The economic impact of subclinical ketosis at the farm level: Tackling the challenge of over-estimation due to multiple interactions.

Subclinical ketosis (SCK) is a major metabolic disorder that affects dairy cows, and its lactational prevalence in Europe is estimated to be at 25%. Nonetheless, few data are available on the economics of SCK, although its management clearly must be improved. With this in mind, this study develops a double-step stochastic approach to evaluate the total cost of SCK to dairy farming. First, all the production and reproduction changes and all the health disorders associated with SCK were quantified using the meta-analysis from a previous study. Second, the total cost of SCK was determined with a stochastic model using distribution laws as input parameters. The mean total cost of SCK was estimated to be Є257 per calving cow with SCK (95% prediction interval (PI): Є72-442). The margin over feeding costs slightly influenced the results. When the parameters of the model are not modified to account for the conclusions from the meta-analysis and for the prevalence of health disorders in the population without SCK, the mean cost of SCK was overestimated by 68%, reaching Є434 per calving cow (95%PI: Є192-676). This result indicates that the total cost of complex health disorders is likely to be substantially overestimated when calculations use raw results from the literature or-even worse-punctual data. Excluding labour costs in the estimation reduced the SCK total cost by 12%, whereas excluding contributors with scarce data and imprecise calibrations (for lameness and udder health) reduced costs by another 18-20% (Є210, 95%PI=30-390). The proposed method accounted for uncertainty and variability in inputs by using distributions instead of point estimates. The mean value and associated prediction intervals (PIs) yielded good insight into the economic consequences of this complex disease and can be easily and practically used by decision makers in the field while simultaneously accounting for biological variability. Moreover, PIs can help prevent the blind use of economic results in the field when only the mean value is considered.

Diseases, reproductive performance, and changes in milk production associated with subclinical ketosis in dairy cows: a meta-analysis and review.

Many studies have shown that subclinical ketosis (SCK) is associated with an increased risk of developing various diseases, reproductive disorders, and changes in milk production. The present work aims at producing an overview between this disorder and theses outcomes. A meta-analysis of the literature, including 131 different models from 23 papers, or a review when the literature was scarce was conducted. For each outcome, the odds ratio (OR), relative risk, or hazard ratio was presented for various moderators to reduce heterogeneity among the studies. The raw change in milk production associated with SCK was estimated and adjusted, taking into consideration the outcomes known to interact with milk production during the peripartum period. The results showed that 2 main categories of moderators had a significant effect on the adjusted risk. First, the adjustment made by defining SCK as (1) ß-hydroxybutyrate concentration >1.4 mM, (2) nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentration >0.4 mM prepartum, or (3) NEFA concentration >1.0 mM postpartum corrected the underestimated risk (despite low significance). This is because several trials reported the relevant risks using lower thresholds for the ß-hydroxybutyrate or NEFA values. Using a low threshold leads to lower risk of disease compared with using a high threshold. Second, the correction produced using the polyfactorial terms corrected the overestimation of risk because many trials reported only univariable models. The relative risk or OR (95% confidence interval) related to abomasal displacement, clinical ketosis, early culling and death, metritis, placental retention, clinical mastitis, lameness, and a doubling of the SCC in cases with SCK were 3.33 (2.60-4.25), 5.38 (3.27-8.83), 1.92 (1.60-2.30), 1.75 (1.54-2.01), 1.52 (1.20-1.93), 1.61 (1.24-2.09), 2.01(1.64-2.44), and 1.42 (1.26-1.60), respectively. The precision level of the estimate depended on the outcome. The direct mean ± standard deviation of the 305-d milk losses associated with SCK were 251 ± 73 kg after adjusting for abomasal displacement, clinical ketosis, metritis, and placental retention. The OR (95% confidence interval) for first service calving risk in cases of SCK was 0.67 (0.53-0.83). The calving-to-first-service interval was 8 d longer and the calving-to-conception interval was 16 to 22 d longer in cows with SCK. The relationships among the different reproductive indicators were quantified in only 1 or 2 trials. The present work highlights the need to conduct further studies on the associations between SCK and the risks of diseases, changes in milk production, and reproductive parameters.

Factors influencing dairy calf and replacement heifer mortality in France.

Herd-level risk factors for dairy calf and heifer mortality in France were identified by calculating herd-level variables (including mortality risk or rate) using the National Bovine Identification Database (2005 and 2006). Eleven dairy production areas representing different livestock systems were also included. Statistical analyses were based on a probit model (mortality risk or rate=0 or >0) and a linear model (mortality risk or rate >0) corrected by the sample bias Heckman method. The same associations were reported for 2005 and 2006. The mortality risks or rates for calves and heifers were positively associated with the proportion of purchased cows or being a Milk Control Program member and negatively associated with adhering to the Good Breeding Practices charter and having an autumn calving peak. The associations between mortality and the breeds or the production areas were positive or negative, depending on the classes of animal. Mortality and having a beef herd in addition to the dairy herd were negatively associated for noncrossed birth to 2-d-old calves, noncrossed 3-d- to 1-mo-old calves, and 3-d- to 1-mo-old heifers. Having a beef herd probably provides specific know-how related to newborn and young calf management that makes it easier to attain low mortality in pure-breed dairy calves. The proportion of males born was positively associated with mortality for the birth to 2-d-old calves (all classes) and for the 3-d- to 1-mo-old beef-crossed calves, but negatively for all classes of heifers. This indicates that heifer management was improved when the availability of newborn heifers decreased, resulting in low mortality. This lower mortality is apparent for all classes of heifers present on the farm during the year when the proportion of males was low, and demonstrates an anticipatory effect. In conclusion, this study shows that the presence of a beef herd in addition to the dairy herd within a farm is associated with decreased dairy calf mortality. It also shows that heifer mortality decreases when the proportion of heifers born decreased. These determinants of dairy calf and heifer mortality are of great importance for farmer advisors, the dairy industry, and the political decision makers.