Quantifying cost of disease in livestock: a new metric for the Global Burden of Animal Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Increasing awareness of the environmental and public health impacts of expanding and intensifying animal-based food and farming systems creates discord, with the reliance of much of the world's population on animals for livelihoods and essential nutrition. Increasing the efficiency of food production through improved animal health has been identified as a step towards minimising these negative effects without compromising global food security. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) programme aims to provide data and analytical methods to support positive change in animal health across all livestock and aquaculture animal populations. METHODS: In this study, we present a metric that begins the process of disease burden estimation by converting the physical consequences of disease on animal performance to farm-level costs of disease, and calculates a metric termed the Animal Health Loss Envelope (AHLE) via comparison between the status quo and a disease-free ideal. An example calculation of the AHLE metric for meat production from broiler chickens is provided. FINDINGS: The AHLE presents the direct financial costs of disease at farm-level for all causes by estimating losses and expenditure in a given farming system. The general specification of the model measures productivity change at farm-level and provides an upper bound on productivity change in the absence of disease. On its own, it gives an indication of the scale of total disease cost at farm-level. INTERPRETATION: The AHLE is an essential stepping stone within the GBADs programme because it connects the physical performance of animals in farming systems under different environmental and management conditions and different health states to farm economics. Moving forward, AHLE results will be an important step in calculating the wider monetary consequences of changes in animal health as part of the GBADs programme. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Livestock health and disease economics: a scoping review of selected literature.

Animal diseases in production and subsistence environments have the potential to negatively affect consumers, producers, and economies as a whole. A growing global demand for animal sourced food requires safe and efficient production systems. Understanding the burden of animal disease and the distribution of burden throughout a value chain informs policy that promotes safe consumption and efficient markets, as well as providing more effective pathways for investment. This paper surveys existing knowledge on the burden of animal disease across economic categories of production, prevention and treatment, animal welfare, and trade and regulation. Our scoping review covers 192 papers across peer-reviewed journals and reports published by organizations. We find there exists a gap in knowledge in evaluating what the global burdens of animal diseases are and how these burdens are distributed in value chains. We also point to a need for creating an analytical framework based on established methods that guides future evaluation of animal disease burden, which will provide improved access to information on animal health impacts.

Effects of changes in short-term human cognition on reported healthcare utilisation.

Growing empirical evidence indicates that financial anxiety causes reductions in short-term cognitive capacity. Results from urban communities in Delhi, India show sizable differences in the number of health events recalled between the poor and non-poor respondents over experimentally controlled recall periods. One explanation for this recall difference is 'poor memory'. Such results provide additional reasons for healthy skepticism of the accuracy of self-reported health survey data. The present research identifies which forms of cognitive capacity are related to health event recall and assesses the roles of poverty and illiteracy as mediating variables. Results indicate that underreporting of health events among the poor in rural Kenya is not solely due to 'poor memory'. Data used comes from a repeated cross-sectional study conducted in Samburu county, Kenya over 10-months between 2017-2018. This period coincided with the ending of a protracted and severe drought in East Africa. The results presented in the current study confirm the poor and non-poor distinction, but provide a more detailed cognitive explanation for such results. Reflective throught, as measured by fluid intelligence and heuristic use, is shown to be good predictors of fever recall among relatively poor rura communities in central Kenya.

Economic Benefits of Diagnostic Testing in Livestock: Anaplasmosis in Cattle.

Anaplasmosis is a costly livestock disease that persists across the United States and the world. While the traditional control options of feed additives, vaccination, and post-infection antibiotic treatments exist, the highly infectious, often asymptomatic onset of anaplasmosis in cattle makes the optimal combination of disease control measures uncertain. Reducing the infection uncertainty through early detection may help producer management decisions and reduce the economic impact of anaplasmosis. To address this, we calculate the costs of applying a range of anaplasmosis control decisions for a representative cow-calf producer in the United States and extend existing analyses to incorporate early detection through diagnostic testing. We use parameters from extant literature, including for mortality, morbidity, and treatment costs to populate a stochastic, dynamic model. Updating the cost estimates finds that production losses account for the majority of anaplasmosis costs, following previous empirical estimates. Using these estimates in our decision model, the outcomes suggest that diagnostic testing with preventative treatments is the optimal herd management strategy. By further framing our findings in the context of three anaplasmosis infection regions in the United States (endemic, disease free, non-endemic buffer), we show that additional considerations exist, which can make sub-optimal control strategies competitive. Our analysis provides an initial exploration of the economic feasibility of diagnostic testing, while helping to assess the burden of anaplasmosis more accurately.

Household Macronutrient Prices and Livestock Health in Western Kenya.

Understanding food insecurity issues is in part contingent on understanding food consumption and its costs. We develop estimates of protein, lipid, and carbohydrate macronutrient consumption from household food consumption in western Kenya. We then calculate the shadow price per gram of macronutrient consumption as a share-weighted expense-consumption ratio. Using household bovine, goat, and sheep livestock health observations linked to each household, we analyze the association between livestock illness and macronutrient prices. We find that on average carbohydrates have a 75% budget share, with protein at 14% and lipids at 11%. Average macronutrient shadow prices are 0.0936 Ksh/g for carbohydrates, 0.4373 Ksh/g for protein, and 0.5938 Ksh/g for lipids. Average village-level livestock illness occurrences have significant effects on macronutrient shadow prices. Increasing average bovine illness at the village level by one additional case results in a marginal increase of the shadow prices of protein, lipids, and carbohydrates by 0.11, 0.12, and 0.03 (Ksh/g), respectively. Associated marginal impacts of sheep illness occurrence on protein, lipid, and carbohydrate shadow prices (Ksh/g) are 0.1405, 0.182, and 0.0455, respectively. This exploratory analysis provides empirical evidence that livestock illness is associated with increased macronutrient shadow prices, and hence the costs of available energy consumption. These results help guide policy instruments focused on market forces of nutrient consumption and its relationship with livestock health in undernourished areas with smallholder farming systems.

A Rational Explanation of Limited FMD Vaccine Uptake in Endemic Regions.

Vaccination for foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease remains low in parts of Africa despite the existence of vaccines. In East Africa, the presence of multiple virus serotypes and sub-types makes matching a vaccine with the circulating virus type in the field, or providing a high potency vaccine, a challenge. In this paper we use game theory to show that the resulting vaccine uncertainty associated with these vaccination conditions in an endemic setting help explain the low vaccine uptake. We evaluate vaccination for FMD in the context of East Africa due to FMD being endemic in the region, the diversity of FMD virus types, and barriers to implementing other disease control measures, such as controlled movements. We incorporate these conditions into a vaccination game setting and compare the payoffs to those of a traditional vaccination game for seasonal influenza and commercial livestock vaccination in a developed country context. In showing that vaccination provides households with a lower payoff than not vaccinating, our simple game theoretical explanation supports existing evidence calling for improved vaccine quality and efforts to enhance surveillance to provide early information on disease status.

Why isn't everyone using the thermotolerant vaccine? Preferences for Newcastle disease vaccines by chicken-owning households in Tanzania.

Understanding preferences for veterinary vaccines in low and middle-income countries is important for increasing vaccination coverage against infectious diseases, especially when the consumer is responsible for choosing between similar vaccines. Over-the-counter sales of vaccines without a prescription gives decision-making power to consumers who may value vaccine traits differently from national or international experts and vaccine producers and distributers. We examine consumer preferences for La Sota and I-2 Newcastle disease vaccines in Tanzania to understand why two vaccines co-exist in the market when I-2 is considered technically superior because of its thermotolerance. Household survey and focus group results indicate consumers perceive both vaccines to be effective, use the two vaccines interchangeably when the preferred vaccine is unavailable, and base preferences more on administration style than thermotolerance. Considering the consumers' perspectives provides a way to increase vaccination coverage by targeting users with a vaccine that fits their preferences.

Biotechnology to sustainability: Consumer preferences for food products grown on biodegradable mulches.

This study evaluates consumer preferences for an agricultural product grown on biodegradable mulch film, which is an environmentally friendly soil cover that sustains plant growth, but that avoids the environmental harm of plastic pollution from non-biodegradable mulches in the field or upon disposal. Using a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation method, we assessed the willingness to pay for strawberries grown on biodegradable mulch with a randomized information treatment on 1510 consumers across different regions of the United States. On average, consumers are willing to pay 10.3% more for food -strawberries in our case- grown on biodegradable mulches. Consumers who are female, earn a higher income, have stronger environment-friendly attitudes, or received the information treatment on the benefits of biodegradable mulches, also expressed more willingness to pay a premium price for strawberries grown on biodegradable mulches. Our findings support that consumers are willing to internalize a price premium for food products on biodegradable mulches, suggesting that agricultural producers could realize private benefits from price premiums that could, in turn, generate social benefits by increasing biodegradable mulch use, leading to a reduction of plastic pollution. By providing empirical evidence on the potential adoption of biotechnology in the food production system, our results allow agricultural crop producers to make more informed decisions on growing and pricing strategies. Our research will also facilitate agricultural scientists and policymakers to articulate industry-supporting policies for sustainable development.

Enhancing livestock vaccination decision-making through rapid diagnostic testing.

•Compared to vaccination, the collective approach to diagnostic testing presents a low-fixed cost.•Existing household livestock-health behaviors increase the likelihood for uptake of preventative health practices.•Initial evidence to support household investments in livestock preventative health over therapeutic treatments.

Drivers of vaccination preferences to protect a low-value livestock resource: Willingness to pay for Newcastle disease vaccines by smallholder households.

Vaccination can be an effective risk management approach to minimize the burden of disease and increase livestock productivity for smallholder households in low income countries. In contrast to vaccination of cattle, a high-value smallholder asset, there is a significant knowledge gap for the drivers of vaccine adoption of smallholder poultry. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) causes high mortality in chickens and is one of the greatest constraints to East African poultry production. To determine preferences and willingness to pay for NDV vaccines by chicken-owning households in Tanzania, we administered a survey with a contingent valuation activity to 535 households across six villages in Arusha, Singida, and Mbeya regions. Given the low current vaccination rate, we tested the null hypothesis that smallholder households do not value NDV vaccines and found overwhelming evidence that smallholders do value NDV vaccines. The willingness to pay (WTP) estimate was 5853 Tanzanian shillings ($2.64) to vaccinate ten chickens given the vaccine was protective for a period of three months. This estimate is about twice the market price reported by households in the study areas suggesting chicken-owning households value and benefit from NDV vaccines, but face other barriers to vaccination. Previous vaccination had the largest positive effect size on WTP suggesting smallholders observe benefits from vaccinating. In contrast to studies of vaccination of higher-cost cattle where off-farm income sources often drive willingness to pay, on-farm income was a driver of WTP for NDV vaccines suggesting different drivers affect protection of low-value livestock assets as compared to high-value assets.

Newcastle disease vaccine adoption by smallholder households in Tanzania: Identifying determinants and barriers.

BACKGROUND: Food security is critical to achieving sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and political and economic stability. Livestock have the potential to improve the food security of smallholder households in developing countries, but livestock productivity is constrained by disease. The extent to which households adopt innovations such as vaccines impacts disease control; however, the behavioral and economic drivers underlying household decisions to adopt or forgo vaccination are not well understood. We address this gap with a study of adoption of Newcastle disease (ND) vaccines by chicken-owning households in Tanzania. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was administered to 535 households owning indigenous chickens in Arusha, Singida, and Mbeya regions in Tanzania. We measured potential predictors of ND vaccine adoption including knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors correlated with three stages of household adoption: awareness of ND vaccines, previous vaccination, and recent vaccination (within four months) consistent with veterinary guidelines. RESULTS: Eighty percent of households were aware of ND vaccines, 57% had previously vaccinated, and 26% had recently vaccinated. Knowing someone who vaccinated increased the odds of a household previously vaccinating [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.32, 95% CI: 1.1-1.5]. Larger flock size was also associated with higher odds of previous vaccination (AOR: 1.03 for a one chicken increase, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05). Usage of traditional medicine decreased the odds of previously vaccination (AOR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.36-0.95). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that encouraging the flow of professional-level knowledge within the community by vaccine adopters is a strategy to increase vaccine adoption. Enhancing local chicken productivity through increased vaccine coverage would strengthen a key smallholder household resource for food and economic security.

Waves of endemic foot-and-mouth disease in eastern Africa suggest feasibility of proactive vaccination approaches.

Livestock production in Africa is key to national economies, food security and rural livelihoods, and > 85% of livestock keepers live in extreme poverty. With poverty elimination central to the Sustainable Development Goals, livestock keepers are therefore critically important. Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious livestock disease widespread in Africa that contributes to this poverty. Despite its US$2.3 billion impact, control of the disease is not prioritized: standard vaccination regimens are too costly, its impact on the poorest is underestimated, and its epidemiology is too weakly understood. Our integrated analysis in Tanzania shows that the disease is of high concern, reduces household budgets for human health, and has major impacts on milk production and draft power for crop production. Critically, foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in cattle are driven by livestock-related factors with a pattern of changing serotype dominance over time. Contrary to findings in southern Africa, we find no evidence of frequent infection from wildlife, with outbreaks in cattle sweeping slowly across the region through a sequence of dominant serotypes. This regularity suggests that timely identification of the epidemic serotype could allow proactive vaccination ahead of the wave of infection, mitigating impacts, and our preliminary matching work has identified potential vaccine candidates. This strategy is more realistic than wildlife-livestock separation or conventional foot-and-mouth disease vaccination approaches. Overall, we provide strong evidence for the feasibility of coordinated foot-and-mouth disease control as part of livestock development policies in eastern Africa, and our integrated socioeconomic, epidemiological, laboratory and modelling approach provides a framework for the study of other disease systems.

Spatial and temporal risk as drivers for adoption of foot and mouth disease vaccination.

Identifying the drivers of vaccine adoption decisions under varying levels of perceived disease risk and benefit provides insight into what can limit or enhance vaccination uptake. To address the relationship of perceived benefit relative to temporal and spatial risk, we surveyed 432 pastoralist households in northern Tanzania on vaccination for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Unlike human health vaccination decisions where beliefs regarding adverse, personal health effects factor heavily into perceived risk, decisions for animal vaccination focus disproportionately on dynamic risks to animal productivity. We extended a commonly used stated preference survey methodology, willingness to pay, to elicit responses for a routine vaccination strategy applied biannually and an emergency strategy applied in reaction to spatially variable, hypothetical outbreaks. Our results show that households place a higher value on vaccination as perceived risk and household capacity to cope with resource constraints increase, but that the episodic and unpredictable spatial and temporal spread of FMD contributes to increased levels of uncertainty regarding the benefit of vaccination. In addition, concerns regarding the performance of the vaccine underlie decisions for both routine and emergency vaccination, indicating a need for within community messaging and documentation of the household and population level benefits of FMD vaccination.

Livestock vaccinations translate into increased human capital and school attendance by girls.

To fulfill the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is useful to understand whether and how specific agricultural interventions improve human health, educational opportunity, and food security. In sub-Saharan Africa, 75% of the population is engaged in small-scale farming, and 80% of these households keep livestock, which represent a critical asset and provide protection against economic shock. For the 50 million pastoralists, livestock play an even greater role. Livestock productivity for pastoralist households is constrained by multiple factors, including infectious disease. East Coast fever, a tick-borne protozoal disease, is the leading cause of calf mortality in large regions of eastern and Southern Africa. We examined pastoralist decisions to adopt vaccination against East Coast fever and the economic outcomes of adoption. Our estimation strategy provides an integrated model of adoption and impact that includes direct effects of vaccination on livestock health and productivity outcomes, as well as indirect effects on household expenditures, such as child education, food, and health care. On the basis of a cross-sectional study of Kenyan pastoralist households, we found that vaccination provides significant net income benefits from reduction in livestock mortality, increased milk production, and savings by reducing antibiotic and acaricide treatments. Households directed the increased income resulting from East Coast fever vaccination into childhood education and food purchase. These indirect effects of livestock vaccination provide a positive impact on rural, livestock-dependent families, contributing to poverty alleviation at the household level and more broadly to achieving SDGs.

Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility.

This study evaluates the economic consequences of hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease releases from the future National Bio and Agro Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Using an economic framework that estimates the impacts to agricultural firms and consumers, quantifies costs to non-agricultural activities in the epidemiologically impacted region, and assesses costs of response to the government, we find the distribution of economic impacts to be very significant. Furthermore, agricultural firms and consumers bear most of the impacts followed by the government and the regional non-agricultural firms.

Linking human health and livestock health: a "one-health" platform for integrated analysis of human health, livestock health, and economic welfare in livestock dependent communities.

BACKGROUND: For most rural households in sub-Saharan Africa, healthy livestock play a key role in averting the burden associated with zoonotic diseases, and in meeting household nutritional and socio-economic needs. However, there is limited understanding of the complex nutritional, socio-economic, and zoonotic pathways that link livestock health to human health and welfare. Here we describe a platform for integrated human health, animal health and economic welfare analysis designed to address this challenge. We provide baseline epidemiological data on disease syndromes in humans and the animals they keep, and provide examples of relationships between human health, animal health and household socio-economic status. METHOD: We designed a study to obtain syndromic disease data in animals along with economic and behavioral information for 1500 rural households in Western Kenya already participating in a human syndromic disease surveillance study. Data collection started in February 2013, and each household is visited bi-weekly and data on four human syndromes (fever, jaundice, diarrhea and respiratory illness) and nine animal syndromes (death, respiratory, reproductive, musculoskeletal, nervous, urogenital, digestive, udder disorders, and skin disorders in cattle, sheep, goats and chickens) are collected. Additionally, data from a comprehensive socio-economic survey is collected every 3 months in each of the study households. FINDINGS: Data from the first year of study showed 93% of the households owned at least one form of livestock (55%, 19%, 41% and 88% own cattle, sheep, goats and chickens respectively). Digestive disorders, mainly diarrhea episodes, were the most common syndromes observed in cattle, goats and sheep, accounting for 56% of all livestock syndromes, followed by respiratory illnesses (18%). In humans, respiratory illnesses accounted for 54% of all illnesses reported, followed by acute febrile illnesses (40%) and diarrhea illnesses (5%). While controlling for household size, the incidence of human illness increased 1.31-fold for every 10 cases of animal illness or death observed (95% CI 1.16-1.49). Access and utilization of animal source foods such as milk and eggs were positively associated with the number of cattle and chickens owned by the household. Additionally, health care seeking was correlated with household incomes and wealth, which were in turn correlated with livestock herd size. CONCLUSION: This study platform provides a unique longitudinal dataset that allows for the determination and quantification of linkages between human and animal health, including the impact of healthy animals on human disease averted, malnutrition, household educational attainment, and income levels.

Endogenously determined cycles: empirical evidence from livestock industries.

This paper applies the techniques of phase space reconstruction and recurrence quantification analysis to investigate U.S. livestock cycles in relation to recent literature on the business cycle. Results are presented for pork and cattle cycles, providing empirical evidence that the cycles themselves have slowly diminished. By comparing the evolution of production processes for the two livestock cycles we argue that the major cause for this moderation is largely endogenous. The analysis suggests that previous theoretical models relying solely on exogenous shocks to create cyclical patterns do not fully capture changes in system dynamics. Specifically, the biological constraint in livestock dynamics has become less significant while technology and information are relatively more significant. Concurrently, vertical integration of the supply chain may have improved inventory management, all resulting in a small, less deterministic, cyclical effect.