Baseline plasma SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection predicts an adverse COVID-19 evolution in moderate to severe hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus, known to be the causative agent of COVID-19. As the resulting disease shows a very heterogeneous range of clinical manifestations, the identification of early biomarkers allowing patients stratification according to the expected disease severity is still an unmet clinical need. METHODS: In this observational prospective cohort study, 137 consecutive patients, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR or antigenic test, were enrolled to evaluate their plasma viral load at the time of hospitalization. RESULTS: Even if all of them had a molecular diagnosis of COVID-19, only 29 patients showed a detectable plasma SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia. Such viremic patients also showed other clinical and laboratory finding alterations (increased troponin I, IL-6, RDW-CV, and creatinine levels along with decreased platelet count and glomerular filtration rate). A plasma detectable RNA viral load predicted in hospital death or ICU admission with an odds ratio of 3.53 (CI: 1.44-8.64, P=0.0058), while the lack of a detectable viral load was associated with a faster recovery, with an odds ratio of 4.06 (CI: 1.72-9.59, P=0.0014). These findings were confirmed in multivariate models including age, sex and baseline National Early Warning Score 2 and arterial oxygen tension over inspired oxygen fraction ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Our data thus suggest that plasma viral RNA load at the time of hospital admission could represent a useful independent biomarker allowing early patients' stratification according to the expected disease evolution, and driving clinical decisions tailored on the specific needs of the individual patient.

HSD17B13 and other liver fat-modulating genes predict development of hepatocellular carcinoma among HCV-positive cirrhotics with and without viral clearance after DAA treatment.

BACKGROUND: Genetic predisposition to accumulate liver fat (expressed by a polygenic risk score, GRS, based on the number of at-risk alleles of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and GCKR) may influence the probability of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis C treatment. Whether this holds true taking into account carriage of the HSD17B13:TA splice variant, also affecting lipogenesis, and achievement of viral clearance (SVR), is unknown. METHODS: PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7, GCKR and HSD17B13 variants were determined in a cohort of 328 cirrhotic patients free of HCC before starting treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAA). RESULTS: SVR in the study cohort was 96%. At the end of follow-up, N = 21 patients had been diagnosed an HCC; none of the genes included in the GRS was individually associated with HCC development. However, in a Cox proportional hazards model, a GRS > 0.457 predicted HCC independently of sex, diabetes, albumin, INR and FIB4. The fit of the model improved adding treatment outcome and carriage of the HSD17B13:TA splice variant, with sex, GRS > 0.457, HSD17B13:TA splice variant and failure to achieve an SVR (hazard ratio = 6.75, 4.24, 0.24 and 7.7, respectively) being independent predictors of HCC. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm that genes modulating liver fat and lipogenesis are important risk factors for HCC development among cirrhotics C treated with DAA.