Innovation and the growth of human population.

Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species (Homo sapiens) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services (θ), and the strength of technological feedback (ξ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead, different possibilities unfold for our future depending on their impact on the environment and on further innovation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'.

A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century.

Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.

Patterns in body mass distributions: sifting among alternative hypotheses.

Understanding how animals interact with their environment is critical for evaluating, mitigating and coping with anthropogenic alteration of Earth's biosphere. Researchers have attempted to understand some aspects of these interactions by examining patterns in animal body mass distributions. Energetic, phylogenetic, biogeographical, textural discontinuity and community interaction hypotheses have been advanced to explain observed patterns. Energetic and textural discontinuity hypotheses focus upon the allometry of resource use. The community interaction hypothesis contends that biotic interactions within assemblages of species are of primary importance. Biogeographical and phylogenetic hypotheses focus on the role of constraints on the organization of communities. This paper examines and organizes these various propositions about species body mass distributions and discusses the multiple competing hypotheses, how their predictions vary, and possible methods by which the hypotheses can be distinguished and tested. Each of the hypotheses is partial, and explains some elements of pattern in body mass distributions. The scale of appropriate application, relevance and interpretation varies among the hypotheses, and the mechanisms underlying observed patterns are likely to be multicausal and vary with scale.

Ecology. Invariants, scaling laws, and ecological complexity.

There has been much debate about scaling laws in nature. It is believed that as body size increases the number of individuals in the population decreases. As Marquet explains in his Perspective, an elegant new study in two totally separate stream communities (Schmid et al.) confirms that this scaling law holds across more than 400 species of invertebrates.

Threshold parameters and metapopulation persistence.

A method is presented to estimate the minimum viable metapopulation size based on the basic reproductive number R(0) and the expected time to extinction tau(E) for epidemiological models. We exemplify our approach with two simple deterministic metapopulation models of the patch occupancy type and then proceed to stochastic versions that permit the estimation of the minimum viable metapopulation size.

Pattern formation in a patch occupancy metapopulation model: a cellular automata approach.

The explicit consideration of space in ecological research is of paramount importance to understand the structure and functioning of ecological systems. In this paper we develop a simple spatially explicit metapopulation model in which colonization is constant and independent of the number of occupied patches (i.e. propagule-rain effect, Gotelli, 1991). Extinction, on the other hand, is modelled as a stochastic process whose intensity depends on the number of occupied patches in the neighborhood of each focal patch. Our model is the CA counterpart of two classical patch occupancy metapopulation models. We analytically prove this by showing that our CA converges to the differential equation in the mean-field approximation. The asymptotic behaviour of the system, expressed as the proportion of occupied patches, agrees with the equilibrium proportion of patches derived by using ODEs. In both models, the existence of a rescue-effect increases the range of extinction and colonization parameters over which the system attains complete occupancy of patches. However, in our model this result is strongly influenced by the degree of coupling among patches and is apparent only for local interactions. With local interactions and particular parameter values of colonization and extinction, self-organized spatio-temporal patterns emerge with a fractal-like clustering, even though the environment is spatially homogeneous. Our results point out that the importance of being spatial and discrete (Durrett & Levin, 1994a) in our model is a result of local interactions.

Evolution of body size: consequences of an energetic definition of fitness.

We develop a general model for the effect of body size on fitness. We define fitness as reproductive power, the rate of conversion of energy into offspring. Reproductive power is assumed to be limited by a two-step process: first, the rate of acquisition of energy from the environment, which scales allometrically as body mass raised to approximately the 0.75 power, and then the rate of conversion of energy into offspring, which scales as mass to approximately the -0.25 power. The model predicts (1) the distinctive right-skewed shape of the frequency distribution of logarithms of body sizes among species that is observed in a wide variety of organisms from bacteria to mammals; (2) a taxon-specific optimal body size, which for mammals is approximately 100 g and is supported by data on the body sizes of mammals on islands; and (3) that in each taxon the relationships between such life-history and ecological characteristics as longevity, clutch size, home range size, and population density will change both slope and sign on either side of the optimal size. An energetic definition of fitness has the potential to unify areas of ecology and evolutionary biology that have previously used models based on different currencies.

Scaling population density to body size in rocky intertidal communities.

Interspecific comparisons of animal population density to body size has been the subject of active research in the last decade, especially for terrestrial animals when considering particular taxa or taxonomic assemblages. Studies of rocky intertidal communities showed that animal population density scales with body size to the -0.77 power. This relation held within local communities representing a broad array of animal taxa and was not affected by a dramatic alteration in the network of between-species interactions, as revealed by two long-term human exclusion experiments.

Ecological aspects of thermoregulation at high altitudes: the case of andean Liolaemus lizards in northern Chile.

We document activity field temperatures, daily activity patterns, and extent of thermoregulation in four species of Liolaemus lizards inhabiting at high altitude (above 3500 m) in the Andes of northern Chile. These four species have similar activity field temperature (Tb near 29°C) despite their being distributed at different altitudinal belts. However, conspicuous differences exist between higher-altitude (L. alticolor and L. jamesi) and lower-altitude (L. islugensis and L. ornatus) lizards regarding extent of thermoregulation and activity period. Some differences in morphology, behavior, and patterns of microhabitat occupancy are also apparent among these four species and are seemingly related to the thermal environment to which they are subjected. In comparison to eight low-altitude Liolaemus species in central Chile (Tb near 35°C) the four high-altitude species in northern Chile have lower activity field temperature. The latter is apparently due to the constraints imposed by the harsh Andean thermal environment, a hypothesis supported by the fact that high-altitude Liolaemus lizards under laboratory conditions demonstrate body temperatures that exceed by 5°C or more, those recorded in the field.

Microhabitat shifts of lizards under different contexts of sympatry: a case study with South American Liolaemus.

The Iguanid lizard Liolaemus tenuis is shown to be a rock and trunk dweller (apparently preferring perches between 0-30 cm height) in a central Chilean locality where it coexists with a single ground-dwelling congener. In its southern distributional ranges L. tenuis is sympatric with another tree-dweller, L. pictus. Habitat shift is demonstrated in this latter case by L. tenuis concentrating on tree trunks, and at modal heights 30-60 cm. Liolaemus pictus occupies lower (apparently more favorable) perches, actively interferring with its congener.