Long-term ice phenology records spanning up to 578 years for 78 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere.

In recent decades, lakes have experienced unprecedented ice loss with widespread ramifications for winter ecological processes. The rapid loss of ice, resurgence of winter biology, and proliferation of remote sensing technologies, presents a unique opportunity to integrate disciplines to further understand the broad spatial and temporal patterns in ice loss and its consequences. Here, we summarize ice phenology records for 78 lakes in 12 countries across North America, Europe, and Asia to permit the inclusion and harmonization of in situ ice phenology observations in future interdisciplinary studies. These ice records represent some of the longest climate observations directly collected by people. We highlight the importance of applying the same definition of ice-on and ice-off within a lake across the time-series, regardless of how the ice is observed, to broaden our understanding of ice loss across vast spatial and temporal scales.

Increased winter drownings in ice-covered regions with warmer winters.

Winter activities on ice are culturally important for many countries, yet they constitute a high safety risk depending upon the stability of the ice. Because consistently cold periods are required to form stable and thick ice, warmer winters could degrade ice conditions and increase the likelihood of falling through the ice. This study provides the first large-scale assessment of winter drowning from 10 Northern Hemisphere countries. We documented over 4000 winter drowning events. Winter drownings increased exponentially in regions with warmer winters when air temperatures neared 0°C. The largest number of drownings occurred when winter air temperatures were between -5°C and 0°C, when ice is less stable, and also in regions where indigenous traditions and livelihood require extended time on ice. Rates of drowning were greatest late in the winter season when ice stability declines. Children and adults up to the age of 39 were at the highest risk of winter drownings. Beyond temperature, differences in cultures, regulations, and human behaviours can be important additional risk factors. Our findings indicate the potential for increased human mortality with warmer winter air temperatures. Incorporating drowning prevention plans would improve adaptation strategies to a changing climate.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320-570 years.

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443-2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693-2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

Fish and Fisheries Ecology.

My paper on fish and fisheries ecology is offered to demonstrate a rich blending of applied and fundamental ecology, achieved by the intersections among fishery science, ichthyology, and ecology. The example, while specific, parallels practices and opportunities available in other areas of applied ecology. The emergence of fish and fisheries ecology as a discipline is evidence by such recent textbooks as Fisheries ecology by Pitcher and Hart (1982) and Ecology of teleost fishes by Wootton (1990). The ecology relevant to fish and fisheries includes not only marine and freshwater ecology, oceanography, and limnology, but also terrestrial study. Early work in fish and fisheries ecology came from Stephen A. Forbes > 100 yr ago in his books On some interactions of organisms (Forbes 1880) and The lake as a microcosm (Forbes 1887). These constitute one of the earliest conceptualizations of an ecosystem. By 1932 E. S. Russell concluded that fishery research was a study in marine ecology. I give examples of applications from six different categories of ecology. (1) Physiological ecology: The F. E. J. Fry school of fish physiology developed the concepts of temperature as a lethal, controlling and directive factor. More than 40 yr later, this knowledge is being combined with G. E. Hutchinson's concept of an n-dimensional niche to analyze potential influences of global climate warming on fishes. (2) Behavioral ecology: A. D. Hasler and students formulated and tested the hypothesis of olfactory imprinting as the mechanism by which Pacific salmon "home" to their natal spawning streams. Applications to reestablish salmon runs are as important to Hasler as the original scientific discovery; this is evident in his proposed "Salmon for Peace" for the river bounding USSR and China. (3) Population ecology: The realization that reproductive success of fishes depends more on larval mortality than on egg production emerged from the ideas of J. Hjort (1914). To this day inconsistencies between recruitment and reproductive stock size impart uncertainty into fishery management, while the search for explanatory mechanisms attracts the curious mind. (4) Community ecology: Species interactions are the grist of community ecology; predation and fishing are a natural for comparative study and application. Also, consumption by fish can control the dynamics of planktonic and benthic animal/plant communities; thus, apparent water quality of lakes depends on the consumer community as well as on nutrient inputs. (5) Ecosystem ecology: D. S. Rawson grouped external, abiotic influences on lakes into climatic, edaphic, and morphometric factors. The morphoedaphic index (Ryder 1965) predicts fish yields from this base, providing fish managers with a useful approximation and ecologists with a conceptual base for synthesis of production processes. (6) Landscape ecology: Regional ecology often incorporates land-water boundaries into the way ecological systems work. Application of island biogeography to lakes, as islands, has allowed predictions of fish assemblages for use by managers. Also, the extent and connectedness of lake and ocean "landscapes" offer insight into contrasts between marine and freshwater fishery research and management. In conclusion, the ecotone between academic and applied ecology seems an ideal place from which to advance both applied ecology and ecology in general.