ABSTRACT
Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.
ABSTRACT
Climate models are essential tools for investigating intrinsic North Atlantic variability related to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but recent observations have called into question the fidelity of models that emphasize the importance of Labrador Sea processes. A multicentury preindustrial climate simulation that resolves ocean mesoscale eddies has a realistic representation of key observed subpolar Atlantic phenomena, including the dominance of density-space overturning in the eastern subpolar gyre, and thus provides uniquely credible context for interpreting short observational records. Despite weak mean surface diapycnal transformation in the Labrador Sea, multidecadal AMOC variability can be traced to anomalous production of dense Labrador Sea Water with buoyancy forcing in the western subpolar gyre playing a substantial driving role.
ABSTRACT
This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Inter-comparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example, it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. This survey illustrates TRACMIP's potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate and to address questions on past and future climate change.
