Knowledge-based expert systems for toxicity and metabolism prediction: DEREK, StAR and METEOR.

It has long been recognised that the ability to predict the metabolic fate of a chemical substance and the potential toxicity of either the parent compound or its metabolites are important in novel drug design. The popularity of using computer models as an aid in this area has grown considerably in recent years. LHASA Limited has been developing knowledge-based expert systems for toxicity and metabolism prediction in collaboration with industry and regulatory authorities. These systems, DEREK, StAR and METEOR, use rules to describe the relationship between chemical structure and either toxicity in the case of DEREK and StAR, or metabolic fate in the case of METEOR. The rule refinement process for DEREK often involves assessing the predictions for a novel set of compounds and comparing them to their biological assay results as a measure of the system's performance. For example, 266 non-congeneric chemicals from the National Toxicology Program database have been processed through the DEREK mutagenicity knowledge base and the predictions compared to their Salmonella typhimurium mutagenicity data. Initially, 81 of 114 mutagens (71%) and 117 of 152 non-mutagens (77%) were correctly identified. Following further knowledge base development, the number of correctly identified mutagens has increased to 96 (84%). Further work on improving the predictive capabilities of DEREK, StAR and METEOR is in progress.

Prediction of rodent carcinogenicity using the DEREK system for 30 chemicals currently being tested by the National Toxicology Program. The DEREK Collaborative Group.

DEREK is a knowledge-based expert system for the qualitative prediction of toxicity. The DEREK system has been used to predict the carcinogenicity in rodents of the 30 chemicals in the second National Toxicology Program (NTP) carcinogenicity prediction exercise. Seven of the chemicals were predicted to be carcinogens. For 23 chemicals, there was no evidence in the DEREK knowledge base to suggest carcinogenic activity. Supplementary data from a variety of sources have been evaluated by human experts to assess confidence in each DEREK prediction. These sources included standard toxicology reference texts, genotoxicity and subchronic toxicity assay results for each chemical, as well as Salmonella mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data for close structural analogues. This process has led to the proposal of a number of improvements to the DEREK carcinogenicity knowledge base.

Computer prediction of possible toxic action from chemical structure: an update on the DEREK system.

Computer-based assessment of potential toxicity has become increasingly popular in recent years. The knowledge-base system DEREK is developed under the guidance of a multinational Collaborative Group of expert toxicologists and provides a qualitative approach to toxicity prediction. Major developments of the DEREK program and knowledge-base have taken place in the last 3 years. Program developments include improvements in both the user interface and data processing. Work on the knowledge-base has concentrated on the areas of genotoxicity and skin sensitisation. DEREK's predictive capabilities for these toxicological end-points has been demonstrated. In addition to the continued expansion of the knowledge-base, a number of enhancements are planned in the DEREK program. In particular, work is in progress to develop further DEREK's ability to report the reasoning behind its predictions.