ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1-2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0-9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial. The lesson learnt on the ship is generally applicable in other settings.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundsThe emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong and estimated the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. MethodsIndex cases were identified and reported after symptoms onset, and contact tracing was conducted to collect the data of the associated secondary cases. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit a Gamma distribution function to govern the SI of COVID-19. FindingsAssuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9-6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8-5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong. ConclusionThe SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are recommended in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.
ABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To examine the Eastern-Western difference in the interpretation of Integrative Medicine Attitude Questionnaire (IMAQ) by assessing the psychometric properties of a revised Chinese medicine (CM)-specific version of IMAQ (CM-IMAQ).</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Factor and Rasch analysis were performed with data collected from a mail survey of 165 Hong Kong Western medical doctors (WMD) randomly sampled from the official registry. The structural validity, unidimensionality, item fit, and differential item functioning (DIF) of the Hong Kong CM-IMAQ were evaluated.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) demonstrated that the original IMAQ factor structure was not concordant with our data on Chinese WMD, and subsequent explanatory factor analysis (EFA) validated a new three-factor model for CM-IMAQ: (1) attitude towards "tonification", (2) attitude towards the effectiveness of CM, and (3) attitude towards CM knowledge. The original IMAQ factor on holism and doctor-patient relationship disappeared. Rasch analysis confirmed the unidimensionality of "tonification" and the effectiveness domains, but further refinement of the knowledge domain is needed.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Cultural adaptation of the IMAQ has demonstrated differences between Eastern and Western doctors trained in allopathic medicine in their interpretations of holism in healthcare. For Chinese WMD, the emphasis of holistic care is placed on "tonifying" the body rather than on nurturing the mind and spirit. Confucian and Taoist conceptualizations of mental health as well as the persistent stigma towards mental illness within modern Chinese culture may explain why Chinese WMD do not regard mental health promotion as part of routine healthcare.</p>
