Geographical region and clinical outcomes of patients with primary biliary cholangitis from Western Europe.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The are geographic variations in the incidence and prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim was to explore whether clinical outcomes of patients within Western Europe differ according to geographical region. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from European centers from the Global PBC database diagnosed from 1990 onwards were included. Patients with a time lag > 1 year from diagnosis to start of follow-up were excluded. Differences in baseline characteristics were studied according to North/South and East/West, whereas outcomes (transplant-free survival and decompensation) were studied with center latitude and longitude. Cox regression analyses were adjusted for age, sex, diagnosis year, biochemical markers, and cirrhosis as a time-dependent covariate. RESULTS: One thousand eight hundred seventy-eight patients were included, and there were no geographical differences in age or sex, with a mean age of 54 years and 89% female patients. Those in North Europe were more often of a moderately advanced/advanced Rotterdam biochemical stage (28.4%) compared with South Europe (20.6%). Additionally, they exhibited higher median alkaline phosphatase (2.0 ×ULN vs. 1.4 ×ULN) and transaminases. In multivariable analysis, there was a significant interaction between center latitude and longitude for decompensation (P < 0.001) and a trend for transplant-free survival, in which the Northwestern area demonstrated an increased risk for poor outcomes as compared to the reference (Paris). CONCLUSION: We describe geographic variations in outcomes for patients across Europe from specialist centers in the Global PBC Study Group. Further study is important to explore the potential individual, environmental, and healthcare-related factors that may be contributors.

Fibrosis stage is an independent predictor of outcome in primary biliary cholangitis despite biochemical treatment response.

BACKGROUND: Fibrosis stage predicts prognosis in patients with chronic liver disease independent of aetiology, although its precise role in risk stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains undefined. AIM: To assess the utility of baseline fibrosis stage in predicting long-term outcomes in the context of biochemical risk stratification METHODS: In a large and globally representative cohort of patients with PBC, liver biopsies performed from 1980 to 2014 were evaluated. The predictive ability of histologic fibrosis stage in addition to treatment response at 1 year (Toronto/Paris-II criteria), as well as non-invasive markers of fibrosis (AST/ALT ratio [AAR], AST to platelet ratio index [APRI], FIB-4), for transplant-free survival was assessed with Cox proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: There were 1828 patients with baseline liver biopsy. Advanced histologic fibrosis (stage 3/4) was an independent predictor of survival in addition to non-invasive measures of fibrosis with the hazard ratios ranging from 1.59 to 2.73 (P < .001). Patients with advanced histologic fibrosis stage had worse survival despite biochemical treatment response, with a 10-year survival of 76.0%-86.6% compared to 94.5%-95.1% depending on the treatment response criteria used. Poor correlations were observed between non-invasive measures of fibrosis and histologic fibrosis stage. CONCLUSION: Assessment of fibrosis stage grants prognostic value beyond biochemical treatment response at 1 year. This highlights the need to incorporate fibrosis stage in individual risk stratification in patients with PBC, partly to identify those that may derive benefit from novel therapies.