Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986. FINDINGS: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15-19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (-42·8 [-59·1 to -26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (-41·97 [-60·6 to -23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. TRANSLATIONS: For the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Ecological and subject-level drivers of interepidemic Rift Valley fever virus exposure in humans and livestock in Northern Kenya.

Nearly a century after the first reports of Rift Valley fever (RVF) were documented in Kenya, questions on the transmission dynamics of the disease remain. Specifically, data on viral maintenance in the quiescent years between epidemics is limited. We implemented a cross-sectional study in northern Kenya to determine the seroprevalence, risk factors, and ecological predictors of RVF in humans and livestock during an interepidemic period. Six hundred seventy-six human and 1,864 livestock samples were screened for anti-RVF Immunoglobulin G (IgG). Out of the 1,864 livestock samples tested for IgG, a subset of 1,103 samples was randomly selected for additional testing to detect the presence of anti-RVFV Immunoglobulin M (IgM). The anti-RVF virus (RVFV) IgG seropositivity in livestock and humans was 21.7% and 28.4%, respectively. RVFV IgM was detected in 0.4% of the livestock samples. Participation in the slaughter of livestock and age were positively associated with RVFV exposure in humans, while age was a significant factor in livestock. We detected significant interaction between rainfall and elevation's influence on livestock seropositivity, while in humans, elevation was negatively associated with RVF virus exposure. The linear increase of human and livestock exposure with age suggests an endemic transmission cycle, further corroborated by the detection of IgM antibodies in livestock.

The impact of livestock interventions on nutritional outcomes of children younger than 5 years old and women in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions have the potential to improve the nutrition of communities that are dependent on livestock for their livelihoods by increasing the availability and access to animal-source foods. These interventions can also boost household income, improving purchasing power for other foods, as well as enhance determinants of health. However, there is a lack of synthesized empirical evidence of the impact and effect of livestock interventions on diets and human nutritional status in Africa. Objective: To review evidence of the effectiveness of nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions in improving diets and nutritional status in children younger than 5 years old and in pregnant and lactating women. Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies reporting on the effect of livestock interventions on maternal and child nutrition in Africa. Data were extracted, synthesized, and summarized qualitatively. Key outcomes were presented in summary tables alongside a narrative summary. Estimation of pooled effects was undertaken for experimental studies with nutritional outcomes of consumption of animal-source foods (ASFs) and minimum dietary diversity (MDD). Fixed effects regression models and pooled effect sizes were computed and reported as odds ratios (ORs) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: After the screening, 29 research papers were included in the review, and of these, only 4 were included in the meta-analysis. We found that nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions have a significant positive impact on the consumption of ASFs for children < 5 years (OR = 5.39; 95% CI: 4.43-6.56) and on the likelihood of meeting minimum dietary diversity (OR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.51-2.37). Additionally, the impact of livestock interventions on stunting, wasting, and being underweight varied depending on the type of intervention and duration of the program/intervention implementation. Therefore, because of this heterogeneity in reporting metrics, the pooled estimates could not be computed. Conclusion: Nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions showed a positive effect in increasing the consumption of ASFs, leading to improved dietary diversity. However, the quality of the evidence is low, and therefore, more randomized controlled studies with consistent and similar reporting metrics are needed to increase the evidence base on how nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions affect child growth outcomes.

Sero - epidemiology of brucellosis in people and their livestock: A linked human - animal cross-sectional study in a pastoralist community in Kenya.

Background: Brucellosis is associated with massive livestock production losses and human morbidity worldwide. Efforts to control brucellosis among pastoralist communities are limited by scarce data on the prevalence and risk factors for exposure despite the high human-animal interactions in these communities. This study simultaneously assessed the seroprevalence of brucellosis and associated factors of exposure among pastoralists and their livestock in same households. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in pastoralist communities in Marsabit County - Kenya. A total of 1,074 women and 225 children participated and provided blood samples. Blood was also drawn from 1,876 goats, 322 sheep and 189 camels. Blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG antibodies using indirect IgG Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) kits. Further, Individual, household and herd-level epidemiological information were captured using a structured questionnaire. Group differences were compared using the Pearson's Chi-square test, and p-values < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Generalized mixed-effects multivariable logistic human and animal models using administrative ward as the random effect was used to determine variables correlated to the outcome. Results: Household-level seropositivity was 12.7% (95% CI: 10.7-14.8). The individual human seroprevalence was 10.8% (9.1-12.6) with higher seroprevalence among women than children (12.4 vs. 3.1%, p < 0.001). Herd-level seroprevalence was 26.1% (23.7-28.7) and 19.2% (17.6-20.8) among individual animals. Goats had the highest seroprevalence 23.1% (21.2 - 25.1), followed by sheep 6.8% (4.3-10.2) and camels 1.1% (0.1-3.8). Goats and sheep had a higher risk of exposure OR = 3.8 (95% CI 2.4-6.7, p < 0.001) and 2.8 (1.2-5.6, p < 0.007), respectively relative to camels. Human and animal seroprevalence were significantly associated (OR = 1.8, [95%CI: 1.23-2.58], p = 0.002). Herd seroprevalence varied by household head education (OR = 2.45, [1.67-3.61, p < 0.001]) and herd size (1.01, [1.00-1.01], p < 0.001). Conclusions: The current study showed evidence that brucellosis is endemic in this pastoralist setting and there is a significant association between animal and human brucellosis seropositivity at household level representing a potential occupational risk. Public health sensitization and sustained human and animal brucellosis screening are required.

Endemicity of Coxiella burnetii infection among people and their livestock in pastoral communities in northern Kenya.

Background: Coxiella burnetti can be transmitted to humans primarily through inhaling contaminated droplets released from infected animals or consumption of contaminated dairy products. Despite its zoonotic nature and the close association pastoralist communities have with their livestock, studies reporting simultaneous assessment of C. burnetti exposure and risk-factors among people and their livestock are scarce. Objective: This study therefore estimated the seroprevalence of Q-fever and associated risk factors of exposure in people and their livestock. Materials and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in pastoralist communities in Marsabit County in northern Kenya. A total of 1,074 women and 225 children were enrolled and provided blood samples for Q-fever testing. Additionally, 1,876 goats, 322 sheep and 189 camels from the same households were sampled. A structured questionnaire was administered to collect individual- and household/herd-level data. Indirect IgG ELISA kits were used to test the samples. Results: Household-level seropositivity was 13.2% [95% CI: 11.2-15.3]; differences in seropositivity levels among women and children were statistically insignificant (p = 0.8531). Lactating women had higher odds of exposure, odds ratio (OR) = 2.4 [1.3-5.3], while the odds of exposure among children increased with age OR = 1.1 [1.0-1.1]. Herd-level seroprevalence was 83.7% [81.7-85.6]. Seropositivity among goats was 74.7% [72.7-76.7], while that among sheep and camels was 56.8% [51.2-62.3] and 38.6% [31.6-45.9], respectively. Goats and sheep had a higher risk of exposure OR = 5.4 [3.7-7.3] and 2.6 [1.8-3.4], respectively relative to camels. There was no statistically significant association between Q-fever seropositivity and nutrition status in women, p = 0.900 and children, p = 1.000. We found no significant association between exposure in people and their livestock at household level (p = 0.724) despite high animal exposure levels, suggesting that Q-fever exposure in humans may be occurring at a scale larger than households. Conclusion: The one health approach used in this study revealed that Q-fever is endemic in this setting. Longitudinal studies of Q-fever burden and risk factors simultaneously assessed in human and animal populations as well as the socioeconomic impacts of the disease and further explore the role of environmental factors in Q-fever epidemiology are required. Such evidence may form the basis for designing Q-fever prevention and control strategies.

Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.

Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.