Validation of a new score for outcome prediction in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Most models for outcome prediction in heart failure are under-utilized because complex or including non-routine clinical use variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic score for patients with stable heart failure, including only easily obtainable parameters. METHODS: In 376 outpatients with heart failure (ejection fraction ≤40%), twelve variables were individually correlated with 5-year mortality. Those resulted significant predictors of cardiac and overall mortality were used to obtain a risk score. It was validated on a different sample of 325 patients previously enrolled in other clinical studies, according to tertiles of score. RESULTS: Previous acute decompensated heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ejection fraction <30%, not-taking beta-blockers, chronic renal failure were the variables included in the final model. There was a significant difference in 5-year cardiac (P=0.004) and all-cause (P=0.003) mortality risk. Compared to the first tertile of the score, the second tertile and the third tertile had an increasing risk for cardiac cause admission (respectively, HR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.5-4.9 and HR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1) and for heart failure worsening hospitalization (HR:4.3; 95% CI: 1.3-14.5 and HR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1) as well as the third tertile (respectively, HR:3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1 and HR:3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1.). CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic model, named OSR HF Risk Score, is a simple, quick, inexpensive tool for predicting patient outcome in 5 years. It might be used as an adjunctive tool in outpatients evaluation alongside more complex scores.

Improved survival in patients with chronic mild/moderate systolic heart failure followed up in a specialist clinic.

OBJECTIVE: To relate therapeutic issues, comorbidities and functional parameters to mortality/morbidity of mild/moderate heart failure patients. METHODS: From our heart failure clinic, 372 heart failure patients (269 men, aged 66 ± 11 years), with stable heart failure and ejection fraction 45% or less were recruited. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations of protective/risk factors with cardiovascular mortality/morbidity were also evaluated. RESULTS: One hundred and two patients (27%) died (aged 70 ± 10 years at diagnosis, 76 ± 10 at death) during follow-up (overall mortality at 60 months: 19.2%; mean follow-up period: 67 ± 44 months). Cardiovascular deaths were 64 (63% of total deaths, 44 men, age at diagnosis 70 ± 9). Cardiovascular mortality at 60 months was 12%; standardized mortality ratio was 5.9 for women and 6.8 for men. The remaining 38 patients (37% of total deaths, 30 men, age at diagnosis 70 ± 10) died of noncardiovascular causes. Overall, noncardiovascular mortality at 60 months was 7.2%; mean survival time from diagnosis to death was 63 ± 69 months (median 42, Q1 = 27.5, Q3 = 77.7). Average cardiovascular admission rate was 1.63 ± 1.84 admissions/patient. At multivariate analysis, only previous history of myocardial infarction [hazard ratio: 3.62 (1.70-7.73)], class of ejection fraction at diagnosis [hazard ratio: 0.36 (0.32-0.60)], acute cardiac decompensation at any time [hazard ratio: 1.55 (1.32-1.84)], implanted defibrillator [hazard ratio: 0.11 (0.01-0.83)] and use of statins [hazard ratio: 0.08 (0.007-0.42)] were independently associated with cardiovascular mortality. Factors associated to higher annual cardiovascular morbidity were age at diagnosis, chronic renal failure, diabetes, cardiac decompensation at any time, female sex and diuretic therapy. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and/or angiotensin-receptor-blockers reduced annual cardiovascular morbidity. CONCLUSION: Survival in mild/moderate heart failure patients has consistently improved. Further improvements are warranted in terms of morbidity reduction.

Beneficial electrophysiological effects of trimetazidine in patients with postischemic chronic heart failure.

The aim of the study was to assess whether trimetazidine (TMZ) could affect dispersion of atrial depolarization and ventricular repolarization. Corrected QT interval (QTc), QTc dispersion (QTc-d), Tpeak-Tend, and Tpeak-Tend dispersion (Tpeak-Tend-d) were measured in 30 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) before and 6 months after randomization to conventional therapy plus TMZ (17 patients) or conventional therapy alone (13 patients). After 6 months, QTc was significantly reduced in both groups, whereas QT-peak was increased only in control group. Tpeak-Tend-d decreased (from 63.53 +/- 24.73 to 42.35 +/- 21.07 milliseconds, P = .006) only in TMZ group. When subgrouped according to CHF etiology, only ischemic patients on TMZ showed Tpeak-Tend-d reduction (65.00 +/- 27.14 vs 36.67 +/- 11.55 milliseconds, P = .001 in ischemic patients; 60.00 +/- 20.00 vs 56.00 +/- 33.86 milliseconds, P = NS, in nonischemic). These electrophysiological properties indicate an undiscovered mechanism of action of TMZ, which could be useful in conditions at risk of major arrhythmias.