Using fuzzy logic to compare species distribution models developed on the basis of expert knowledge and sampling records : Expert knowledge versus sampling in species distribution modelling.

BACKGROUND: Experts use knowledge to infer the distribution of species based on fuzzy logical assumptions about the relationship between species and the environment. Thus, expert knowledge is amenable to fuzzy logic modelling, which give to propositions a continuous truth value between 0 and 1. In species distribution modelling, fuzzy logic may also be used to model, from a number of records, the degree to which conditions are favourable to the occurrence of a species. Therefore, fuzzy logic operations can be used to compare and combine models based on expert knowledge and species records. Here, we applied fuzzy logic modelling to the distribution of amphibians in Uruguay as inferred from expert knowledge and from observed records to infer favourable locations, with favourability being the commensurable unit for both kinds of data sources. We compared the results for threatened species, species considered by experts to be ubiquitous, and non-threatened, non-ubiquitous species. We calculated the fuzzy intersection of models based on both knowledge sources to obtain a unified prediction of favourable locations. RESULTS: Models based on expert knowledge involved a larger number of variables and were less affected by sampling bias. Models based on experts had the same overprediction rate for the three types of species, whereas models based on species records had a lower prediction rate for ubiquitous species. Models based on expert knowledge performed equally as well or better than corresponding models based on species records for threatened species, even when they had to discriminate and classify the same set of records used to build the models based on species records. For threatened species, expert models predicted more restrictive favourable territories than those predicted based on records. Observed records generated the best-fitted models for non-threatened non-ubiquitous species, and ubiquitous species. CONCLUSIONS: Fuzzy modelling permitted the objective comparison of the potential of expert knowledge and incomplete distribution records to infer the territories favourable for different species. Distribution of threatened species was able to be better explained by subjective expert knowledge, while for generalist species models based on observed data were more accurate. These results have implications for the correct use of expert knowledge in conservation planning.

Testing the Novel Weapons Hypothesis of the Argentine Ant Venom on Amphibians.

The globally invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) possesses a venom lethal to some amphibian species in the invaded range. To test the novel weapons hypothesis (NWH), the effects of the toxin on the cohabiting amphibian species in the ant's native range need to be investigated. The invader should benefit from the novel chemical in the invaded range, because the species are not adapted, but the venom should not be effective in the native range. We explore the venom effects on juveniles of three amphibian species with different degrees of myrmecophagy inhabiting the ant's native range: Rhinella arenarum, Odontophrynus americanus, and Boana pulchella. We exposed the amphibians to the ant venom, determined the toxic dose, and evaluated the short- (10 min to 24 h) and medium-term (14 days) effects. All amphibian species were affected by the venom independently of myrmecophagy. In addition to amphibian sensitivity, we discuss how the differential Argentine ant abundance and density in the two ranges could be the key to the susceptibility of amphibians to the venom, resulting in the possibility of NWH. Our results confirm the potential magnitude of the impact of the Argentine ant in successfully invaded areas for the conservation of already threatened amphibians.

Multiple forms of hotspots of tetrapod biodiversity and the challenges of open-access data scarcity.

The uneven spatial distribution of biodiversity is a defining feature of nature. In fact, the implementation of conservation actions both locally and globally has progressively been guided by the identification of biodiversity 'hotspots' (areas with exceptional biodiversity). However, different regions of the world differ drastically in the availability of fine-scale data on the diversity and distribution of species, thus limiting the potential to assess their local environmental priorities. Within South America-a megadiverse continent-Uruguay represents a peculiar area where multiple tropical and non-tropical eco-regions converge, creating highly heterogeneous ecosystems, but where the systematic quantification of biodiversity remains largely anecdotal. To investigate the constraints posed by the limited access to biodiversity data, we employ the most comprehensive database for tetrapod vertebrates in Uruguay (spanning 664 species) assembled to date, to identify hotspots of species-richness, endemism and threatened species for the first time. Our results reveal negligible spatial congruence among biodiversity hotspots, and that tetrapod sampling has historically concentrated in only a few areas. Collectively, our study provides a detailed account of the areas where urgent biodiversity monitoring efforts are needed to develop more accurate knowledge on biodiversity patterns, offering government and environmental bodies a critical scientific resource for future planning.

Response to Comment on "Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity".

Lambert et al question our retrospective and holistic epidemiological assessment of the role of chytridiomycosis in amphibian declines. Their alternative assessment is narrow and provides an incomplete evaluation of evidence. Adopting this approach limits understanding of infectious disease impacts and hampers conservation efforts. We reaffirm that our study provides unambiguous evidence that chytridiomycosis has affected at least 501 amphibian species.

Biodiversidata: An Open-Access Biodiversity Database for Uruguay.

BACKGROUND: The continental and marine territories of Uruguay are characterised by a rich convergence of multiple biogeographic ecoregions of the Neotropics, making this country a peculiar biodiversity spot. However, despite the biological significance of Uruguay for the South American subcontinent, the distribution of biodiversity patterns in this country remain poorly understood, given the severe gaps in available records of geographic species distributions. Currently, national biodiversity datasets are not openly available and, thus, a dominant proportion of the primary biodiversity data produced by researchers and institutions across Uruguay remains highly dispersed and difficult to access for the wider scientific and environmental community. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing the first comprehensive, open-access database of biodiversity records for Uruguay (Biodiversidata), which is the result of a large-scale collaboration involving experts working across the entire range of taxonomic diversity found in the country. NEW INFORMATION: As part of the first phase of Biodiversidata, we here present a comprehensive database of tetrapod occurrence records native from Uruguay, with the latest taxonomic updates. The database provides primary biodiversity data on extant Amphibia, Reptilia, Aves and Mammalia species recorded within the country. The total number of records collated is 69,380, spanning 673 species and it is available at the Zenodo repository: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2650169. This is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically comprehensive database of Uruguayan tetrapod species available to date and it represents the first open repository for the country.

Coalescent-based species delimitation in the sand lizards of the Liolaemus wiegmannii complex (Squamata: Liolaemidae).

Coalescent-based algorithms coupled with the access to genome-wide data have become powerful tools for assessing questions on recent or rapid diversification, as well as delineating species boundaries in the absence of reciprocal monophyly. In southern South America, the diversification of Liolaemus lizards during the Pleistocene is well documented and has been attributed to the climatic changes that characterized this recent period of time. Past climatic changes had harsh effects at extreme latitudes, including Patagonia, but habitat changes at intermediate latitudes of South America have also been recorded, including expansion of sand fields over northern Patagonia and Pampas). In this work, we apply a coalescent-based approach to study the diversification of the Liolaemus wiegmannii species complex, a morphologically conservative clade that inhabits sandy soils across northwest and south-central Argentina, and the south shores of Uruguay. Using four standard sequence markers (mitochondrial DNA and three nuclear loci) along with ddRADseq data we inferred species limits and a time-calibrated species tree for the L. wiegmannii complex in order to evaluate the influence of Quaternary sand expansion/retraction cycles on diversification. We also evaluated the evolutionary independence of the recently described L. gardeli and inferred its phylogenetic position relative to L. wiegmannii. We find strong evidence for six allopatric candidate species within L. wiegmannii, which diversified during the Pleistocene. The Great Patagonian Glaciation (∼1 million years before present) likely split the species complex into two main groups: one composed of lineages associated with sub-Andean sedimentary formations, and the other mostly related to sand fields in the Pampas and northern Patagonia. We hypothesize that early speciation within L. wiegmannii was influenced by the expansion of sand dunes throughout central Argentina and Pampas. Finally, L. gardeli is supported as a distinct lineage nested within the L. wiegmannii complex.

Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity.

Anthropogenic trade and development have broken down dispersal barriers, facilitating the spread of diseases that threaten Earth's biodiversity. We present a global, quantitative assessment of the amphibian chytridiomycosis panzootic, one of the most impactful examples of disease spread, and demonstrate its role in the decline of at least 501 amphibian species over the past half-century, including 90 presumed extinctions. The effects of chytridiomycosis have been greatest in large-bodied, range-restricted anurans in wet climates in the Americas and Australia. Declines peaked in the 1980s, and only 12% of declined species show signs of recovery, whereas 39% are experiencing ongoing decline. There is risk of further chytridiomycosis outbreaks in new areas. The chytridiomycosis panzootic represents the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.

Use of Reproductive Microhabitat by Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae) from Uruguay.

This study describes the reproductive microhabitat of Melanophryniscus montevidensis and its use in two water bodies (WBs) in Barra de la Laguna de Rocha, Uruguay. Monthly field trips were performed between March 2012 and February 2013. Variables related to the WBs and vegetation, as well as parameters linked to the usage the amphibians make of the site (e.g: distance to the border of the pond, water depth and the vegetation use) were recorded. The behavior shown by the individuals during the breeding activity was recorded. This activity occurs in shallow temporary WBs with abundant hydrophilic vegetation. The individuals were found more frequently in areas near the edge of the pond, which has denser vegetation. The calling males were found closer to the border of the pond, and they showed better body condition than the non-calling males. In addition to calling activities, males used alternative tactics to find couples, such as active search of females, and aggressive behaviors, such as male displacing and physical combat. Such behaviors are common in anurans with explosive reproductive dynamics. The characterization of the reproductive microhabitats permits the proposal of strategies for the conservation of the species in Uruguay, given that the loss and fragmentation of habitats is one of the main causes considered for the decrease in their populations.

Climate change and the distribution of neotropical red-bellied toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): how to prioritize species and populations?

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.

Experimental test of intraspecific competition mechanisms among tadpoles of Leptodactylus ocellatus (Anura: Leptodactylidae).

Intraspecific competition is predicted to strongly influence species abundance and dynamics through two main mechanisms: consumption and interference of resources. Tadpoles were used in experiments in which we tried to elucidate the relative importance of each mechanism. Our goal was to apply this experimental procedure to Leptodactylus ocellatus, a common South American anuran, a species whose larvae exhibit aggregative behavior and receive parental care. Previous work suggests that tadpole schools should present lower levels of intraspecific competition. Tadpoles from a single nest were reared in the laboratory in three densities (1, 2, and 4 individuals/container) and three food levels (1, 2, and 4 ration multiples) in a randomized three-block design for a factorial analysis of variance, up to day eight. Contrary to previous work with other species, our results show both the absence of interference competition effects, and that larval growth depends only on per capita food availability. The differences between species in intraspecific competition mechanisms are probably related to strong differences in ecology and life history. Leptodactylus ocellatus tadpoles could be directing interference competition away from their kin, reducing schooling costs. Further studies (including kinship as a factor) would give more information about these larvae, allowing a better understanding of the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the biological patterns observed in Leptodactylus species.

Environmental and seasonal variation in the diet of Elachistocleis bicolor (Guérin-Méneville 1838) (Anura: Microhylidae) from northern Uruguay.

We studied the diet of Elachistocleis bicolor captured in pine, eucalypt, and unmodified environments in Uruguay. Comparisons between seasons (active, inactive) and among three environments (pine, eucalypt, unmodified), were made using rarefaction analyses, importance indices, and non-parametric tests. Elachistocleis bicolor has a specialized diet composed mainly of Pheidole and Solenopsis ants and termites. The diet of E. bicolor includes a high number of prey per individual, suggesting active search as a foraging strategy. The consumption of myrmicine ants (i.e., Solenopsis) represents a source for potential toxic skin secretions that in E. bicolor may be used to avoid being attacked in the ant nests used for shelter during aestivation, as occurs in the microhylid Phrynomantis microps. Diets in forested environments were richer in both periods, which may reflect the colonization of opportunistic ant species in these environments. Ants were more important in the eucalyptus plantations, particularly in the inactive period, whereas termites were more important in the pine plantations mainly in the inactive period. These environmental and seasonal differences in diet are consistent with the temperature and humidity tolerances of ants and termites, which are the main prey of E. bicolor.

Further studies on pumiliotoxin 251D and hydroquinone content of the skin secretion of Melanophryniscus species (Anura, Bufonidae) from Uruguay.

In whole animal ethanolic extracts from adult specimens of Melanophryniscus atroluteus (27 specimens) and M. devincenzii (16 specimens) as well as of two egg clutches and four tadpole samples from the latter species, the major alkaloid pumiliotoxin (PTX) 251D and hydroquinone were assayed quantitatively by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. All toad extracts contained high concentrations of PTX 251D and hydroquinone and exhibited considerable variation in the content of these compounds among individual specimens. The extracts of the eggs and tadpoles were entirely free of alkaloids as well as hydroquinone, pointing to a dietary origin of these compounds.

Lack of bufadienolides in the skin secretion of red bellied toads, Melanophryniscus spp. (Anura, Bufonidae), from Uruguay.

The South-American red bellied toads (Melanophryniscus spp.) belonging to the Bufonidae family contain toxic alkaloids in their skin, predominantly of the pumiliotoxin group. Whole animal methanolic extracts of individual specimens of three species (Melanophryniscus atroluteus, M. devincenzii, and M. montevidensis) were analyzed for the presence of toad specific bufadienolides and indolalkylamines (serotonin derivatives) by HPLC-electrospray (ESI)-MS-TOF. No bufadienolides, but few bufotenines, mainly dehydrobufotenine, were detected in the extracts in variable amounts. The concentration of the dehydrobufotenine in the extracts seems to be species specific. Whereas M. atroluteus and M. montevidensis contain very low or trace amounts, M. devincenzii specimens exhibit high concentrations of this indolalkylamine. In comparison, analysis of extracts from Bufo arenarum (Uruguay) and from B. bufo (Germany) confirmed the presence of bufadienolides as well as of bufotenine derivatives. Tadpoles of both species exhibited a different pattern: extracts from B. arenarum tadpoles contained only dehydrobufotenine, but those from B. bufo tadpoles bufotoxin and two alkylamines. Melanophryniscus toads appear not to be able to compensate the high variability of toxic skin alkaloids by producing defensive bufadienolides.

Studies on the poisonous skin secretion of individual red bellied toads, Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura, Bufonidae), from Uruguay.

Toads belonging to the genus Melanophryniscus contain toxic alkaloids in their skin. From six locations in south-eastern Uruguay 81 specimens of Melanophryniscusmontevidensis were collected. In whole animal methanolic extracts of individual specimens, alkaloids of the pumiliotoxin (PTX) group and indolizidines were identified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry; the predominant component PTX 251D was assayed quantitatively. The PTX-content of the various toad populations was found to be highly variable among individual specimens as well as among the populations. Very high levels of PTX 251D were detected in toads of the western part of the collection area, whereas very low levels of this alkaloid were assayed in toads near the Brazilian border. Remarkably high concentrations of the non-alkaloid hydroquinone were found to be present in all toads. The analysis of extracts from 125 arthropod samples (Arachnida and Insecta, including termites, ants and beetles), which may represent a potential food source, revealed no alkaloids of the PTX group.