ABSTRACT
Loktak Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes in Manipur, India, is critical for the eco-hydrology and economy of the region, but faces deteriorating water quality due to urbanisation, anthropogenic activities, and domestic sewage. Addressing the urgent need for effective pollution management, this study aims to assess the lake's water quality status using the water quality index (WQI) and develop advanced machine learning (ML) tools for WQI assessment and ML model interpretation to improve pollution management decision making. The WQI was assessed using entropy-based weighting arithmetic and three ML models - Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest (RF) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) - were optimised using a grid search algorithm in the H2O Application Programming Interface (API). These models were validated by various metrics and interpreted globally and locally via Partial Dependency Plot (PDP), Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The results show a WQI range of 72.38-100, with 52.7% of samples categorised as very poor. The RF model outperformed GBM and DNN and showed the highest accuracy and generalisation ability, which is reflected in the superior R2 values (0.97 in training, 0.9 in test) and the lower root mean square error (RMSE). RF's minimal margin of error and reliable feature interpretation contrasted with DNN's larger margin of error and inconsistency, which affected its usefulness for decision making. Turbidity was found to be a critical predictive feature in all models, significantly influencing WQI, with other variables such as pH and temperature also playing an important role. SHAP dependency plots illustrated the direct relationship between key water quality parameters such as turbidity and WQI predictions. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive approach to the evaluation and interpretation of ML models for WQI estimation, which provides a nuanced understanding of water quality dynamics in Loktak Lake. By identifying the most effective ML models and key predictive functions, this study provides invaluable insights for water quality management and paves the way for targeted strategies to monitor and improve water quality in this vital freshwater ecosystem.
Subject(s)
Deep Learning , Water Quality , Lakes , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Ecosystem , IndiaABSTRACT
An increase in population expansion, urban sprawling environment, and climate change has resulted in increased food demand, water scarcity, environmental pollution, and mismanagement of water resources. Groundwater, i.e., one of the most precious and mined natural resources is used to address a variety of environmental demands. Among all, irrigation is one of the leading consumers of groundwater. Various natural heterogeneities and anthropogenic activities have impacted the groundwater quality. As a result, monitoring groundwater quality and determining its suitability are critical for the sustainable long-term management of groundwater resources. In this study, groundwater samples from 35 different sampling stations were collected and tested for various parameters associated with irrigation water quality. Hybrid MCDM (fuzzy-AHP) method was used to determine the groundwater suitability for irrigation purposes. The suitability map obtained using spatial overlay analysis was classified into low, moderate, and high irrigation water suitability zones. Along with suitability analysis, various regression-based machine learning models such as multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared to predict irrigation water suitability. Results depicted that the ANN model with the highest R2 value of 0.990 and RMSE value near to zero (0) has outperformed all other models. The present methodology could be found useful to predict irrigation water suitability in the region where regular sampling and analysis are quite challenging.
