ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To estimate and project the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the supply of education in Zambia. DESIGN: An analysis of the financial implications of HIV/AIDS for the Ministry of Education (MoE) and donors funding education in Zambia. METHODS: A mathematical model was used to project the number of primary school teachers and their HIV status under current plans for teacher training and recruitment. Cost data were compiled from the MoE, the Teacher Education Department, teacher training colleges and the donor consortium BESSIP (Basic Education Sub-Sector Investment Programme). Multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The impact of HIV/AIDS on the supply of primary education imply costs to the MoE and BESSIP estimated at US$1.3-3.1 million in 1999, and projected at $10.6-41.3 million over the period 1999-2010. These costs include salaries paid to teachers absent as a result of HIV-associated illness (71%), additional training of teachers to cope with AIDS-related attrition (22%) and funeral costs contractually met by the MoE (7%). They do not include the additional costs of an active care and prevention response by the MoE, or the burden of ensuring enrolment of AIDS orphans. The annual cost of HIV/AIDS is a relatively small fraction of the overall MoE budget (2.5% in 1999) but has substantial implications for resource allocation to some functions. Expenditure on teacher training will need to increase by 26% if Education for All targets are to be met in the face of AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: HIV/AIDS has significant implications for resource allocation in the education sector in Zambia.
