Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWAs the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large-scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5, BA.2.75 and other sub- and lineages. We combine the different sources of information in a simple estimate of the pandemic delay and show that only in combination, the pandemic potentials of the lineages are correctly assessed relative to each other. Country-level epidemic intelligence is not enough to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and a scalable integrated approach, i.e. pandemic intelligence, is required to enhance global preparedness.

Proactive vs. reactive country responses to the COVID19 pandemic shock

The infection caused by SARS-CoV-2, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is characterized by an infectious period with either asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic phases, leading to a rapid surge of mild and severe cases putting national health systems under serious stress. To avoid their collapse, and in the absence of pharmacological treatments, during the early pandemic phase countries worldwide were forced to adopt strategies, from elimination to mitigation, based on non-pharmacological interventions which, in turn, overloaded social, educational and economic systems. To date, the heterogeneity and incompleteness of data sources does not allow to quantify the multifaceted impact of the pandemic at country level and, consequently, to compare the effectiveness of country responses. Here, we tackle this challenge from a complex systems perspective, proposing a model to evaluate the impact of systemic failures in response to the pandemic shock. We use health, behavioral and economic indicators for 44 countries to build a shock index quantifying responses in terms of robustness and resilience, highlighting the crucial advantage of proactive policy and decision making styles over reactive ones.

Multiscale statistical physics of the Human-SARS-CoV-2 interactome

Protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks have been used to investigate the influence of SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins on the function of human cells, laying out a deeper understanding of COVID-19 and providing ground for drug repurposing strategies. However, our knowledge of (dis)similarities between this one and other viral agents is still very limited. Here we compare the novel coronavirus PPI network against 45 known viruses, from the perspective of statistical physics. Our results show that classic analysis such as percolation is not sensitive to the distinguishing features of viruses, whereas the analysis of biochemical spreading patterns allows us to meaningfully categorize the viruses and quantitatively compare their impact on human proteins. Remarkably, when Gibbsian-like density matrices are used to represent each systems state, the corresponding macroscopic statistical properties measured by the spectral entropy reveals the existence of clusters of viruses at multiple scales. Overall, our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 exhibits similarities to viruses like SARS-CoV and Influenza A at small scales, while at larger scales it exhibits more similarities to viruses such as HIV1 and HTLV1.

Assessing the risks of "infodemics" in response to COVID-19 epidemics

Our society is built on a complex web of interdependencies whose effects become manifest during extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with shocks in one system propagating to the others to an exceptional extent. We analyzed more than 100 millions Twitter messages posted worldwide in 64 languages during the epidemic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 and classified the reliability of news diffused. We found that waves of unreliable and low-quality information anticipate the epidemic ones, exposing entire countries to irrational social behavior and serious threats for public health. When the epidemics hit the same area, reliable information is quickly inoculated, like antibodies, and the system shifts focus towards certified informational sources. Contrary to mainstream beliefs, we show that human response to falsehood exhibits early-warning signals that might be mitigated with adequate communication strategies.