Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress.

During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water resources, food production, and ecosystem vulnerability. Here, we combine systematic satellite observations of the diurnal amplitude of land surface temperature (dLST) and SM during dry-downs, corroborated by in-situ data from flux towers, to generate the observation-based global map of θcrit. We find an average global θcrit of 0.19 m3/m3, varying from 0.12 m3/m3 in arid ecosystems to 0.26 m3/m3 in humid ecosystems. θcrit simulated by Earth System Models is overestimated in dry areas and underestimated in wet areas. The global observed pattern of θcrit reflects plant adaptation to soil available water and atmospheric demand. Using explainable machine learning, we show that aridity index, leaf area and soil texture are the most influential drivers. Moreover, we show that the annual fraction of days with water stress, when SM stays below θcrit, has increased in the past four decades. Our results have important implications for understanding the inception of water stress in models and identifying SM tipping points.

Risk assessment of Retithrips syriacus for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Retithrips syriacus (Mayet) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), a polyphagous thrips, regarded as a tropical/subtropical pest occurring in several countries of Africa, South America, Asia and in the EU in Cyprus. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of cut roses, persimmons, table grapes, as well as plants for planting of the genera Acalypha and Terminalia from third countries and those of Persea americana (avocado) from Israel as the most relevant entry pathways to consider. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of 95 (90% Certainty Range, CR, ranging from 13 to 1832) potential R. syriacus founder populations per year are expected to successfully transfer to a suitable host in the EU NUTS2 regions where the climatic conditions are predicted as suitable for establishment; this value drops to a median of 4.6 founder populations per year (90% CR: 1 every 1.9 years - 85.6 per year) after considering the actual probability of establishment of a potential founder population. The estimated number of founder population per year is mostly driven by the import of cut roses and plants for planting. If such founder populations were to establish, R. syriacus is estimated to spread at a median rate of 0.05 km/year (90% CR 0.02-2.30 km/year) after a median lag phase of 1.1 years (90% CR 0.3-3.3 years). The overall impact on yield (expressed as % of the total agricultural production) directly attributable to R. syriacus when considering: (i) the main R. syriacus hosts in the EU, (ii) the areas of the EU where establishment is possible, (iii) the current agricultural practices and (iv) the evidence of impact from the countries where the pest is established for a long time, was estimated at 0.065% as the median value of the uncertainty distribution (90% CR 0.001%-0.571%). Options for risk reduction are discussed, but the effectiveness was not quantified.

Drivers of natural gas use in U.S. residential buildings.

Natural gas is the primary fuel used in U.S. residences, yet little is known about its consumption patterns and drivers. We use daily county-level gas consumption data to assess the spatial patterns of the relationships and the sensitivities of gas consumption to outdoor air temperature across U.S. households. We fitted linear-plus-plateau functions to daily gas consumption data in 1000 counties, and derived two key coefficients: the heating temperature threshold (Tcrit) and the gas consumption rate change per 1°C temperature drop (Slope). We identified the main predictors of Tcrit and Slope (like income, employment rate, and building type) using interpretable machine learning models built on census data. Finally, we estimated a potential 2.47 million MtCO2 annual emission reduction in U.S. residences by gas savings due to household insulation improvements and hypothetical behavioral change toward reduced consumption by adopting a 1°C lower Tcrit than the current value.

A dataset for analyzing the climate change response of grain quality of 48 Japanese rice cultivars with contrasting levels of heat tolerance.

Climate change has a significant impact on rice grain appearance quality; in particular, high temperatures during the grain filling period increase the rate of chalky immature grains, reducing the marketability of rice. Heat-tolerant cultivars have been bred and released to reduce the rate of chalky grain and improve rice quality under high temperatures, but the ability of these cultivars to actually reduce chalky grain content has never been demonstrated due to the lack of integrated datasets. Here, we present a dataset collected through a systematic literature search from publicly available data sources, for the quantitative analysis of the impact of meteorological factors on grain appearance quality of various rice cultivars with contrasted heat tolerance levels. The dataset contains 1302 field observations of chalky grain rates (%) - a critical trait affecting grain appearance sensitive to temperature shocks - for 48 cultivars covering five different heat-tolerant ranks (HTRs) collected at 44 sites across Japan. The dataset also includes the values of key meteorological variables during the grain filling period, such as the cumulative mean air temperature above the threshold temperature (TaHD), mean solar radiation, and mean relative humidity over 20 days after heading, obtained from a gridded daily meteorological dataset with a 1-km resolution developed by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization. The dataset covers major commercial rice cultivars cultivated in Japan in different environmental conditions. It is a useful resource for analyzing the climate change impact on crop quality and assess the effectiveness of genetic improvements in heat tolerance. Its value has been illustrated in the research article entitled "Effectiveness of heat tolerance rice cultivars in preserving grain appearance quality under high temperatures - A meta-analysis", where the dataset was used to develop a statistical model quantifying the effects of high temperature on grain quality as a function of cultivar heat tolerance.

Mitigating nitrogen losses with almost no crop yield penalty during extremely wet years.

Climate change-induced precipitation anomalies during extremely wet years (EWYs) result in substantial nitrogen losses to aquatic ecosystems (Nw). Still, the extent and drivers of these losses, and effective mitigation strategies have remained unclear. By integrating global datasets with well-established crop modeling and machine learning techniques, we reveal notable increases in Nw, ranging from 22 to 56%, during historical EWYs. These pulses are projected to amplify under the SSP126 (SSP370) scenario to 29 to 80% (61 to 120%) due to the projected increases in EWYs and higher nitrogen input. We identify the relative precipitation difference between two consecutive years (diffPr) as the primary driver of extreme Nw. This finding forms the basis of the CLimate Extreme Adaptive Nitrogen Strategy (CLEANS), which scales down nitrogen input adaptively to diffPr, leading to a substantial reduction in extreme Nw with nearly zero yield penalty. Our results have important implications for global environmental sustainability and while safeguarding food security.

Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation.

Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of 'steady growth' in actual and attainable yields, 'stalled floor' where yield is stagnated and 'ceiling pressure' where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing 'steady growth', in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing 'ceiling pressure'. We show that 'ceiling pressure' correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.

Knowledge coproduction to improve assessments of nature's contributions to people.

Sustainability science needs new approaches to produce, share, and use knowledge because there are major barriers to translating research into policy and practice. Multiple actors hold relevant knowledge for sustainability including indigenous and local people who have developed over generations knowledge, methods, and practices that biodiversity and ecosystem assessments need to capture. Despite efforts to mainstream knowledge coproduction, less than 3% of the literature on nature's contributions to people (NCP) integrates indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). Approaches and tools to better integrate scientific and ILK knowledge systems in NCP assessments are urgently needed. To fill this gap, we conducted interviews with ILK experts from Abancay and Tamburco, Peru, and convened focus groups and workshops during which participatory mapping, a serious game, a Bayesian belief network based on ILK were introduced. We inventoried 60 medicinal plants used to treat different illnesses, and analyzed the spatial distribution of the 7 plants that contribute the most to a good quality of life, and delineated their nonmedicinal uses. Based on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services conceptual framework, we defined dimensions of a good quality of life according to indigenous and local worldviews. Medicinal plants contributed strongly to health and household security, among other contributions. Climate change and overexploitation were the main perceived threats to medicinal plants, despite the existence of formal and customary institutions to regulate trade. Our approach was flexible enough to integrate diverse forms of knowledge, as well as qualitative and quantitative information from, for example, the Bayesian belief network.

Coproducción de conocimiento para mejorar la evaluación de las contribuciones de la naturaleza para las personas Resumen La ciencia de la sostenibilidad necesita nuevos enfoques para producir, compartir y utilizar los conocimientos, ya que existen grandes obstáculos para trasladar la investigación a la política y la práctica. Varios actores poseen conocimientos relevantes para la sostenibilidad, incluidos los pueblos originarios y locales que han desarrollado conocimientos, métodos y prácticas a lo largo de generaciones, que deben reflejarse en las evaluaciones de la biodiversidad y los ecosistemas. A pesar de los esfuerzos por integrar la coproducción de conocimientos, <3% de la bibliografía sobre las contribuciones de la naturaleza a las personas (CNP) integra los conocimientos autóctonos y locales (CAL). Se necesitan urgentemente enfoques y herramientas para integrar mejor los sistemas de conocimiento científico y los conocimientos autóctonos y locales en las evaluaciones de los CNP. Para llenar este vacío, realizamos entrevistas con expertos en CAL de Abancay y Tamburco, Perú, y convocamos grupos focales y talleres durante los cuales se introdujeron el mapeo participativo, un juego serio y una red de creencia bayesiana basada en CAL. Inventariamos 60 plantas medicinales utilizadas para tratar diferentes enfermedades y analizamos la distribución espacial de las siete especies de plantas que más contribuyen a una buena calidad de vida y delineamos sus usos no medicinales. A partir del marco conceptual de la Plataforma Intergubernamental Científico-Normativa sobre Diversidad Biológica y Servicios de los Ecosistemas, definimos las dimensiones de una buena calidad de vida según las cosmovisiones autóctonas y locales. Las plantas medicinales contribuían en gran medida a la salud y a la seguridad de los hogares, entre otras aportaciones. El cambio climático y la sobreexplotación fueron las principales amenazas percibidas para las plantas medicinales a pesar de la existencia de instituciones tradicionales que regulan el mercado. Nuestra estrategia fue lo suficientemente flexible para integrar el conocimiento diverso, así como la información cualitativa y cuantitativa, como por ejemplo la red de creencia bayesiana.

An experimental dataset on yields of pulses across Europe.

Future European agriculture should achieve high productivity while limiting its impact on the environment. Legume-supported crop rotations could contribute to these goals, as they request less nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs, show high resource use efficiency and support biodiversity. However, legumes grown for their grain (pulses) are not widely cultivated in Europe. To further expand their cultivation, it remains crucial to better understand how different cropping and environmental features affect pulses production in Europe. To address this gap, we collected the grain yields of the most cultivated legumes across European countries, from both published scientific papers and unpublished experiments of the European projects LegValue and Legato. Data were integrated into an open-source, easily updatable dataset, including 5229 yield observations for five major pulses: chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), faba bean (Vicia faba L.), field pea (Pisum sativum L.), lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.), and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). These data were collected in 177 field experiments across 21 countries, from 37° N (southern Italy) to 63° N (Finland) of latitude, and from ca. 8° W (western Spain) to 47° E (Turkey), between 1980 and 2020. Our dataset can be used to quantify the effects of the soil, climate, and agronomic factors affecting pulses yields in Europe and could contribute to identifying the most suitable cropping areas in Europe to grow pulses.

Risk assessment of Resseliella citrifrugis for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of the citrus fruit midge Resseliella citrifrugis (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), an oligophagous species, which feeds on fruits of Citrus spp., and is reported from China. The pest was temporarily regulated in October 2022 (Regulation (EU) 2022/1941, under Art. 30 (2016/2031)). The entry risk assessment focused on the citrus fruit pathway. Three scenarios were considered: A0 (current practice, i.e. regulated pest for the EU), A1 (deregulation) and A2 (A0 with additional stand-alone post-harvest cold treatment). Based on the outputs of the entry model, under scenario A0, slightly less than 40 potential founder populations per year are expected (median; 90%-uncertainty interval between about one per 30 years and about 3,000 per year). Under scenario A1, the risk of entry increases by about three times and reaches about 120 potential founder populations per year (median; 90%-uncertainty interval between about one per 10 years and about 9,000 per year). Compared to scenario A0, the risk of entry is orders of magnitude lower for scenario A2 (median = about one potential founder population per 120 years; 90%-uncertainty interval between one per about 600 million years and about two per year). The main uncertainties in the entry assessment are the probability of transfer, the RRO effectiveness (for scenario A2) and the disaggregation of consignments (transport of citrus fruit in boxes or lots to different locations). For all scenarios, the number of established populations is only slightly lower than the number of potential founder populations. Establishment is thus not expected to be a major constraint for this pest to then spread and cause impacts, despite the uncertainty about the pest thermal requirements. The median lag period between establishment and spread is estimated to be about 18 months (90%-uncertainty interval between about 7 and 54 months). After the lag period, the median rate of spread by flying and due to transport of harvested citrus fruit from orchards to packinghouses is estimated at about 100 km/year (90%-range between about 40 and 500 km/year). The main uncertainties in the spread assessment include the level of susceptibility of cultivars of different citrus species in the EU, the spread rate in China and the climate suitability of the initial spread focus in the EU. The median impact of R. citrifrugis in the EU citrus-growing area (proportion of infested citrus fruit out of harvested citrus fruit) is estimated at about 10% (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2% and 25%). Uncertainties affecting the impact assessment include the susceptibility of different citrus cultivars and the effect of the citrus fruit-harvesting season in the EU (mainly winter, the less suitable season for the pest).

Risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the citrus pulp borer, an oligophagous pest reported from South-East Asia and restricted to Citrus spp. The entry risk assessment focused on the citrus fruit pathway. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional post-harvest cold treatment). Based on the outputs of the entry model obtained in scenario A0, the median number of founder populations in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated to be slightly less than 10 per year (90%-uncertainty interval between about one entry per 180 years and 1,300 entries per year). The risk of entry and the simulated numbers of founder populations are orders of magnitude lower for scenario A2 compared to scenario A0. The key uncertainties in the entry model include transfer, the cold treatment effectiveness, the disaggregation factor and sorting. The simulated numbers of established populations are only slightly lower than the numbers of founder populations. As the probability of establishment has little impact on the number of established populations, it is not a major source of uncertainty, despite the lack of data on the thermal biology of the pest. The median lag period between establishment and spread is estimated to be slightly more than 1 year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2 months and 33 months). After the lag period, the median spread rate by natural means (flying) and due to transport of harvested citrus fruit from orchards to packinghouses is estimated at about 100 km/year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 40 and 500 km/year). The main sources of uncertainties affecting the spread rate include the extent to which environmental factors could hamper the build-up of the populations and the lack of data on the spread rate at the origin. The median impact of C. sagittiferella in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated at about 10% of infested fruits among the harvested citrus fruits (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2% and 25%). Uncertainties affecting the impact assessment include the susceptibility of different Citrus species and cultivars.

The productive performance of intercropping.

Crop diversification has been put forward as a way to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture without penalizing its productivity. In this context, intercropping, the planned combination of two or more crop species in one field, is a promising practice. On an average, intercropping saves land compared with the component sole crops, but it remains unclear whether intercropping produces a higher yield than the most productive single crop per unit area, i.e., whether intercropping achieves transgressive overyielding. Here, we quantified the performance of intercropping for the production of grain, calories, and protein in a global meta-analysis of several production indices. The results show that intercrops outperform sole crops when the objective is to achieve a diversity of crop products on a given land area. However, when intercropping is evaluated for its ability to produce raw products without concern for diversity, intercrops on average generate a small loss in grain or calorie yield compared with the most productive sole crop (-4%) but achieve similar or higher protein yield, especially with maize/legume combinations grown at moderate N supply. Overall, although intercropping does not achieve transgressive overyielding on average, our results show that intercropping performs well in producing a diverse set of crop products and performs almost similar to the most productive component sole crop to produce raw products, while improving crop resilience, enhancing ecosystem services, and improving nutrient use efficiency. Our study, therefore, confirms the great interest of intercropping for the development of a more sustainable agricultural production, supporting diversified diets.

Risk assessment of Xanthomonas citri pv. viticola for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Xanthomonas citri pv. viticola (Xcv). This pest causes bacterial canker of grapevine and is reported from Brazil and India. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional control measures). For the fresh grape import pathway, scenario A0 results in an order of magnitude of about one entry per 10 years (median; 90% uncertainty interval between ca. one entry per 18,000 years and ca. five entries per year). For the Vitis spp. plants for planting for research/breeding purposes import pathway, the risk of entry is several orders of magnitude smaller than the risk due to fresh grape import. This outcome is also obtained under scenario A2. The key entry uncertainties include import volume and transfer (for plants for planting), transfer and the disaggregation factor (for fresh grapes) and the limited availability of epidemiological data. The extent of the area favourable for Xcv establishment in the EU is uncertain, illustrating the limitations of climate suitability assessments when based on few data points and little epidemiological information. Nevertheless, the risk of Xcv establishment is only slightly lower than the risk of Xcv entry, i.e. no major establishment constraints are expected for most entries. Similarly, the risk of Xcv establishment is assessed as only slightly lower under current climate compared to the climate of 2041-2060. For grapevine growing areas in the EU with average yearly temperature above 17°C, the lag phase between establishment and spread is expected to be about 3 years (median; 90% range between ca. 6 months and ca. 6 years). Under the same scenario, the rate of spread by natural means is assessed to be ca. 300 m/year (median; 90% range between ca. 35 and ca. 800 m/year). The spread rate would be considerably higher considering movements of plants and cutting tools or machinery. The percentage of grapevine plants infected by Xcv in production sites as yearly average over a 30-year production cycle is estimated to be ca. 17% (median; 90% range between ca. 1.5% and ca. 46%) in table grapes and ca. 12% (median; 90% range between ca. 0.7% and ca. 37%) in wine grapes. Impacts have been reported to be severe in Brazil and India, but the estimates provided here show that there is considerable uncertainty about expected impacts in the EU.

Critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress in terrestrial ecosystems.

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θcrit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EFmax), θcrit, and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θcrit, S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θcrit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θcrit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella for the European Union.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on pathways of introduction, climatic conditions and cultivation of hosts allowing establishment, spread and impact. A. transitella is a common pest of almonds, pistachios and walnuts in California, which is the main source for these nuts imported into the EU. Based on size of the trade and infestation at origin, importation of walnuts and almonds from the USA was identified as the most important pathways for entry of A. transitella. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, a median estimate of 2,630 infested nuts is expected to enter the EU each year over the next 5 years (90% certainty range (CR) from 338 to 26,000 infested nuts per year). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of transfer to a host, mating upon transfer and survival of founder populations, the number of populations that establish was estimated to be 0.000698 year-1 (median, 90% CR: 0.0000126-0.0364 year-1). Accordingly, the expected period between founding events is 1,430 years (median, 90% CR: 27.5-79,400 year). The likelihood of entry resulting in establishment is therefore considered very small. However, this estimate has high uncertainty, mainly concerning the processes of transfer of the insect to hosts and the establishment of founder populations by those that successfully transfer. Climate matching and CLIMEX modelling indicate that conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. The median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 5.6 km/year (median, 90% CR 0.8-19.3 km/year), after an initial lag period of 3.1 year (mean, 90% CR 1.7-6.2 year) following the establishment of a founder population. If A. transitella did establish, estimated median yield losses in nuts were estimated to be in the order of 1-2% depending on the nut species and production system. A scenario requiring imports of nuts to be transported under chilled conditions was shown to provide potential to further reduce the likelihood of entry.

Changes in soil carbon mineralization related to earthworm activity depend on the time since inoculation and their density in soil.

Earthworms play a key role in soil carbon mineralization, but their effect is highly uncertain and suspected to vary as a function of several factors, particularly the earthworm density and time from earthworm inoculation. We conducted a meta-analysis considering these factors based on 42 experiments comparing carbon mineralization in the absence and presence of earthworms at different times. The results reveal an average carbon mineralization increase of 24% (sd 41%) in the presence of earthworms with an initial median earthworm density of 1.95 mg/g soil DM (Dry Mass) (sd 48%). We show that carbon mineralization due to earthworms was related to their density and time from inoculation. From a simple regression model using these two variables, the estimated impact of earthworms on carbon mineralization was 20% increase from 0 to 60 days and 14% decrease at day 350 for a density of worms commonly found in soils (0.5 mg/g soil DM). Finally, we proposed a simple equation that could be used in organic matter decomposition models that do not take macrofauna into account.

Research priorities for global food security under extreme events.

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

A global dataset to parametrize critical nitrogen dilution curves for major crop species.

Precise management of crop nitrogen nutrition is essential to maximize yields while limiting pollution risks. For several decades, the critical nitrogen (N) dilution curve - relating plant biomass (W) to N concentration (%N) - has become a key tool for diagnosing plant nutritional status. Increasing number of studies are being conducted to parameterize critical N dilution curves of a wide range of crop species in different environments and N-fertilized conditions. A global synthesis of the resulting data is lacking on this topic. Here, we conduct a systematic review of the experimental data collected worldwide to parametrize critical N dilution curves. The dataset consists of 36 papers containing a total of 4454 observations for 19 major crop species distributed in 16 countries. The key variables of this dataset are the W and %N collected at three or more sampling times, containing three or more fertilizer N rate levels. This dataset can guide the development of generic critical N dilution curves, helps scientists to identify factors influencing plant N status, and leads to the formulation of more robust N recommendations for a broad range of environmental conditions.

Climatic and biotic factors influencing regional declines and recovery of tropical forest biomass from the 2015/16 El Niño.

The 2015/16 El Niño brought severe drought and record-breaking temperatures in the tropics. Here, using satellite-based L-band microwave vegetation optical depth, we mapped changes of above-ground biomass (AGB) during the drought and in subsequent years up to 2019. Over more than 60% of drought-affected intact forests, AGB reduced during the drought, except in the wettest part of the central Amazon, where it declined 1 y later. By the end of 2019, only 40% of AGB reduced intact forests had fully recovered to the predrought level. Using random-forest models, we found that the magnitude of AGB losses during the drought was mainly associated with regionally distinct patterns of soil water deficits and soil clay content. For the AGB recovery, we found strong influences of AGB losses during the drought and of [Formula: see text]. [Formula: see text] is a parameter related to canopy structure and is defined as the ratio of two relative height (RH) metrics of Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) waveform data-RH25 (25% energy return height) and RH100 (100% energy return height; i.e., top canopy height). A high [Formula: see text] may reflect forests with a tall understory, thick and closed canopy, and/or without degradation. Such forests with a high [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] ≥ 0.3) appear to have a stronger capacity to recover than low-[Formula: see text] ones. Our results highlight the importance of forest structure when predicting the consequences of future drought stress in the tropics.

Probabilistic determination of a maximum acceptable level of contaminant to reduce the risk of overexposure for a novel or emerging food: the case of cadmium in edible seaweed in the French population.

European and French populations are overexposed to cadmium (Cd) through their foods. The risk of increased cadmium exposure for consumers needs to be limited by reduced maximum limits (ML) for novel foodstuffs such as edible seaweed in France. The objective was to derive a low and protective cadmium concentration in edible seaweeds to limit cadmium overexposure in consumers. To do so, we applied a probabilistic approach to the data collected on French seaweed consumers, taking into account other sources of exposure for cadmium. This approach led to the identification of a cadmium concentration which should ensure that the seaweed-consuming population does not exceed the tolerable daily intake (TDI) of cadmium according to a probability of cases, when simultaneously exposed to other cadmium dietary sources. Considering the 5% of the population exceeding TDI, the estimated ML is equal to 0.35 mg Cd kg-1 dry matter of seaweed as an unprocessed food with a 95% confidence interval of [0.18,1.09]. The proposed approach is generic and could be applied to other relevant food/substance pairs when considering the setting of MLs in the regulatory system. It ensures better protection of consumer health.

Surface temperatures reveal the patterns of vegetation water stress and their environmental drivers across the tropical Americas.

Vegetation is a key component in the global carbon cycle as it stores ~450 GtC as biomass, and removes about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, in some regions, the rate of plant carbon uptake is beginning to slow, largely because of water stress. Here, we develop a new observation-based methodology to diagnose vegetation water stress and link it to environmental drivers. We used the ratio of remotely sensed land surface to near surface atmospheric temperatures (LST/Tair ) to represent vegetation water stress, and built regression tree models (random forests) to assess the relationship between LST/Tair and the main environmental drivers of surface energy fluxes in the tropical Americas. We further determined ecosystem traits associated with water stress and surface energy partitioning, pinpointed critical thresholds for water stress, and quantified changes in ecosystem carbon uptake associated with crossing these critical thresholds. We found that the top drivers of LST/Tair , explaining over a quarter of its local variability in the study region, are (1) radiation, in 58% of the study region; (2) water supply from precipitation, in 30% of the study region; and (3) atmospheric water demand from vapor pressure deficits (VPD), in 22% of the study region. Regions in which LST/Tair variation is driven by radiation are located in regions of high aboveground biomass or at high elevations, while regions in which LST/Tair is driven by water supply from precipitation or atmospheric demand tend to have low species richness. Carbon uptake by photosynthesis can be reduced by up to 80% in water-limited regions when critical thresholds for precipitation and air dryness are exceeded simultaneously, that is, as compound events. Our results demonstrate that vegetation structure and diversity can be important for regulating surface energy and carbon fluxes over tropical regions.