Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero.

The causes of methane's renewed rise since 2007, accelerated growth from 2014 and record rise in 2020, concurrent with an isotopic shift to values more depleted in 13C, remain poorly understood. This rise is the dominant departure from greenhouse gas scenarios that limit global heating to less than 2°C. Thus a comprehensive understanding of methane sources and sinks, their trends and inter-annual variations are becoming more urgent. Efforts to quantify both sources and sinks and understand latitudinal and seasonal variations will improve our understanding of the methane cycle and its anthropogenic component. Nationally declared emissions inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and promised contributions to emissions reductions under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement need to be verified independently by top-down observation. Furthermore, indirect effects on natural emissions, such as changes in aquatic ecosystems, also need to be quantified. Nitrous oxide is even more poorly understood. Despite this, options for mitigating methane and nitrous oxide emissions are improving rapidly, both in cutting emissions from gas, oil and coal extraction and use, and also from agricultural and waste sources. Reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emission are arguably among the most attractive immediate options for climate action. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Short-term variations in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere.

The hydroxyl radical is the predominant atmospheric oxidant, responsible for removing a wide range of trace gases, including greenhouse gases, from the atmosphere. Determination of trends and variability in hydroxyl radical concentrations is critical to understanding whether the 'cleansing' properties of the atmosphere are changing. The variability in hydroxyl radical concentrations on annual to monthly timescales, however, is difficult to quantify. Here we show records of carbon monoxide containing radiocarbon (14CO), which is oxidized by hydroxyl radicals, from clean-air sites at Baring Head, New Zealand, and Scott Base, Antarctica, spanning 13 years. Using a model study, we correct for known variations in production of 14CO (refs 6, 7), allowing us to exploit this species as a diagnostic for short term changes in hydroxyl radical concentrations. We find no significant long-term trend in hydroxyl radical concentrations but provide evidence for recurring short-term variations of around ten per cent persisting for a few months. We also find decreases in hydroxyl radical concentrations of up to 20 per cent, apparently triggered by the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991 and by the occurrence of extensive fires in Indonesia in 1997.