Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS: Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION: Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42020186886.

Improving medical certification of cause of death: effective strategies and approaches based on experiences from the Data for Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely cause of death (COD) data are essential for informed public health policymaking. Medical certification of COD generally provides the majority of COD data in a population and is an essential component of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Accurate completion of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCOD) should be a relatively straightforward procedure for physicians, but mistakes are common. Here, we present three training strategies implemented in five countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne (UoM) and evaluate the impact on the quality of certification. METHODS: The three training strategies evaluated were (1) training of trainers (TOT) in the Philippines, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka; (2) direct training of physicians by the UoM D4H in Papua New Guinea (PNG); and (3) the implementation of an online and basic training strategy in Peru. The evaluation involved an assessment of MCCODs before and after training using an assessment tool developed by the University of Melbourne. RESULTS: The TOT strategy led to reductions in incorrectly completed certificates of between 28% in Sri Lanka and 40% in the Philippines. Following direct training of physicians in PNG, the reduction in incorrectly completed certificates was 30%. In Peru, the reduction in incorrect certificates was 30% after implementation and training on an online system only and 43% after training on both the online system and basic medical certification principles. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that a variety of training strategies can produce benefits in the quality of certification, but further improvements are possible. The experiences of D4H suggest several aspects of the strategies that should be further developed to improve outcomes, particularly key stakeholder engagement from early in the intervention and local committees to oversee activities and support an improved culture in hospitals to support better diagnostic skills and practices.

Applicability of the APACHE II model to a lower middle income country.

PURPOSE: To determine the utility of APACHE II in a low-and middle-income (LMIC) setting and the implications of missing data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients meeting APACHE II inclusion criteria admitted to 18 ICUs in Sri Lanka over three consecutive months had data necessary for the calculation of APACHE II, probabilities prospectively extracted from case notes. APACHE II physiology score (APS), probabilities, Standardised (ICU) Mortality Ratio (SMR), discrimination (AUROC), and calibration (C-statistic) were calculated, both by imputing missing measurements with normal values and by Multiple Imputation using Chained Equations (MICE). RESULTS: From a total of 995 patients admitted during the study period, 736 had APACHE II probabilities calculated. Data availability for APS calculation ranged from 70.6% to 88.4% for bedside observations and 18.7% to 63.4% for invasive measurements. SMR (95% CI) was 1.27 (1.17, 1.40) and 0.46 (0.44, 0.49), AUROC (95% CI) was 0.70 (0.65, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.68, 0.80), and C-statistic was 68.8 and 156.6 for normal value imputation and MICE, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An incomplete dataset confounds interpretation of prognostic model performance in LMICs, wherein imputation using normal values is not a suitable strategy. Improving data availability, researching imputation methods and developing setting-adapted and simpler prognostic models are warranted.