ABSTRACT
AimsWe assessed COVID-19 epidemic risks associated with relaxing a set of physical distancing restrictions in the state of Victoria, Australia - a setting with low community transmission - in line with a national framework that aims to balance sequential policy relaxations with longer-term public health and economic need. MethodsAn agent-based model, Covasim, was calibrated to the local COVID-19 epidemiological and policy environment. Contact networks were modelled to capture transmission risks in households, schools and workplaces, and a variety of community spaces (e.g. public transport, parks, bars, cafes/restaurants) and activities (e.g. community or professional sports, large events). Policy changes that could prevent or reduce transmission in specific locations (e.g. opening/closing businesses) were modelled in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including via a smartphone app), and quarantine. ResultsPolicy changes leading to the gathering of large, unstructured groups with unknown individuals (e.g. bars opening, increased public transport use) posed the greatest risk, while policy changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known individuals (e.g. small social gatherings) posed least risk. In the model, epidemic impact following some policy changes took more than two months to occur. Model outcomes support continuation of working from home policies to reduce public transport use, and risk mitigation strategies in the context of social venues opening, such as >30% population-uptake of a contact-tracing app, physical distancing policies within venues reducing transmissibility by >40%, or patron identification records being kept to enable >60% contact tracing. ConclusionsIn a low transmission setting, care should be taken to avoid lifting sequential COVID-19 policy restrictions within short time periods, as it could take more than two months to detect the consequences of any changes. These findings have implications for other settings with low community transmission where governments are beginning to lift restrictions.
ABSTRACT
Despite high sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence in the Pacific, there are limited data on STIs and risk among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender people (TG). In 2011, an Integrated Bio-Behavioural Survey recruited self-identified MSM and TG in Port Vila, Vanuatu. Descriptive findings were stratified by sexuality. Among 28 (55%) MSM and 23 (45%) TG, recent anal sex with male partners was more common among MSM (94% vs 71%; P < 0.1), including with casual (47% vs 35%), regular (59% vs 29%) and paying partners (28% vs 12%). MSM more commonly reported lifetime (P < 0.01) and recent sex with female partners (P < 0.01). Reported condom use with any partner type was low. More MSM (35%) than TG (24%) were diagnosed with an STI; previous treatment-seeking behaviour when symptomatic was lower among TG (P < 0.1). Tailored strategies acknowledging differences between MSM and TG are required to reduce STI vulnerability in Vanuatu.
