Improved survival in a cohort of trial participants with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer demonstrates the need for updated prognostic nomograms.

BACKGROUND: Median overall survival (OS) in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) was 13-16 mo in the predocetaxel era. Prognostic nomograms for survival estimation in CRPC were constructed prior to the introduction of docetaxel and other novel treatments. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether prognostic models still accurately reflect survival in a large cohort of trial participants. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Survival analysis of 442 men with CRPC sequentially treated in clinical trials at our institution from June 2003 to December 2011. OUTCOME MEASURES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Predicted survival by Halabi and Smaletz nomograms was compared to observed survival. Cox model multivariate analysis (MVA) used variables at referral, including performance status (PS); levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), haemoglobin (Hb), and albumin; presence of visceral disease, and metastatic disease at diagnosis. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: From point of referral, chemotherapy-naïve patients had a median OS of 30.6 mo (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6-36.5 mo). In contrast, predicted survival using the Halabi and Smaletz models was 21 and 18 mo, respectively. In these patients, poor PS, lower Hb level, and increasing LDH level were the strongest predictors in the MVA. In patients referred after chemotherapy, survival from referral was 17.5 mo (95% CI, 16.0-19.5 mo) and increasing LDH level and presence of visceral metastases were the strongest predictors of survival. Median OS from diagnosis of CRPC was 40.7 mo in the overall cohort (95% CI, 36.8-44.0 mo). Clinical trial participation was safe, with low mortality rate. This cohort of men participated in phase 1, 2 and 3 trials and expanded access programs; their data may not reflect survival in all CRPC patients. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the impact of highly effective novel therapies on survival, prognostic nomograms in current use require revalidation regarding their ability to predict survival in CRPC.

Selective inhibition of CYP17 with abiraterone acetate is highly active in the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: It has been postulated that castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) commonly remains hormone dependent. Abiraterone acetate is a potent, selective, and orally available inhibitor of CYP17, the key enzyme in androgen and estrogen biosynthesis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a phase I/II study of abiraterone acetate in castrate, chemotherapy-naive CRPC patients (n = 54) with phase II expansion at 1,000 mg (n = 42) using a two-stage design to reject the null hypothesis if more than seven patients had a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) decline of > or = 50% (null hypothesis = 0.1; alternative hypothesis = 0.3; alpha = .05; beta = .14). Computed tomography scans every 12 weeks and circulating tumor cell (CTC) enumeration were performed. Prospective reversal of resistance at progression by adding dexamethasone 0.5 mg/d to suppress adrenocorticotropic hormone and upstream steroids was pursued. RESULTS: A decline in PSA of > or = 50% was observed in 28 (67%) of 42 phase II patients, and declines of > or = 90% were observed in eight (19%) of 42 patients. Independent radiologic evaluation reported partial responses (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors) in nine (37.5%) of 24 phase II patients with measurable disease. Decreases in CTC counts were also documented. The median time to PSA progression (TTPP) on abiraterone acetate alone for all phase II patients was 225 days (95% CI, 162 to 287 days). Exploratory analyses were performed on all 54 phase I/II patients; the addition of dexamethasone at disease progression reversed resistance in 33% of patients regardless of prior treatment with dexamethasone, and pretreatment serum androgen and estradiol levels were associated with a probability of > or = 50% PSA decline and TTPP on abiraterone acetate and dexamethasone. CONCLUSION: CYP17 blockade by abiraterone acetate results in declines in PSA and CTC counts and radiologic responses, confirming that CRPC commonly remains hormone driven.