Heterogeneity in suicide risk: Evidence from personalized dynamic models.

Most theories of suicide propose within-person changes in psychological states cause suicidal thoughts/behaviors; however, most studies use between-person analyses. Thus, there are little empirical data exploring current theories in the way they are hypothesized to occur. We used a form of statistical modeling called group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) to explore one theory of suicide: The Interpersonal Theory of Suicide (IPTS). GIMME estimates personalized statistical models for each individual and associations shared across individuals. Data were from a real-time monitoring study of individuals with a history of suicidal thoughts/behavior (adult sample: participants = 111, observations = 25,242; adolescent sample: participants = 145, observations = 26,182). Across both samples, none of theorized IPTS effects (i.e., contemporaneous effect from hopeless to suicidal thinking) were shared at the group level. There was significant heterogeneity in the personalized models, suggesting there are different pathways through which different people come to experience suicidal thoughts/behaviors. These findings highlight the complexity of suicide risk and the need for more personalized approaches to assessment and prediction.

Latent Profile Analysis of Urges for Suicidal and Self-Harming Behavior: The Role of Social Support Instability.

College counseling centers are seeing increasing rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) among students. The high degree of need and limited resources underscores the need for novel approaches to identify at-risk students. We used latent profile analysis (LPA) to identify subgroups of students (n = 371) with different patterns of interpersonal factors and examine whether these subgroups differed by risk for self-injurious thoughts and behaviors. The best-fitting LPA had three profiles, which differed in urges to die by suicide and engage in NSSI. The profile with low average social support and higher instability (greater day-to-day fluctuations of self-reported social support and rejection) was associated with greatest risk, suggesting that this combination leaves individuals more vulnerable to suicide and NSSI.

Real-time digital monitoring of a suicide attempt by a hospital patient.

Suicide is among the most devastating problems facing clinicians, who currently have limited tools to predict and prevent suicidal behavior. Here we report on real-time, continuous smartphone and sensor data collected before, during, and after a suicide attempt made by a patient during a psychiatric inpatient hospitalization. We observed elevated and persistent sympathetic nervous system arousal and suicidal thinking leading up to the suicide attempt. This case provides the highest resolution data to date on the psychological, psychophysiological, and behavioral markers of imminent suicidal behavior and highlights new directions for prediction and prevention efforts.

Can passive measurement of physiological distress help better predict suicidal thinking?

There has been growing interest in using wearable physiological monitors to passively detect the signals of distress (i.e., increases in autonomic arousal measured through increased electrodermal activity [EDA]) that may be imminently associated with suicidal thoughts. Before using these monitors in advanced applications such as creating suicide risk detection algorithms or just-in-time interventions, several preliminary questions must be answered. Specifically, we lack information about whether: (1) EDA concurrently and prospectively predicts suicidal thinking and (2) data on EDA adds to the ability to predict the presence and severity of suicidal thinking over and above self-reports of emotional distress. Participants were suicidal psychiatric inpatients (n = 25, 56% female, M age = 33.48 years) who completed six daily assessments of negative affect and suicidal thinking duration of their psychiatric inpatient stay and 28 days post-discharge, and wore on their wrist a physiological monitor (Empatica Embrace) that passively detects autonomic activity. We found that physiological data alone both concurrently and prospectively predicted periods of suicidal thinking, but models with physiological data alone had the poorest fit. Adding physiological data to self-report models improved fit when the outcome variable was severity of suicidal thinking, but worsened model fit when the outcome was presence of suicidal thinking. When predicting severity of suicidal thinking, physiological data improved model fit more for models with non-overlapping self-report data (i.e., low arousal negative affect) than for overlapping self-report data (i.e., high arousal negative affect). These findings suggest that physiological data, under certain contexts (e.g., when combined with self-report data), may be useful in better predicting-and ultimately, preventing-acute increases in suicide risk. However, some cautious optimism is warranted since physiological data do not always improve our ability to predict suicidal thinking.

Practices for monitoring and responding to incoming data on self-injurious thoughts and behaviors in intensive longitudinal studies: A systematic review.

Advancements in the understanding and prevention of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) are urgently needed. Intensive longitudinal data collection methods-such as ecological momentary assessment-capture fine-grained, "real-world" information about SITBs as they occur and thus have the potential to narrow this gap. However, collecting real-time data on SITBs presents complex ethical and practical considerations, including about whether and how to monitor and respond to incoming information about SITBs from suicidal or self-injuring individuals during the study. We conducted a systematic review of protocols for monitoring and responding to incoming data in previous and ongoing intensive longitudinal studies of SITBs. Across the 61 included unique studies/samples, there was no clear most common approach to managing these ethical and safety considerations. For example, studies were fairly evenly split between either using automated notifications triggered by specific survey responses (e.g., indicating current suicide risk) or monitoring and intervening upon (generally with a phone-based risk assessment) incoming responses (36%), using both automated notifications and monitoring/intervening (35%), or neither using automated notifications nor monitoring/intervening (29%). Certain study characteristics appeared to influence the safety practices used. Future research that systematically evaluates optimal, feasible strategies for managing risk in real-time monitoring research on SITBs is needed.