Parental unemployment and children's educational attainment: How big is the role of aspirations?

Children exposed to parental unemployment have been found to lag behind in school, but research has struggled to pin down the underlying explanation. One hypothesis is that parental unemployment may dampen children's aspirations to do well and go far in school. Yet, few studies on parental unemployment have relied on actual measures of children's aspirations or devised a formal analysis of this mechanism. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Waves 1-12, N = 1067), I investigate the role of educational aspirations in children's General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) attainment. I compare adolescents exposed to parental unemployment before or only after the typical age at which GCSE exams are taken. In adjusted models, children exposed to parental unemployment before their GCSEs are around 6 percentage points less likely to attain any GCSE qualification by age 17. On average, children have high educational aspirations, although intentions to enrol in college or university are relatively lower among children exposed to an early spell of parental unemployment. Nevertheless, a hypothetical intervention setting these aspirations to the same level for all children only accounts for a modest portion of the educational penalty tied to an early spell of parental unemployment. Several sensitivity and robustness tests support this conclusion. This note seeks to stimulate more research on the mechanisms underpinning the intergenerational effects of unemployment. Findings cast doubts on the idea that children's aspirations, the target of broader policy discourse and interventions, are a crucial part of the equation.

Do high-income households 'label' family cash benefits? Evidence on family expenditures from Australia.

This study examines family expenditures and how they respond to the provision of family cash transfers, particularly among higher-income families. Naming cash benefits with explicit reference to 'families' or 'children' can nudge households into labelling the extra cash for financial investments in children. Labelling has mainly been assessed among lower-income families. Yet if also higher-income families engage in labelling, there could be unintended consequences on the often stark disparities in child-related investments across the socio-economic divide. Drawing on 2006-2019 data from Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), the study relies on reforms to Australia's Family Tax Benefit to 'reveal' expenditure responses among higher-income families via an instrumented difference-in-differences design. Higher-income households seem to earmark a family cash transfer for children's clothing but not for children's education fees, while they also assign money to adult clothing. Lower-income households, differently, seem to engage in more clear-cut, child-oriented labelling, at the expense of adult-assignable goods. Family cash transfers can nudge households into spending more money on their children across the socioeconomic divide, but not necessarily homogeneously so. Providing more well-off families with modest transfers might thus have limited perverse effects on inequality in family expenditures.

Parental Job Loss and Early Child Development in the Great Recession.

The study examines whether and why parental job loss may stifle early child development, relying on cohort data from the population of children born in Ireland in 2007-2008 (N = 6,303) and followed around the time of the Great Recession (2008-2013). A novel approach to mediation analysis is deployed, testing expectations from models of family investment and family stress. Parental job loss exacerbates problem behavior at ages 3 and 5 (.05-.08 SDs), via the channels of parental income and maternal negative parenting. By depressing parental income, job loss also hampers children's verbal ability at age 3 (.03 SDs). This is tied to reduced affordability of formal childcare, highlighting a policy lever that might tame the intergenerational toll of job loss.