Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

The interplay between the entrepreneurial leadership identity, entrepreneurial leadership competency and venture growth intentions of women in rural Australia.

Cultivating business growth intentions in rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs is crucial, considering the unique challenges they face in rural areas. The growth intentions of rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs remain understudied. This study pioneers research on the interplay between entrepreneurial leadership competency, identity, and growth intentions of rural, regional, and remote Australian women. We surveyed rural, regional, and remote women entrepreneurs in Queensland, Australia, using structural equation modeling for analysis. Results revealed a positive relationship between entrepreneurial leader identity, business growth intentions, and entrepreneurial leadership competency. Moreover, entrepreneurial leadership competency positively correlated with growth intentions. The study indicated that entrepreneurial leadership competency partially mediates the link between identity and growth intentions. This research addresses a theoretical gap by introducing a new model showcasing the relationships between entrepreneurial leadership identity, entrepreneurial leadership competency, and venture growth intentions. From a practical standpoint, our findings strengthen the business case for improving tailor-made rural, regional, and remote entrepreneurial development programs.

Predicting the current habitat refugia of Himalayan Musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster) across Nepal.

Himalayan Musk deer, Moschus chrysogaster is widely distributed but one of the least studied species in Nepal. In this study, we compiled a total of 429 current presence points of direct observation of the species, pellets droppings, and hoofmarks based on field-based surveys during 2018-2021 and periodic data held by the Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation. We developed the species distribution model using an ensemble modeling approach. We used a combination of bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables to predict the current suitable habitat for Himalayan Musk deer in Nepal. A total of 16 predictor variables were used for habitat suitability modeling after the multicollinearity test. The study shows that the 6973.76 km2 (5%) area of Nepal is highly suitable and 8387.11 km2 (6%) is moderately suitable for HMD. The distribution of HMD shows mainly by precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature ranges, distance to water bodies, anthropogenic variables, and land use and land cover change (LULC). The probability of occurrence is less in habitats with low forest cover. The response curves indicate that the probability of occurrence of HMD decreases with an increase in precipitation seasonality and remains constant with an increase in precipitation of the warmest quarter. Thus, the fortune of the species distribution will be limited by anthropogenic factors like poaching, hunting, habitat fragmentation and habitat degradation, and long-term forces of climate change.

Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Private Forests across Two Different Physiographic Regions of Nepal: Implications for Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation.

Private forests offer diverse ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, which are crucial for Nepal. However, there is a notable absence of comprehensive research on these services. Assessing carbon sequestration in private forests can have economic advantages for forest owners by promoting resource conservation and contributing to greenhouse gas reduction. This study aims to estimate and compare carbon stocks in private forests located in two distinct physiographic regions of Nepal while also identifying the factors influencing these carbon stocks. The analysis focuses on 16 private forests (with 0.1 to 0.5 hectares) each from Chitwan district (Terai region) and Kavrepalanchok district (Hilly region). Field data collection involved direct measurements of tree and sapling diameter at breast height (DBH), as well as height and class of trees and poles, utilizing a total enumeration method. These collected values were utilized to calculate aboveground biomass (AGTB), aboveground sapling biomass (AGSB), belowground biomass, and carbon stock. Private forests of Terai region were dominated by Shorea borneensis, Tectona grandis, and Dalbergia sissoo, whereas the Hilly region was dominated by Pinus patula, Alnus nepalensis, Schima wallichii, and Quercus leucotrichophora. The aboveground biomass carbon in the Terai region's private forests was estimated to be 83.53 t·ha-1, while in the Hilly region, it was 37.32 t·ha-1. The belowground biomass carbon in the Terai region's private forests was found to be 21.72 t·ha-1, compared to 9.70 t·ha-1 in the Hilly region. Consequently, the estimated total carbon stock in the Terai and Hilly regions' private forests was 105.25 t·ha-1 (386.26 t·ha-1 CO2-eq) and 47.02 t·ha-1 (172.57 t·ha-1 CO2-eq), respectively. Carbon sequestration in the Terai region's private forests was discovered to be 2.24 times higher than that in the Hilly region. These findings underscore the significant potential of private forests, which can generate economic benefits through carbon trading and leverage mechanisms such as REDD+/CDM to promote sustainable conservation practices.

Landscape predictors influencing livestock depredation by leopards in and around Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal.

Livestock depredation by leopards is a pervasive issue across many Asian and African range countries, particularly in and around protected areas. Developing effective conflict mitigation strategies requires understanding the landscape features influencing livestock depredation. In this study, we investigated predictors associated with livestock depredation by leopards using 274 cases of leopard attacks on livestock that occurred between 2017 and 2020 in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. We also examined how livestock predation by leopards varied depending on the species, season, and time. A generalized linear model with binary logistic regression was used to test the statistical significance of variables associated with the presence and absence of conflict sites. The results revealed that the area of forest, agricultural land, length of rivers, slope, proximity to settlements and protected areas, and elevation significantly predicted the probability of leopard attacks on livestock. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of leopard predation on livestock with decreasing slopes and rising elevations. The areas near human settlements and the protected areas faced a higher risk of leopard predation. The incidence of leopard predation on livestock varied significantly depending on the livestock species, season, and time. Goats were the most highly predated livestock, followed by sheep, cow/ox, and buffalo. A total of 289.11 km2 (or around 5% of the research area) was deemed to be at high risk for leopard predation on livestock. This study's comprehensive understanding of human-leopard conflicts provides valuable insights for planning and implementing measures to reduce damage caused by leopard populations throughout their range.

Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) conservation in Bardia National Park, Nepal: Assessing population structure and habitat characteristics along the river channel amidst infrastructure development.

Nepal initiated numerous hydropower and irrigation-related infrastructure projects to enhance and promote green energy, water security, and agricultural productivity. However, these projects may pose risks to natural habitats and the well-being of aquatic fauna, leading to significant effects on delicate ecosystems. To understand these potential impacts, it is crucial to gather reliable baseline data on the population status and habitat characteristics of species. This study specifically focuses on Gharials (Gavialis gangeticus), a critically endangered species. We recorded data on pre-determined habitat variables at stations spaced 500 m apart along the two major river streams of Bardia National Park, as well as at locations where Gharials were sighted between February and March 2023. We used binary logistic regression with a logit link function to investigate the habitat characteristics related to the occurrence of Gharials. The presence/absence of Gharials at sampling points served as the dependent variable, while 10 other predetermined variables (ecological variables and disturbance variables) served as independent variables. Our study recorded 23 Gharials, comprising 14 adults, six sub-adults, and three juveniles, with a sex ratio of 55.56 males per 100 females. Most individuals (83%) were found basking. Among the 10 habitat predictors, three variables (mid-river depth, river width, and water temperature) were significantly correlated (p < .05) with the probability of Gharial occurrence. The model shows that Gharial detection probability increases with greater mid-river depth and width and lower water temperature. This study establishes a population baseline for Gharials within the river system before the construction of large infrastructure projects, such as dams and irrigation canals. It also recommends continuous monitoring of Gharial populations after water release and/or diversion to evaluate the impact of large infrastructure projects on the population and their associated habitat characteristics. This will help enable more informed and targeted conservation efforts.

Attitudes towards the Potential Use of Aversive Geofencing Devices to Manage Wild Elephant Movement.

Aversive geofencing devices (AGDs) or animal-borne satellite-linked shock collars might become a useful tool to mitigate human-elephant conflict (HEC). AGDs have the potential to condition problem elephants to avoid human-dominated landscapes by associating mild electric shocks with preceding audio warnings given as they approach virtual boundaries. We assessed the opinions of different stakeholders (experts, farmers, and others who have and have not experienced HEC; n = 611) on the potential use of AGDs on Asian elephants. Most respondents expressed positive opinions on the potential effectiveness of AGDs in managing elephant movement (62.2%). About 62.8% respondents also provided positive responses for the acceptability of AGDs if pilot studies with captive elephants have been successful in managing their movements. Some respondents perceived AGDs to be unacceptable because they are unethical or harmful and would be unsuccessful given wild elephants may respond differently to AGDs than captive elephants. Respondents identified acceptability, support and awareness of stakeholders, safety and wellbeing of elephants, logistical difficulties, durability and reliable functionality of AGDs, and uncertainties in elephants' responses to AGDs as potential challenges for implementing AGDs. These issues need attention when developing AGDs to increase support from stakeholders and to effectively reduce HEC incidents in the future.

Preference, perceived change, and professed relationship among ecosystem services in the Himalayas.

The demand side of ecosystem service (ES), especially preference and perception of supply and interactions among ES, is an important yet underexplored research area for landscape planning and management in human-dominated landscapes. Taking a case of multifunctional landscape in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, we carried out a social survey of ES, focusing on preference, perceived change, and observed relationship among six major ES from the local people's perspective. Using a semi-structured questionnaire, data collection was done from 300 households from 10 categories of human settlements, based on watershed and land cover types. Garrett mean score (GMS), ordinal logistic regression estimates, and Chi-square test were performed for quantitative data, while an inductive approach was adopted for qualitative data analysis. The results show that at the landscape level, local people preferred water yield (GMS = 70) and crop production (GMS = 66) as the most preferred ES, whereas habitat quality (GMS = 37) and carbon sequestration (GMS = 35) were among the least preferred ES. More than 70% of the respondents believed that the supply of crop production has decreased over the last two decades; however, the supply of other provisioning and non-provisioning ES has increased as observed by majority of the respondents. Among the 15 pairs of ES, local people believe that co-occurrence of ES is possible. Majority of the respondents said that there exist synergistic relationship among 13 pairs of ES, except crop production which is negatively related with timber production and carbon sequestration. Among the identified trade-offs in ES, majority of local people believed that direct trade-offs (i.e., linear inverse relationship) is dominant as observed in 8 pairs of ES, followed by concave and convex trade-offs. Based on our analysis, we argue that the preference and perceived change of ES is more dependent on spatial heterogeneity of communities (i.e., watershed type, municipal category, and land cover type of residence) than socio-economic determinants. Further, we have discussed and suggested few policy and management measures including place-based spatial assessment of the social demand and preference, embracing agroforestry practices in ecosystem management programs, mainstreaming non-local ES in local decision making by incentives, and optimizing the supply of desired ES though integrated biophysical and socio-economic assessment of the landscape.

Potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings from replacing short motorcycle trips with active travel modes in Vietnam.

In reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there is a recognition triggered by the pandemic of the role that walking and cycling (active travel) can make to substitute motorized travel, particularly on short trips. However, there is a lack of evidence at the micro level on the realistic, empirically derived, potential of these options. Here, we used reliable tracing data to examine the potential of these mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions in Vietnam. Apart from similar categories of travel purposes as in other studies, we decided to categorize "visit relatives" and "eating out" as two more separate categories of travel purposes in Vietnamese case, which together accounts for nearly 16% of total trips. We discovered that 65% of all motorcycle trips in this case study were less than 3 miles in duration, therefore active travel was able to create a significant impact on GHG emissions from personal travel. Active travel can replace 62% of short motorcycle trips if considering travel patterns and constraints while saving 18% of GHG emissions that would have come from motorized transport. If active travel can further replace all shopping trips normally done by motorcycles, in total being equivalent to 84% of short trips, 22% of GHG emissions from motorcycles can be reduced. It should be noticed that active travels have time cost implications, impacting economy at both household and city levels, but from a comprehensive "co-benefit" standpoint, this transformation could act as a catalyst for addressing traffic congestion, air pollution, and even community health and well-being in urban areas.

Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on financial returns of smallholder coffee plantations in Lao PDR.

Laos is among the top twenty coffee producing country in the world-producing about 39,000 tonnes per year-and most of its production is currently exported to over 26 countries, contributing about 1.1% of the total export value or US$64.3 million in 2019 to Laos' national economy. COVID-19 restrictions on trade and movement of people have largely impacted on coffee markets and production. As a strategic crop in Laos, it is supported by a range of policies and programs to generate greater benefits to both independent smallholder farmers and those involved in cooperatives, including support for agroforestry production models involving coffee and tree crops. However, studies of the profitability of different coffee agroforestry models are limited. This study compares financial returns from four most popular coffee agroforestry models in two coffee production provinces of Laos, before and during COVID-19 pandemic. The data were gathered from 20 farmers, five coffee traders and an integrated coffee processing company. These data were then triangulated with, and supplemented by, interviews with coffee exporters (n = 3) and key informants (n = 4). Financial indicators suggest that all four agroforestry models were profitable before COVID, but profits for cooperative growers were higher than for smallholders due to higher crop productivity and lower costs. Despite higher prices due to COVID restrictions, other factors reduced profitability of all four models and one smallholder model became unprofitable. The reasons for such differences and related policy implications are discussed.

Understanding local ecosystem dynamics in three provinces of the lowlands of Nepal.

Incidences of failure of sustainable ecosystem management policies, especially in the developing world are partly attributable due to a lack of political will and inadequate understanding of ecosystem dynamics (ED) at the local levels. In this study, we endeavor to comprehend the dynamics of two ecosystems - forest and agriculture - by employing a resource-friendly participatory approach based on stake-taking the experiences of indigenous and forest-dependent local stakeholders in three lowland provinces of Nepal and is guided by the theory of socio-ecological concept. An in-depth survey (n = 136) was conducted using semi-structured questionnaires, key informant interviews (n = 9), and focus group discussions (n = 4) for data generation, and generalized linear models were used to test whether understanding of ED is uniform across the socio-ecological landscape. We identified that various attributes of forests and agricultural ecosystems have altered substantially earlier than 30 years (hereafter, earlier decade) relative to the present (hereafter, later decade). Apart from the natural processes including anthropogenic and climatic factors, technological innovations played a significant role in altering ecosystems in the later decade. Understanding of ED among forest-dependent stakeholders significantly varied with respect to gender, occupation, age group, gender-based water fetching responsibility, and water-fetching duration, however, no significant correlation was observed with their level of education across the landscape. The studied ecosystem attributes significantly correlate with water regime changes, signifying that water-centric ecosystem management is crucial. The attributes that observed significant dynamics in the forest ecosystem include changes in forest cover, structure and species composition, the severity of invasive species, wildfires, water regimes, and abundance and behavioral changes in mammals and avifauna. The alteration of crop cultivation and harvesting season which results in a decrease in yield, increased use of chemicals (fertilizers and pesticides), an increase in fallow land, and the proliferation of hybrid variety cultivation in the later decade are significant disparities in the dynamics of the agriculture ecosystem. To withstand the accelerated ED, stakeholders adopt various strategies, however, these strategies are either obtained from unsustainable sources entail high costs and technology, or are detrimental to the ecosystems. In relation, we present specific examples of ecosystem attributes that have significantly experienced changes in the later decade compared to the earlier decades along with plausible future pathways for policy decisions sustaining and stewardship of dynamic ecosystems across the socio-ecological landscape.

Carbonated tiger-high above-ground biomass carbon stock in protected areas and corridors and its observed negative relationship with tiger population density and occupancy in the Terai Arc Landscape, Nepal.

Healthy natural forests maintain and/or enhances carbon stock while also providing potential habitat and an array of services to wildlife including large carnivores such as the tiger. This study is the first of its kind in assessing relationships between above-ground biomass carbon stock, tiger density and occupancy probability and its status in protected areas, corridors, and forest connectivity blocks. The dataset used to assess the relationship were: (1) Converged posterior tiger density estimates from camera trap data derived from Bayesian- Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture model from Chitwan National Park; (2) Site wise probability of tiger occupancy estimated across the Terai Arc Landscape and (3) Habitat wise above-ground biomass carbon stock estimated across the Terai Arc Landscape. Carbon stock maps were derived based on eight habitat classes and conservation units linking satellite (Landsat 7 ETM+) images and field collected sampling data. A significant negative relationship (r = -0.20, p<0.01) was observed between above-ground biomass carbon stock and tiger density in Chitwan National Park and with tiger occupancy (r = -0.24, p = 0.023) in the landscape. Within protected areas, we found highest mean above-ground biomass carbon stock in high density mixed forest (~223 tC/ha) and low in degraded scrubland (~73.2 tC/ha). Similarly, we found: (1) highest tiger density ~ 0.06 individuals per 0.33 km2 in the riverine forest and lowest estimates (~0.00) in degraded scrubland; and (2) predictive tiger density of 0.0135 individuals per 0.33 km2 is equivalent to mean total of 43.7 tC/ha in Chitwan National Park. Comparatively, we found similar above-ground biomass carbon stock among corridors, large forest connectivity blocks (~117 tC/ha), and within in tiger bearing protected areas (~119 tC/ha). Carbon conservation through forest restoration particularly in riverine habitats (forest and grassland) and low transitional state forests (degraded scrubland) provides immense opportunities to generate win-win solutions, sequester more carbon and maintain habitat integrity for tigers and other large predators.

Community evaluation of forest and REDD+ governance quality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has over 100 million Ha of forest and has significant potential to benefit from these forests, including through REDD+ if they are managed effectively. Effective governance of forest landscapes is essential for environmental management and equitable harnessing of ecosystem service benefits for communities. Poor governance, political instability, and capacity limitations in the DRC are widely highlighted. However, there have been few, if any, attempts to evaluate forest governance in the DRC, especially at the community level. This paper reports a community-level evaluation of forest governance in the DRC, using a survey method. The results suggest that REDD+ projects have the ability to improve forest governance as perceived by the community. The research shows that building the right capacity, consulting and accessing the needs of the community and building long-term projects and partnerships a key success factors. These findings and the novel approach to supporting communities to evaluate their governance are applicable to similar community-level forest governance contexts.

Transforming agroforestry in contested landscapes: A win-win solution to trade-offs in ecosystem services in Nepal.

Trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly becoming a pressing issue in sustainability science, to deal with supply constraints of landscape and divergence in demand from local and global stakeholders. Agroforestry is a well acknowledged and established management practice to minimize the trade-offs, and to sustainably manage the contested landscapes while satisfying the growing demands of both local and global ecosystem beneficiaries. However, various facets of agroforestry, its management modality, institutional arrangements, and implementation outcomes are inadequately understood. This paper aims to scrutinize major agroforestry practices through the methods of systematic review of literature, government policies, and project reports. Taking a case of Nepal, this paper presents agroforestry transition from forest-based agroforestry (i.e., shifting cultivation) to farm-based integrated approach to agroforestry in Nepal. This paper reveals that integrated agro-forestry approach is crucial in creating win-win scenarios among various stakeholders by minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies among ES, especially food, fibre, and other ES (i.e., biodiversity, soil functioning, water, and climate regulation). Analysing socio-economic, ecological, and institutional factors that are affecting agroforestry for the last fifty years, we further suggest an integrated model of agroforestry which is replicable in other countries with similar socio-economic status, practicing subsistence farming system. The findings of the paper are crucial in awakening scholars, policy makers and landscape managers for up-scaling and out-scaling of integrated approach to agroforestry for ecosystem management and attainment of various sustainable development goals such as, no poverty (#1), zero hunger (#2), climate action (#13), and life on land (#15).

Current and Future Approaches to Mitigate Conflict between Humans and Asian Elephants: The Potential Use of Aversive Geofencing Devices.

Asian elephants are a principal cause of human-wildlife conflict. This results in the death/injury of elephants and humans and large-scale crop and property damage. Most current human-elephant conflict (HEC) mitigation tools lack the flexibility to accommodate the ecological needs of elephants and are ineffective at reducing HEC in the long-term. Here we review common HEC mitigation tools used in Asia and the potential of Aversive Geofencing Devices (AGDs) to manage problem elephants. AGDs can be configured to monitor animal movements in real-time and deliver auditory warnings followed by electric stimuli whenever animals attempt to move across user-specified virtual boundaries. Thus, AGDs are expected to condition elephants to avoid receiving shocks and keep them away from virtually fenced areas, while providing alternative routes that can be modified if required. Studies conducted using AGDs with other species provide an overview of their potential in conditioning wild animals. We recommend that the efficacy and welfare impact of AGDs be evaluated using captive elephants along with public perception of using AGDs on elephants as a means of addressing the inherent deficiencies of common HEC mitigation tools. If elephants could be successfully conditioned to avoid virtual fences, then AGDs could resolve many HEC incidents throughout Asia.

Impact of COVID-19 in the forestry sector: A case of lowland region of Nepal.

All walks of life have been affected by COVID-19 but smallholders from developing countries have been impacted more than others as they are heavily reliant on forest and agriculture for their livelihoods and have limited capacity to deal with COVID-19. Scholars are heavily engaged in assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on health and wellbeing, gender, food production and supply, stock market and the overall economy but not on the forestry sector. Using questionnaire surveys and key informant interviews-informed by grey literature and published articles- representing Division Forest Offices, Provincial Forest Directorates, and the Ministry of Forests and Environment in Nepal, this study assessed the impact of COVID-19 on the forestry sector of Nepal. Our analysis suggests that: (1) nature-based tourism is more severely affected than other sectors; (2) private, religious and leasehold forests faced minimal impacts of COVID-19 than that of community and government-managed forests; (3) wild boar (Sus scrofa), different species of deer, and birds have been more impacted than other wild animals; (4) the price of the timber has increased significantly whereas the price of non-timber forests products (NTFPs) has decreased; and (5) illegal logging and poaching have increased but the incidence of forest encroachment has been reduced. Our study further reveals that agroforestry practices in home gardens, borrowing money from neighbors/banks/landlords and liquidating livestock remained key alternatives for smallholders during COVID-19. Many studies reported that reverse migration could create chaos in Nepal, but our study suggests that it may enhance rural innovation and productivity, as returnees may use their acquired knowledge and skills to develop new opportunities. As COVID-19 has created a war-like situation worldwide, Nepal should come up with a forward-looking fiscal response with alternative income generation packages to local living to counter the impacts of COVID-19 on the forestry sector. One of the options could be implementing similar programs to that of India's US$ 800 Compensatory Afforestation Program and Pakistan's 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Program, which will create a win-win situation, i.e., generate employment for reverse migrants and promotes forest restoration.

How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective.

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.

Assay of renewable energy transition: A systematic literature review.

Issues of environmental degradation, finite quantity and uneven spatial distribution of fuels in nature, and growing demand accentuated by volatility of oil prices have led to the global clean renewable energy transition (RET). With an objective of examining the current knowledge-stock on RET, we reviewed 248 journal publications pooled from three databases (ScienceDirect, Web of Science and Scopus) using a Systematic Literature Review method. This study does not focus on the specifications of a particular energy technology or regress relations among a limited set of variables. Rather, the key contribution is the critical assessment of the factors that encourage and those that hinder the transition process to provide a wider perspective through seven broad lenses: technological, investment, market, environmental, government and institutional, policy and social. Research, development and implementation of technology is a direct outcome of policy investment. Developed countries are leading the RET research while the global south is far behind. Most of the studies were found to be donor-driven which faced a serious risk of being counter-welcomed in different settings of the world without compromising the objectives of the transition. A strong international collaboration among the rich and poor countries is urgently felt necessary to foster mutual benefits. Research, planning and implementation of the RET would be highly effective and sustainable through a participatory bottom-up approach promoting local technology instead of imposed expensive imported ones. The need for "demand-pull" and "technology-push" policy instruments is stringent for successful transition. We conclude that there is a unanimous agreement among all the studies on the future prospects of renewable energy in the electricity sector; however, some skepticism still exists regarding other high energy demanding areas. Our review recommends updating existing and designing new robust policy mixes to guide the modality and pace of the RET, adhering to local specificities.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal.

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

How much do we know about trade-offs in ecosystem services? A systematic review of empirical research observations.

As an important domain of sustainability science, trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for spatial planning to sustainably manage natural resources while satisfying the needs of local and non-local beneficiaries. However, there is still a growing debate in understanding, characterization, and visualization of the trade-off relationships. This paper systematically reviews a total of 473 articles, published in the last 16 years (2005-2020) through 135 academic journals, based on empirical studies conducted in over 80 countries, and led by the researcher from over 50 countries. Trade-off relationships are often visualized as spatial associations of ES, but very few articles have characterized trade-offs as the causal interaction among ES. More than two-thirds of the studies were carried out in temperate and sub-tropical regions, but we depicted an under-representation of the critical ecosystems in tropics. About 90% of the articles were based on funded research but the involvement of government institutions was very low (<10%). Trade-off analysis was based only on biophysical constraints of the ecosystem, as observed in more than 80% of the selected articles, without due regards of the divergence in utility functions of different stakeholders and ecosystem beneficiaries. This study identifies a total of 198 pairs of conflicting ES, of which the trade-off between crop production and carbon/climate services has the highest records of observation (i.e., as identified by 20% of the total studies). Further, this study identifies the major drivers (i.e., ecological and social) and stakeholders (i.e., land users and government agencies) of trade-off in ES, and major gaps in the analytical approach to understand the trade-off relationships. Based on our findings, we have discussed and recommended a number of research trajectories, including trans-disciplinary research considering both biophysical constraints and utility functions, in order to guide the future direction of sustainability science through the creation of win-win scenarios.