Impact of shipping emissions on air pollution and pollutant deposition over the Barents Sea.

Arctic warming leading to reduced summertime sea-ice is likely to lead to increased local shipping especially along the Northeast Passage near the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, which are shorter than the traditional southerly routes. Here, the regional chemistry-transport model WRF-Chem is used to examine the effects of shipping emissions on levels of air pollutants and deposition fluxes over the Barents Sea both for present-day and future conditions, based on a high growth scenario. Present-day shipping emissions are found to have already substantial effects on ozone concentrations, but limited effects on sulphate and nitrate aerosols. Predicted future changes in ozone are also important, particularly in regions with low nitrogen oxide concentrations, and results are sensitive to the way in which diversion shipping is distributed due to non-linear effects on photochemical ozone production. Whilst modest future increases in sulphate and nitrate aerosols are predicted, large enhancements in dry deposition of sulphur dioxide and wet deposition of nitrogen compounds to the Barents Sea are predicted. Such levels of future nitrogen deposition would represent a significant atmospheric source of oceanic nitrogen affecting sensitive marine ecosystems.

Implementation and Impacts of Surface and Blowing Snow Sources of Arctic Bromine Activation Within WRF-Chem 4.1.1.

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric bromine are known to cause ozone depletion in the Arctic, which is most frequently observed during springtime. We implement a detailed description of bromine and chlorine chemistry within the WRF-Chem 4.1.1 model, and two different descriptions of Arctic bromine activation: (1) heterogeneous chemistry on surface snow on sea ice, triggered by ozone deposition to snow (Toyota et al., 2011 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3949-2011), and (2) heterogeneous reactions on sea salt aerosols emitted through the sublimation of lofted blowing snow (Yang et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034536). In both mechanisms, bromine activation is sustained by heterogeneous reactions on aerosols and surface snow. Simulations for spring 2012 covering the entire Arctic reproduce frequent and widespread ozone depletion events, and comparisons with observations of ozone show that these developments significantly improve model predictions during the Arctic spring. Simulations show that ozone depletion events can be initiated by both surface snow on sea ice, or by aerosols that originate from blowing snow. On a regional scale, in spring 2012, snow on sea ice dominates halogen activation and ozone depletion at the surface. During this period, blowing snow is a major source of Arctic sea salt aerosols but only triggers a few depletion events.

Local Arctic air pollution: Sources and impacts.

Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO2) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.