos temporais foram observados nessa população: crescimento (2001-2005), padrão estacionário (2005-2013) e declínio a partir de 2013. As maiores taxas foram observadas no agreste e sertão. Cinco aglomerados espaciais foram evidenciados no que se refere à mortalidade geral e masculina, todos situados no agreste e sertão alagoanos. A modelagem mostrou redução da mortalidade a partir de 2013 e a análise espacial evidenciou que o problema é mais grave no interior do estado.

Abstract The scope of this work was to analyze the trend and distribution of mortality among motorcyclists in traffic accidents in the State of Alagoas. It involved an ecological study relating to all deaths resulting from motorcycle accidents in the state in the period from 2001 to 2015. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (MIS). Mortality rates were calculated and stratified by gender. The joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis and the Annual Percentage Variation (APV) was calculated with a significance rate of 5%. For the spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian modeling and Moran statistics and spatial scanning statistics were applied. There were 1,458 deaths of motorcyclists in the period studied, 91.3% of which were men. Three temporal behaviors were observed in this population group: growth (2001-2005), stationary pattern (2005-2013) and decline from 2013 onwards. The highest rates were observed in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' regions of the state of Alagoas. Five spatial clusters were revealed with relation to general and male mortality, all located in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' hinterlands of Alagoas. The modeling showed a reduction of mortality from 2013 onwards and the spatial analysis revealed that the problem is more acute in the interior of the state.

Novo século, velho problema: tendência da mortalidade infantil e seus componentes no Nordeste brasileiro / New century, old problems: infant mortality trend and its components in the northeast region of Brazil

Resumo Introdução A mortalidade infantil ainda representa um desafio para os países em desenvolvimento. Objetivo Analisar a tendência da mortalidade infantil e seus componentes nos estados do Nordeste brasileiro entre 2001 e 2015. Método Estudo ecológico envolvendo quatro indicadores de mortalidade infantil: geral, neonatal precoce, neonatal tardia e pós-neonatal. Foi aplicado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão (joinpoint regression). A tendência foi classificada em crescente, decrescente ou estacionária. Calculou-se o Percentual de Variação Anual (APC, Annual Percent Change), considerando Intervalo de Confiança de 95%. Resultados Foi observada tendência decrescente da mortalidade infantil geral no Nordeste (-3,9%) e em todos os estados, sendo Pernambuco com maior redução (-5,2%). Na mortalidade neonatal precoce, somente o Maranhão apresentou tendência estacionária (-0,2%). Na mortalidade neonatal tardia, Maranhão, Piauí, Paraíba e Sergipe apresentaram padrão estacionário. A mortalidade pós-neonatal foi a que apresentou maior redução, tendo destaque Alagoas (-8,6%) e Pernambuco (-7,6%). No Nordeste, esse componente apresentou variação anual de -6,1%. A partir do final da primeira década, a mortalidade pós-neonatal apresentou padrão estacionário no Nordeste, destacando-se Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte e Sergipe. Conclusão Embora tenha sido verificada redução da mortalidade infantil no Nordeste do Brasil, o comportamento estacionário em alguns estados configura motivo de preocupação, tendo em vista que os valores ainda são muito elevados quando comparados aos de locais desenvolvidos.

Abstract Background Infant mortality still represents a challenge for developing countries. Objective To assess the infant mortality trend and its components in the Brazilian Northeast states between 2001 and 2015. Method Ecological study consisting of four indicators of infant mortality were analyzed as following: general, early neonatal, late neonatal and post-neonatal mortalities. A regression analysis was applied to fit the inflection point (joinpoint regression). The trends were classified as increasing, decreasing or stationary. The Annual Percent Change (APC) was calculated considering a 95% confidence interval. Results Decreasing trend of overall infant mortality in the Northeast region (-3.9%) could be measured; the state of Pernambuco showed the greatest reduction (-5.2%). Regarding the early neonatal mortality, only the state of Maranhão showed stationary trends (-0.2%). With respect to the late neonatal mortality, the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Paraíba and Sergipe showed stationary pattern. The post-neonatal mortality presented the greatest reduction, being highlighted the values of this significant reduction in the states of Alagoas (-8.6) and Pernambuco (-7.6). Considering the entire region, this component showed an APC of -6.1%. At the end of the first decade, post-neonatal mortality showed a stationary pattern over the Northeast region, with the highest values in the states of Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. Conclusion Although it has been a reduction in infant mortality in Northeastern Brazil, the stationary pattern in some states produced reasons for concern, considering that rates are still very elevated when compared to developed areas.