Dynamical analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating optimal vaccination and treatment with cost-effectiveness.

The ongoing monkeypox outbreak that began in the UK has currently spread to every continent. Here, we use ordinary differential equations to build a nine-compartmental mathematical model to examine the dynamics of monkeypox transmission. The basic reproduction number for both humans ( R 0 h) and animals ( R 0 a) is obtained using the next-generation matrix technique. Depending on the values of R 0 h and R 0 a, we discovered that there are three equilibria. The current study also looks at the stability of all equilibria. We discovered that the model experiences transcritical bifurcation at R 0 a = 1 for any value of R 0 h and at R 0 h = 1 for R 0 a < 1. This is the first study that, to the best of our knowledge, has constructed and solved an optimal monkeypox control strategy while taking vaccination and treatment controls into consideration. The infected averted ratio and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were calculated to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of all viable control methods. Using the sensitivity index technique, the parameters used in the formulation of R 0 h and R 0 a are scaled.

An ANFIS model-based approach to investigate the effect of lockdown due to COVID-19 on public health.

During the first and second quarters of the year 2020, most of the countries had implemented complete or partial lockdown policies to slow down the transmission of the COVID-19. To cultivate the effect of lockdown due to COVID-19 on public health, we have collected the data of six primary parameters, namely systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, insomnia, cholesterol, and respiratory distress of 200 randomly chosen people from a municipality region of West Bengal, India before and after lockdown. With the help of these data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), we have formulated a model that has established that lockdown due to COVID-19 has negligible impacts on the individuals with better health condition but has significant effects on the health conditions to those populations who have poor health.

Complex dynamics of a fractional-order SIR system in the context of COVID-19.

This paper proposes and analyses a new fractional-order SIR type epidemic model with a saturated treatment function. The detailed dynamics of the corresponding system, including the equilibrium points and their existence and uniqueness, uniform-boundedness, and stability of the solutions are studied. The threshold parameter, basic reproduction number of the system which determines the disease dynamics is derived, and the condition of occurrence of backward bifurcation is also determined. Some numerical works are conducted to validate our analytical results for the commensurate fractional-order system. Hopf bifurcations for the fractional-order system are studied by taking the order of the fractional differential as a bifurcation parameter.