Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is likely secondary to multiple different pathophysiological mechanisms that are increasingly but incompletely understood. Motivated by the hypothesis that 3 previously described electrocardiographic predictors of AF identify distinct AF mechanisms, we sought to determine if these electrocardiographic findings independently predict incident disease. Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants without prevalent AF, we determined whether left anterior fascicular block (LAFB), a prolonged QTC, and atrial premature complexes (APCs) each predicted AF after adjusting for each other. We then calculated the attributable risk in the exposed for each electrocardiographic marker. LAFB and QTC intervals were assessed on baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram (n = 4,696). APC count was determined using 24-hour Holter recordings obtained in a random subsample (n = 1,234). After adjusting for potential confounders and each electrocardiographic marker, LAFB (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 3.9, p = 0.023), a prolonged QTC (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.3, p = 0.002), and every doubling of APC count (HR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3, p <0.001) each remained independently predictive of incident AF. The attributable risk of AF in the exposed was 35% (95% CI 13% to 52%) for LAFB, 25% (95% CI 0.6% to 44%) for a prolonged QTC, and 34% (95% CI 26% to 42%) for APCs. In conclusion, in a community-based cohort, 3 previously established electrocardiogram-derived AF predictors were each independently associated with incident AF, suggesting that they may represent distinct mechanisms underlying the disease.

Ventricular Ectopy as a Predictor of Heart Failure and Death.

BACKGROUND: Studies of patients presenting for catheter ablation suggest that premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) are a modifiable risk factor for congestive heart failure (CHF). The relationship among PVC frequency, incident CHF, and mortality in the general population remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine whether PVC frequency ascertained using a 24-h Holter monitor is a predictor of a decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), incident CHF, and death in a population-based cohort. METHODS: We studied 1,139 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants who were randomly assigned to 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography (Holter) monitoring and who had a normal LVEF and no history of CHF. PVC frequency was quantified using Holter studies, and LVEF was measured from baseline and 5-year echocardiograms. Participants were followed for incident CHF and death. RESULTS: Those in the upper quartile versus the lowest quartile of PVC frequency had a multivariable-adjusted, 3-fold greater odds of a 5-year decrease in LVEF (odds ratio [OR]: 3.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 6.77; p = 0.005), a 48% increased risk of incident CHF (HR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.04; p = 0.02), and a 31% increased risk of death (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.63; p = 0.01) during a median follow-up of >13 years. Similar statistically significant results were observed for PVCs analyzed as a continuous variable. The specificity for the 15-year risk of CHF exceeded 90% when PVCs included at least 0.7% of ventricular beats. The population-level risk for incident CHF attributed to PVCs was 8.1% (95% CI: 1.2% to 14.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based sample, a higher frequency of PVCs was associated with a decrease in LVEF, an increase in incident CHF, and increased mortality. Because of the capacity to prevent PVCs through medical or ablation therapy, PVCs may represent a modifiable risk factor for CHF and death.

Characteristics of unselected high-burden premature ventricular contraction patients.

BACKGROUND: High-burden premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) may be an important determinant of heart failure (HF) in patients presenting for PVC ablation. The prevalence and characteristics of high-burden PVC patients outside this setting remain unknown. We, therefore, sought to determine predictors of high-burden PVCs and, among high-burden PVC patients, predictors of HF. METHODS: We identified all patients undergoing a 24-48-hour Holter study showing at least 20% PVCs between 2005 and 2013 at the University of California, San Francisco. Three time-matched controls undergoing Holter monitoring were selected for each high-burden PVC patient. Medical records were reviewed and test characteristics of PVC counts from 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG) as predictors of high-burden PVC Holters were analyzed. RESULTS: Among 5,091 participants, 66 (1.3%) exhibited at least 20% PVCs. After multivariate adjustment, high-burden PVC patients had a three-fold greater odds of HF (odds ratio [OR] 3.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-6.50; P = 0.005) and 10-fold greater odds of having a first-degree family member with sudden death (OR 9.97; 95% CI 1.78-60.8; P = 0.011). The C-statistic for the number of PVCs on 12-lead electrocardiogram as a predictor of high-burden PVCs was 0.7949. Among high-burden PVC patients, HF was associated with a history of coronary artery bypass grafting (OR 11.76; 95% CI 1.30-106.49; P = 0.028). CONCLUSION: Among all undergoing Holter monitoring, 1.3% exhibited high-burden PVCs, a phenomenon associated with HF and a first-degree family history of sudden death. In an analysis restricted to high-burden PVC patients, a history of coronary artery bypass grafting was a predictor of HF.

Atrial ectopy as a predictor of incident atrial fibrillation: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction models have unclear clinical utility given the absence of AF prevention therapies and the immutability of many risk factors. Premature atrial contractions (PACs) play a critical role in AF pathogenesis and may be modifiable. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether PAC count improves model performance for AF risk. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 4 U.S. communities. PATIENTS: A random subset of 1260 adults without prevalent AF enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study between 1989 and 1990. MEASUREMENTS: The PAC count was quantified by 24-hour electrocardiography. Participants were followed for the diagnosis of incident AF or death. The Framingham AF risk algorithm was used as the comparator prediction model. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, doubling the hourly PAC count was associated with a significant increase in AF risk (hazard ratio, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.22]; P < 0.001) and overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.06 [CI, 1.03 to 1.09]; P < 0.001). Compared with the Framingham model, PAC count alone resulted in similar AF risk discrimination at 5 and 10 years of follow-up and superior risk discrimination at 15 years. The addition of PAC count to the Framingham model resulted in significant 10-year AF risk discrimination improvement (c-statistic, 0.65 vs. 0.72; P < 0.001), net reclassification improvement (23.2% [CI, 12.8% to 33.6%]; P < 0.001), and integrated discrimination improvement (5.6% [CI, 4.2% to 7.0%]; P < 0.001). The specificity for predicting AF at 15 years exceeded 90% for PAC counts more than 32 beats/h. LIMITATION: This study does not establish a causal link between PACs and AF. CONCLUSION: The addition of PAC count to a validated AF risk algorithm provides superior AF risk discrimination and significantly improves risk reclassification. Further study is needed to determine whether PAC modification can prospectively reduce AF risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American Heart Association, Joseph Drown Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

Randomized trial of conventional transseptal needle versus radiofrequency energy needle puncture for left atrial access (the TRAVERSE-LA study).

BACKGROUND: Transseptal puncture is a critical step in achieving left atrial (LA) access for a variety of cardiac procedures. Although the mechanical Brockenbrough needle has historically been used for this procedure, a needle employing radiofrequency (RF) energy has more recently been approved for clinical use. We sought to investigate the comparative effectiveness of an RF versus conventional needle for transseptal LA access. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this prospective, single-blinded, controlled trial, 72 patients were randomized in a 1:1 fashion to an RF versus conventional (BRK-1) transseptal needle. In an intention-to-treat analysis, the primary outcome was time required for transseptal LA access. Secondary outcomes included failure of the assigned needle, visible plastic dilator shavings from needle introduction, and any procedural complication. The median transseptal puncture time was 68% shorter using the RF needle compared with the conventional needle (2.3 minutes [interquartile range {IQR}, 1.7 to 3.8 minutes] versus 7.3 minutes [IQR, 2.7 to 14.1 minutes], P = 0.005). Failure to achieve transseptal LA access with the assigned needle was less common using the RF versus conventional needle (0/36 [0%] versus 10/36 [27.8%], P < 0.001). Plastic shavings were grossly visible after needle advancement through the dilator and sheath in 0 (0%) RF needle cases and 12 (33.3%) conventional needle cases (P < 0.001). There were no differences in procedural complications (1/36 [2.8%] versus 1/36 [2.8%]). CONCLUSIONS: Use of an RF needle resulted in shorter time to transseptal LA access, less failure in achieving transseptal LA access, and fewer visible plastic shavings.

The QT interval and risk of incident atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS: We examined a prolonged QT interval corrected by using the Framingham formula (QT(Fram)) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by using other formulas. RESULTS: Among 14,538 ARIC study participants, a prolonged QT(Fram) predicted a roughly 2-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-2.96; P < .001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in Cardiovascular Health Study and Health, Aging, and Body Composition study and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in the ARIC study, each 10-ms increase in QT(Fram) was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.10-1.17; P < .001) and adjusted (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.07-1.14; P < .001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT interval were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF.

Alcohol and vagal tone as triggers for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

Alcohol and vagal activity may be important triggers for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), but it remains unknown if these associations occur more often than would be expected by chance alone because of the lack of a comparator group in previous studies. We compared self-reported frequency of these triggers in patients with PAF to those with other supraventricular tachycardias (SVTs). Consecutive consenting patients presenting for electrophysiology procedures at a single university medical center underwent a structured interview regarding arrhythmia triggers. Two hundred twenty-three patients with a documented arrhythmia (133 with PAF and 90 with SVT) completed the survey. After multivariable adjustment, patients with PAF had a 4.42 greater odds (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35 to 14.44) of reporting alcohol consumption (p = 0.014) and a 2.02 greater odds (95% CI 1.02 to 4.00) of reporting vagal activity (p = 0.044) as an arrhythmia trigger compared to patients with SVT. In patients with PAF, drinking primarily beer was associated with alcohol as a trigger (odds ratio [OR] 4.49, 95% CI 1.41 to 14.28, p = 0.011), whereas younger age (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.95, p = 0.022) and a family history of AF (OR 5.73, 95% CI 1.21 to 27.23, p = 0.028) each were independently associated with having vagal activity provoke an episode. Patients with PAF and alcohol triggers were more likely to have vagal triggers (OR 10.32, 95% CI 1.05 to 101.42, p = 0.045). In conclusion, alcohol consumption and vagal activity elicit PAF significantly more often than SVT. Alcohol and vagal triggers often were found in the same patients with PAF, raising the possibility that alcohol may precipitate AF by vagal mechanisms.